6/18 Congressional Primaries Discussion: VA, OK, GA

[Tekken_Guy]

Time for the first incumbent defeat of the cycle in Bob Bad, then probably another next week in Bowman.

I still don't really get why Bob Good is in so much danger...don't Republican primary electorates tend to love the furthest right insane MAGA candidate possible? I know he was an issue for McCarthy and during the election to replace him, but some Republicans who were *too* loyal to him have faced close calls this cycle.

Trump.

[Oryxslayer]

Time for the first incumbent defeat of the cycle in Bob Bad, then probably another next week in Bowman.

I still don't really get why Bob Good is in so much danger...don't Republican primary electorates tend to love the furthest right insane MAGA candidate possible? I know he was an issue for McCarthy and during the election to replace him, but some Republicans who were *too* loyal to him have faced close calls this cycle.

For different reasons he's pissed off almost every faction of the national and state party, leading to an unholy grand alliance of opposition. Including Trump. This is also his first taste of the VA primary electorate, previously getting nominated through the even-more-ideological conventions.

Anyway, McGuire still probably wins by a decent degree unless a unknown trend emerges. He's a Richmond based-politician an the district(s) he's represented cover the suburbs/exurbs not currently reporting.

[Proud Independent]

Time for the first incumbent defeat of the cycle in Bob Bad, then probably another next week in Bowman.

I still don't really get why Bob Good is in so much danger...don't Republican primary electorates tend to love the furthest right insane MAGA candidate possible? I know he was an issue for McCarthy and during the election to replace him, but some Republicans who were *too* loyal to him have faced close calls this cycle.

One of the issues his voters have with him is that he keeps flip flopping, they don't know where he stands on certain issues.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

GA-2 R: Johnson
GA-3 R: Jack
GA-14 D: Harris

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1803212924472967493

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

MAGA acolyte Brian Jack wins the Republican primary to replace Drew Ferguson in GA-03. YIKES, that is a rough 36...

[Tekken_Guy]

MAGA acolyte Brian Jack wins the Republican primary to replace Drew Ferguson in GA-03. YIKES, that is a rough 36...

Despite the Trump endorsement, Jack's fairly establishment-friendly. He was a long-time operative for the RNC and AIPAC before he joined Trump in the WH.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

VA 2 D: Smasal
VA 7 D: Vindman
VA 10 R: Clancy

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 5 D
VA 5 R
VA 7 R
VA 10 D
VA 11 D

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

VA-07 and VA-10 are weird because they are on the cusp of being competitive but still clearly D-favored, especially VA-10. I haven't really followed the R primaries there to know if Mike Clancy or Derrick Anderson are good candidates who could make it competitive though.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1803214427920941237

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

VA 5 D: Witt
VA 5 R: McGuire
VA 11 D: Connolly

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 7 R
VA 10 D

[Tekken_Guy]

VA 5 D: Witt
VA 5 R: McGuire
VA 11 D: Connolly

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 7 R
VA 10 D

Too early to call for McGuire. I don't believe that Danville number is right.

[Oryxslayer]

VA 5 D: Witt
VA 5 R: McGuire
VA 11 D: Connolly

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 7 R
VA 10 D

Too early to call for McGuire. I don't believe that Danville number is right.

He got fooled by the 7.5K vote data entry error (somewhere in the pipe from county to state to press) in favor of McGuire in Danville lol

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder who the Liberty University campus precinct voted for. Might be the most competitive election that precinct has had in years.

[LtNOWIS]

Prince William County largely dropped. Erased a lot of Suhas's lead in VA-10, but not enough to really give Helmer a shot, not with only a little bit out.

Chaz Nuttycombe calls it as a narrow Suhas victory.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Prince William County largely dropped. Erased a lot of Suhas's lead in VA-10, but not enough to really give Helmer a shot, not with only a little bit out.

Chaz Nuttycombe calls it as a narrow Suhas victory.

Dodged a bullet there.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Tom Cole is not facing a tough battle at all.

Also, Bob Good is slightly up now, but McGuire's Richmond-area base is largely still out. Still, this is I think closer than many people were expecting it to be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Chuck Hand, a convicted Jan. 6 rioter, thankfully lost the GA-02 R primary to Wayne Johnson.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

OK 1 D: Baker
OK 1 R: Hern
OK 3 R: Lucas
OK 4 D: Brannon
OK 4 R: Cole

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 7 R
VA 10 D
OK Corporation Commissioner R

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

VA 1 D: Mehta

Uncalled:

VA 7 R
VA 10 D
OK Corporation Commissioner R

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

VA 5 D: Witt
VA 5 R: McGuire
VA 11 D: Connolly

Uncalled:

VA 1 D
VA 7 R
VA 10 D

Too early to call for McGuire. I don't believe that Danville number is right.

Looks like I'm correct regardless

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Looks like most of the vote is in and Bob Good loses by 2%.

Denver Riggleman is avenged!

Glad we finally got a scalp, not counting the incumbent vs. incumbent race in Alabama this has been a pretty boring primary season with a few close calls but no incumbents actually losing renomination until now. I think 2022 spoiled us with a lot more drama partly because it was under new lines. Anyways, this is a step in a good direction, and we can still turn this around by tossing out Boebert, Bowman, and Bush.

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like most of the vote is in and Bob Good loses by 2%.

Denver Riggleman is avenged!

Glad we finally got a scalp, not counting the incumbent vs. incumbent race in Alabama this has been a pretty boring primary season with a few close calls but no incumbents actually losing renomination until now. I think 2022 spoiled us with a lot more drama partly because it was under new lines. Anyways, this is a step in a good direction, and we can still turn this around by tossing out Boebert, Bowman, and Bush.

Yeah, about that...

[Proud Independent]

Bob Good is now Bob Gone. However, nothing will change regardless. Mcguire is pretty much the same minus the confrontational attitude that Good had towards the media. Hell, he might be even further right than Good on some issues.

[Tekken_Guy]

% in has dropped off by quite a bit, which gives Good a path to victory...or McGuire a path to further pull away.