French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Epaminondas]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

Nationalist bloc ~ 220 seats
Rainbow Left bloc ~ 180
Macron bloc ~ 100
Conservative bloc ~ 50
Independents ~ 20

Doesn't sound unreasonable, though how any alliance gets to 290 from there is a mystery.

[Epaminondas]

While the same source said he was not “thinking about” another crack at the presidency in 2027, another Socialist Party figure told the paper: “If he can come back, he will come back.”

Looking back in December at his five-year mandate from 2012 to 2017, Mr Hollande said: “I’d thought of a campaign slogan if I’d stood for re-election. It was ‘All things considered, it wasn’t so bad’.”

Asked why he was so popular with young French people, he recently said: “For those aged between 18 and 25, I’m the president of their childhood. There was Father Christmas and the president. I was the president. They still like me.”

The man is optimistic, I'll say that.

He must have memory-holed 2017.
Was talking to a relative in France recently, usually quite uninvolved in politics, who brought up and still vividly resents Holland for his scooter saga - which I'd completely forgotten.

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

Marine has three kids all from first marriage that lasted between 1994-2000 so all are in their mid to early 20s currently

None are Le Pen though, French law remained conservative until recently regarding naming conventions of children to married parents.

[Epaminondas]

I get that in any event he would not be appealing to me personally, but is the French left caught in a spiral in which they have to suck it up and stomach the man, or are there redeemable features? Or is it just Le Pen making Melenchon look acceptable to some by virtue of comparison?

Le Pen wants to solve problems by letting people die or suffer. Mélenchon believes in positive ideals of democracy and egalitarianism. There's a reason young people and Muslims vote for him rather than the PS, and it's not his youth.
If you don't see the difference, you've been had by the both-sideism zeitgeist.

The Russia stuff is a throwaway plank of his platform - he has little interest in foreign affairs (not sure he even speaks English), he just reflexively cannot abide the US dictating French politics.

[Epaminondas]

REN seems to be prepared to come 3rd in almost every triangular contest, yet refusing to drop out due to false equivalences between Left and Extreme Right in order to help the RN and hope the ensuing chaos keeps their voters from straying.

However on these numbers, I can't see how they survive extinction in 2027 when they will be locked out of the second round and roundly loathed by 70% of the population.

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

There was a post in a previous France elections megathread that suggested Brittany’s historically strong Catholicism and/or history industrialization has made it more resistant to the “populist” right, which is generally stronger in less religious, post-industrial areas that haven’t experienced economic revitalization. Too lazy to find it atm.

True for Catholic tradition, not to mention a very large civil service sector, and Brittany remains the second wealthiest province by income after Alsace if memory serves.
Ironic that this is where the Le Pen family traces its roots.

[Epaminondas]

One thing I don't understand is why they allow these "triangulaires" at all? Why not treat the legislative elections like the Presidential elections and just drop everyone except the top 2 candidates?

I think it was set up by Giscard d'Estaing in 1976 as a sop to quell demands for proportional representation in the Assembly, which did not appeal to him. It's not quite as awful as 2-round FPTP, but still pretty bad absent any cordon sanitaire.

Ranked ballot would help to sanitize politics in France.

[Epaminondas]

Voting is open for French voters abroad: https://votefae.diplomatie.gouv.fr/pages/identification.htm

[Epaminondas]

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

11 of the 12 constituencies abroad will likely have no RN in the second round, with Israel the odd one out.

[Epaminondas]

Some cross-stats on life satisfaction vs. voting intention



Macron's party has captured satisfied voters, Rassemblement vote propensity is directly proportional to dissatisfaction.

[Epaminondas]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

[Epaminondas]

If it has different names, then Bretagne (French) is also correct, just like Brittany; Bretanha or Breizh. Not sure you would be bothered about which name people use, unless you’re a British nationalist or something who believes the region should be theirs or something like that, wanting others to use name in English.

Not if you're trying to write in correct English. Just charitably trying to help you avoid mistakes.

I have a grandparent who spoke Breton, and am as much of a British nationalist as you are a Portuguese nationalist.

[Epaminondas]

It seems any Ensemble-NFP mutual withdrawal agreement would disproportionately benefit Macron's party.

There are already dozens of seats where NFP is within a few points of second place, while Ensemble comes third mostly by a good length.

[Epaminondas]

The deeper I look, the more dire the situation looks for the Nouveau Front Populaire. They are coming first in the big cities or where the far right is split, second in deep RN territory, and third everywhere else.

I am now sceptical they even keep their current 150 seats. Devastating.

[Epaminondas]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

Bretagne is the correct name, i mean i don't know why you criticize him? We say Bretagne in dutch too. Brittany sounds goofy, reminds me of Britney Spears.

Should we say you're from Belgique then? Just plain weird to be contrarian on such an open and shut case. It's Brittany in English, now do as you wish.

[Epaminondas]

The maps makes France look like the US since 2016: an almost direct correlation between location appeal and wealth and the vote for the far right.

Nobody would choose to move to the Meuse -> 50% RN
Everybody wants to visit Rennes -> 20% RN

This leaves large swathes of France open to populism. Might still not be enough to win the presidency in 2027, but it means the RN is almost sure to retain 200+ seats and have an outsize say in the assembly, which is favourable to rural areas, for decades to come.

...and when all is said and done, NFP beat RN by 33,000 votes.

Trying to understand this: you've added up all Nouveau Front Populaire votes, dissident left votes, and far left votes, and compared them again a standalone Front National, is that it?

[Epaminondas]

Can someone recall what Mélenchon's instructions after round 1 of the legislative election in 2017 and 2022 were?

[Epaminondas]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

Of course, it's an illusion thanks to the Parisian thumb on the scale, and to the RN figure not including the Ciotti crowd...

Precisely. The voting share of NFP outside of Paris is actually dismal, possibly below 20%.

[Epaminondas]

I'm seeing a few seats with RN third and LR fourth where a possibly coalescing of the far right could leapfrog NFP/Ens to first if they refuse to withdraw.

Have any instructions to stand down been given to candidates who came second?

[Epaminondas]

Despite massive reluctance from Macron's incumbents to stand down and give up prematurely on their career, the political pressure has paid and only a few of the worst-case scenarios remain (RN first, then NFP 2nd and the 3rd Ensemble candidate refusing to withdraw).

I count:
- Val d'Oise 1
- Essonne 2
- Rhone 8
- Hérault 1
- Bouches du Rhone 14
- Alpes Maritimes 1

Very close (RN second by a whisker):
- Haute-Vienne 3
- Somme 2
- Loire-Atlantique 9

Alpes Maritimes 1 is shocking as it helps Ciotti retain his seat, rewarding his party betrayal.

Can't understand Finistère 3, where both left-wing candidates (together 40%) withdrew against RN (31%) and LR (28%)

[Epaminondas]

You have 41 constituencies where Ens candidates are not dropping out despite RN being first or second, when Le Monde counts only 18 left. Can you double check your numbers?

This made me smile: these were the constituency numbers, not the tally! And I specifically narrowed it down to RN first, NFP second and non-withdrawing Macronista third, of which I count only 4 now
- Val d'Oise 1: Émilie Chandler (Ens)
- Rhone 8: Dominique Despras (Ens)
- Bouches du Rhone 14: Anne-Laurence Petel (Ens)
- Alpes Maritimes 1: Graig Monetti (Ens)

And then others where RN came second by a whisker and may still win, with the third staying in:
- Haute-Vienne 3: Gilles Toulza (Divers Centre)
- Somme 2: Hubert de Jenlis (Ens)
- Loire-Atlantique 9: Helene Macon (LFI)

I may have missed some.

[Epaminondas]

Queer situation in Rhone 8 where the Macronist Dominique Despras filed for the second round at 5pm Tuesday, then 2 hours later announced he was withdrawing. However, since this was after the 6pm deadline, he is officially a candidate, thus he will refuse to provide ballots with his name.

[Epaminondas]

I hate to say it but whatever the outcome of the election the RN wins:

If they win a majority then they win and they take power and start implementing their ludicrous agenda. The only downside is that they would likely disappoint their supporters and become unpopular and be stuck with a record to defend in 2027.

If they fall short of a majority then someone has to form a government that spans everything from LFI to Macronists - and impossible task. The Assembly was already ungovernable when the Macron block was just short of a majority and all they needed was to peel off some votes from LR or some some of the more moderate left parties. So LePen can sit back and watch the chaos unfold and in 2027 she can say "its me or chaos"

This is just lazy punditry, you can easily spin this on its head and say either way RN loses:
- if they win a bare majority then Macron's opposition and infighting will lead to very little being achieved and them losing their status as disruptors
- if they fall short despite everything going their way this time, after defeats in 2017 and 2022, they will no longer be seen as viable by the time 2027 comes around, after LR tacks to anti-immigration and more fringe parties appear.

[Epaminondas]

I count 7 seats where the lack of Ens-NFP cooperation is likely to gift the win to the RN. How much will this matter?

- Alpes-Maritimes 1
- Bouches du Rhones 14
- Finistère 2
- Seine et Marne 1
- Somme 2
- Haute-Vienne 3
- Val d'Oise 1


In Maine et Loire 5, the RN candidate faked a withdrawal before registering at the last second to trick his way into a triangular, but the third LFI candidate prevented this by withdrawing her ballots.

[Epaminondas]

There doesn't seem to be much competition in the outre-mer circumscriptions, almost all seem to be a massive first round lead for the incumbent. Is this typical?

Since I vote in one, I have some insights here. Overseas participation has never been high, the norm is below 30%.
2012 was the first ever such election, and split between PS and UMP.
In 2017 most incumbents were swept out by the Macron campaign, a particularly good fit for wealthier, business-minded expats. They hung on in 2022 and 2024, increasingly at odds with the mainland.