2024 South African general election, 29 May:

[Mike88]

Curious to see how this pans out. DA in a coalition with ANC... not sure if this isn't a "kiss of the death" for DA.

[Biden 2024]

What's the current state of the cabinet composition process? Saw something about how there are rumors of the creation of two Deputy President posts (as happened w/ Mbeki/de Klerk in the 90s), which apparently is constitutionally dubious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Deputy President" is a linguistic abomination frankly. Just call it Vice President ffs.

[Flyersfan232]

"Deputy President" is a linguistic abomination frankly. Just call it Vice President ffs.

inst it more of a deputy prime minister role in Southern Africa ((just make the president a ceremonial head of state and have prime minister it be easier))

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Curious to see how this pans out. DA in a coalition with ANC... not sure if this isn't a "kiss of the death" for DA.

Honestly, even if it's just a continuation of ANC policies with increased oversight over cronyism/corruption, I think it'll be a win for SA.

[Logical]

LMAO
https://twitter.com/MyPAConline/status/1803096578141372684

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/political-parties/ff-plus-becomes-the-seventh-party-to-join-gnu-20240620

so from what I've gathered, the incoming government is:

ANC (159)
DA (87)
IFP (17)
PA (9)
VF+ (6)
Good (1)
PAC (1)

I don't even know what to make of this makeup on an ideological level, though obviously for anyone smaller than IFP ideology is kinda secondary to the power gained here, as seen by PAC joining with the ANC for the first time in their ~70 year history.

Either way, seeing the VF+, descended from (and probably still strongly supported by?) Apartheid nostalgics, entering government with the ANC, is absurdly hilarious.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Also, MKP, EFF, UDM, ATM, Al Jama-ah, and UAT have formed the "progressive caucus" of opposition to the incoming government.

https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/coalition-nation-mk-party-to-join-eff-atm-others-in-progressive-caucus-20240617


I do wonder if EFF makes a serious play for Zulu voters if Zuma dies and MKP falls apart (as I predict if he dies before the next election) trying to paint themselves as his successors or something.

[JimJamUK]

Also, MKP, EFF, UDM, ATM, Al Jama-ah, and UAT have formed the "progressive caucus" of opposition to the incoming government.

Lol wut?

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Also, MKP, EFF, UDM, ATM, Al Jama-ah, and UAT have formed the "progressive caucus" of opposition to the incoming government.

Lol wut?

Don't look at me either, man.

Regarding my comment on if EFF tries to take MK's place if Zuma dies, that's assuming that Malema and Zuma don't butt heads with their massive egos before that. I think it's much more likely that the "progressive caucus" falls apart due to the egos of the 2 first.

[Flyersfan232]

Also, MKP, EFF, UDM, ATM, Al Jama-ah, and UAT have formed the "progressive caucus" of opposition to the incoming government.

Lol wut?

Don't look at me either, man.

Regarding my comment on if EFF tries to take MK's place if Zuma dies, that's assuming that Malema and Zuma don't butt heads with their massive egos before that. I think it's much more likely that the "progressive caucus" falls apart due to the egos of the 2 first.

dont zuma got more kids then mk got mps?

[Hash]

Either way, seeing the VF+, descended from (and probably still strongly supported by?) Apartheid nostalgics, entering government with the ANC, is absurdly hilarious.

Interestingly, Pieter Mulder, the former leader of VF+, was Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries from 2009 to 2014 in Zuma's first cabinet. The party accepted the cabinet position on condition that they could still criticize the government, and was part of the freshly-elected Zuma reaching out to Afrikaners and others to form a broader 'national unity' government (he also offered Buthelezi a cabinet position, but Buthelezi would only have taken a full ministerial position).

There's a recent interview with Mulder here about this.

Of course, you also have the remnants of the National Party dissolving into the ANC (and the party's last leader going on to serve ten years in cabinet).

[Arson Plus]

If DA/FF+’s voter bases leave them where would they go? ActionSA or would that be too black for them?

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/government/coalition-nation-rise-mzansi-the-latest-party-to-sign-gnu-statement-of-intent-20240622

RISE to join the government, apparently UDM and Al Jama-ah have also agreed to join? They really do seem to be trying to get everyone outside MKP and EFF to join at this point. I can't imagine it's good for stability regarding infighting especially over the portfolios given to the smaller parties.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

As expected this is a mess, plus Cosatu, the largest trade union in SA, is complaining about not being consulted regarding  the makeup of the coalition.

https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/political-parties/live-all-the-latest-news-analysis-and-results-from-the-2024-south-african-general-elections-20240527

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

So y’all remember how I’ve posted about black first land first, the tiny party that is actually anti-white (and basically anti-non black) racist? Well, they supported MKP, and now their leader has been sworn in as an MP for MKP:

Former EFF MP and Black First Land First leader Andile Mngxitama ahead of his swearing-in as an MK MP. (Jan Gerber/News24)

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

starting to feel like we could head to an early election:
SA president hits out at coalition partner in fierce row
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz4731znn10o

Mr Ramaphosa penned his furious letter after giving the DA a final offer of six cabinet posts, according to local media reports.

The DA then demanded two further posts, reports the News24 website, which angered the ANC's top brass.

Mr Ramaphosa's letter accused the DA leader of "moving the goalposts" during the negotiation process.

...

In response to this snub, says News 24, the DA's leaders told Mr Ramaphosa the "deal is off" unless he sticks to the earlier agreement that the two parties made.

[Logical]

It might be over before it even began?
https://twitter.com/IOL/status/1806363956518244663

[Cassius]

I mean it was always a bit unbelievable to begin with that the DA and the ANC would be able to successfully cut a deal. In order to avoid getting wiped out come the next election, the DA would have to be in the driving seat of the government and, more importantly, be seen to be in the driving seat (and even then that might not be enough given SA’s intractable problems and the enormous divergence of interests between core DA supporters and supporters of the ANC), which of course would be diametrically against the interests of the ANC.

[Yelnoc]

Wow that was fast.

Is there time for the ANC "left wing" to oust Ramaphosa and cut a deal with the EFF? Those two parties combine for 198 seats, so they would only need to bring in a couple of minors to have an (extremely slim) majority.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean it was always a bit unbelievable to begin with that the DA and the ANC would be able to successfully cut a deal. In order to avoid getting wiped out come the next election, the DA would have to be in the driving seat of the government and, more importantly, be seen to be in the driving seat (and even then that might not be enough given SA’s intractable problems and the enormous divergence of interests between core DA supporters and supporters of the ANC), which of course would be diametrically against the interests of the ANC.

I mean...wiped out in favor of whom? PA and FF+ were also in the coalition. At the end of the day, despite all attempts to break the perception, DA remains almost entirely a vehicle for White (and at times other non-African) votes. This locks them at a very fixed share of the vote. This shouldn't be surprising, there are many (far too many to list) comparable parties around the world who represent sizable minority populations and become permeant features of the political system cause their voters refuse to alter their allegiances barring party implosion. Which again makes sense cause only unity can position the population to have any voice in the political system, and alternatives are hamstrung from appearing since they cannot offer a different path to power since the populations' electoral ceiling isn't going anywhere.

No, it's the ANC who had more to fear from such a coalition. The ANC have yet to demonstrate an alternative to the narrative of long term decline caused by distance from apartheid and generational turnover. It's a multi-party system so of course there is room for much more than one big African party. However, we have not yet reached the point of total ANC collapse, so politicians are still hesitant about the DA, and the DA still has national ambitions. The DA cannot yet be treated like a how a minority party in almost every other multi-party system is: a party that joins any government to ensure access and a voice. That was seemingly what the ANC was going for, but they still have too many competing interests who have yet to walk away from their tent to make things work.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Wow that was fast.

Is there time for the ANC "left wing" to oust Ramaphosa and cut a deal with the EFF? Those two parties combine for 198 seats, so they would only need to bring in a couple of minors to have an (extremely slim) majority.

I suppose it's possible but honestly possibly just as untenable as ANC-DA would be. The difference there is less policy and more butting egos, especially if MK has to be brought in.

[parochial boy]

Fwiw, negotiations are continuing, so the claims that it is all over is a little bit premature. Seemingly yesterday's letters were a negotiating tactic, but the DA decided to carry on with discussions. As it is worth remembering, this is uncharted territory in South Africa but the mood over the last few weeks has made an eventual coalition between the ANC and Malema (even less Zuma) seem further off than what seemed previously.

I do want to emphasise that Oryxslayer is absolutely right here. A lot of people have this impression that this will be a european style coalition situation where the junior partner is punished for their participation. This isn't the case here. The DA and its supporters are under no illusion about what their party is and who votes for it. They know that they are an ethnic party that will never win a majority (or as Helen Zille is on record as saying, have no interest in doing so) or viably find themselves in conjecture when they can lead a majority government. All the more so as they have effectively decided to entrench themselves as a white (and Indian) party at the expense of a Coloured electorate that always been much more volatile.

Which is why it was the DA and its supporters who were the most actively cheering the formation of the communication, while the ANC and other party's supporters were much more sour on it. For the DA's supporters, the coalition was a victory and it's communication was very much confirming this. And is possibly why Ramaphosa decided to up the stakes, he realises how much the DA need this to work for their own credibility.

[Cassius]

Fair comments, but I think that was the point I was broadly trying to make? In order to survive a coalition government intact, the DA needs to extract heavy concessions from the ANC, concessions that will be unpopular with ANC members and supporters and ones that it won’t want to make as it is still by far the largest party (and the only one that can claim, broadly, to be a truly ‘national party’). If the DA fails to do this and ends up being perceived as having ‘sold out’ the interests of its electorate, the barriers to entry for a new party representing ‘white interests’ (although I imagine it wouldn’t explicitly market itself as such) are very low, given proportional representation and the low threshold required to enter parliament.

After all, the DA owes its current formulation to very similar movements in the 1999 general election, when large numbers of white voters decamped to it from the National Party thanks to the latter’s lack of definition (were they going to be a collaborative coalition partner with the ANC; a representative of white and coloured interests in government; or an opposition party?) versus the then DP’s consistently critical stance of the government. Given the enormous gulf between the electorates of the DA and the ANC (and of course, the ANC will be looking to try and regain voters that it has lost to EFF and MK) and the visceral ill-feeling (to put it mildly) that exists between the two parties, coalition negotiations become a zero-sum game in which one side has to be seen to win at the expense of the other, which isn’t conducive to government formation.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Do the DA's voters really demand heavy concessions though? They seem to just want Ramaphosa's gradual reforms to continue and be allowed to keep managing Western Cape by themselves.