Who wins NC-GOV?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins NC-GOV?

[Spectator]

Stein, and frankly I don’t think it will be all that close as far as North Carolina elections go. A 52-46 win even as Trump takes NC.

[Spectator]

Just gonna add, this race seems to have polling all over the ing place, so seems best to go on vibes/gut. We’ve had polls from narrow Robinson leads to polls where Stein is up almost 10. No one knows wtf is going on. This reminds me very much of PA 2022 and AZ 2022 where polls were all over the place but in the end the fundamentals won out and the perceived weak and flawed candidates were, in fact, extremely weak and flawed.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Stein. No, MUH PoLAriZaTion will not be enough for Robinson to win. I don't think Robinson could even win with a double digit Trump win

[Schiff for Senate]

Stein. It's the margin that's iffy, not the outcome.

[They not like us]

Governor Josh S supremacy

[President Johnson]

I'd still put my stock in Stein. By two or three points.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Still Stein, but he won't outrun Biden by double digits.

[Schiff for Senate]

Still Stein, but he won't outrun Biden by double digits.

Agreed. I expect maybe something on the lower end of a 5–7-point overperformance by Stein.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Stein, but I'm not certain.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Gubernatorial elections are routinely more elastic than pretty much all other statewide races (see Kentucky 2023). NC is pretty ineslastic, but I think Stein will win with 51, 52%

[Fuzzy Bear]

Robinson will win, running close with Trump, who will win NC.

Both candidates are (A) running even with each other and (B) running well under 50%, suggesting that many voters want something else.  Unless something new and drastic happens, I suspect that this race will be a narrow GOP win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stein by 4-5 points

[JMT]

I agree with others here, at this point. I suspect Stein wins in a close-ish race (something like 52% - 48% victory).

[Duke of York]

Stein. Robinson is too far right and extreme to win an office that has actual power.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Stein. He was elected & reelected as Attorney General even as Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020.  There will be ticket splitting that does this again for the Governor race while keeping the General Assembly in Republican hands.

[JGibson]

Stein, by 3.3.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Stein is probably still narrowly favored (Tilt D), but it doesn't look like this race is going to be Shapiro Mastriano part 2 at this point like some people have theorized about. In 2020 Cooper had net positive approval and was polling around double digits ahead. He only ended up winning by 4.5% which was one of the big surprises of the night.

NC is still a southern polarized state unlike Pennsylvania. Assuming NC goes how we expect, NC will have a Trump-voting electorate whereas PA 2022 had a Biden+3 one (although even a narrow Trump one wouldn't have saved Mastriano). Ultimately the outcome of this race probably ranges from Stein+3 to Robinson+2, and the more Trump can win NC by the better it is for the latter.

[Tekken_Guy]

Stein is probably still narrowly favored (Tilt D), but it doesn't look like this race is going to be Shapiro Mastriano part 2 at this point like some people have theorized about. In 2020 Cooper had net positive approval and was polling around double digits ahead. He only ended up winning by 4.5% which was one of the big surprises of the night.

NC is still a southern polarized state unlike Pennsylvania. Assuming NC goes how we expect, NC will have a Trump-voting electorate whereas PA 2022 had a Biden+3 one (although even a narrow Trump one wouldn't have saved Mastriano). Ultimately the outcome of this race probably ranges from Stein+3 to Robinson+2, and the more Trump can win NC by the better it is for the latter.

How much do you think Trump needs to win NC by to pull Robinson across?

[Schiff for Senate]

Gubernatorial elections are routinely more elastic than pretty much all other statewide races (see Kentucky 2023). NC is pretty ineslastic, but I think Stein will win with 51, 52%

This. The situation isn’t nearly as bad for Robinson as it was for Mastriano, but candidate quality still always makes a difference in any gubernatorial election.

Stein is probably still narrowly favored (Tilt D), but it doesn't look like this race is going to be Shapiro Mastriano part 2 at this point like some people have theorized about. In 2020 Cooper had net positive approval and was polling around double digits ahead. He only ended up winning by 4.5% which was one of the big surprises of the night.

NC is still a southern polarized state unlike Pennsylvania. Assuming NC goes how we expect, NC will have a Trump-voting electorate whereas PA 2022 had a Biden+3 one (although even a narrow Trump one wouldn't have saved Mastriano). Ultimately the outcome of this race probably ranges from Stein+3 to Robinson+2, and the more Trump can win NC by the better it is for the latter.

Agree with your point that NC is less elastic than PA, but I still think Stein will do better than you’re predicting. I’d say it’s more Lean than Tilt D fs, and I expect a margin similar to Cooper 2020.

Robinson will win, running close with Trump, who will win NC.

Both candidates are (A) running even with each other and (B) running well under 50%, suggesting that many voters want something else.  Unless something new and drastic happens, I suspect that this race will be a narrow GOP win.

Yes, Trump will win NC, but Robinson certainly won’t preform the same as or just behind Trump just because he has an (R) in his name. You’re underestimating the importance of candidate quality in these races; if you want proof it makes a difference, look no further than the last two gubernatorial races in NC itself (especially 2020).