United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Do the parties keep reserve of names to be nominated at the last minute if the selected candidates drop out ?

[Blair]

If the greens win Bristol Centre is it because of A.) Labour's dislike among left-liberals B.) Boundary changes C.) The Greens success locally in Bristol D.) Gaza or E.) increased awareness about climate change or F.) a combination of all of them.

[TheTide]

Several events that could have a major impact on the campaign are due later today. Farage is making what he calls an "emergency announcement" at 4PM, with rumours being that it might be that he's standing in Clacton after all. There are also at least two more MRPs (from YouGov and More in Common) set to be released.  

[Torrain]

Aye, two MRPs, and three traditional polls (including another 10k sample poll from Redfield).

Farage rumours are all either standing in Clacton, or a last minute electoral pact. With his track record of over-hyping, I briefly wondered whether it would be a podcast announcement, but *seems* genuine.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797594409447342297

[Alcibiades]

The Tories failing to nominate a candidate in any GB constituency (other than Chorley) would be astonishing

Indeed, does anyone know when the last time this happened was?

[TheTide]

The Tories failing to nominate a candidate in any GB constituency (other than Chorley) would be astonishing

Indeed, does anyone know when the last time this happened was?

They had pacts with the Liberals in certain constituencies up until the 1960s or so IIRC.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Tories failing to nominate a candidate in any GB constituency (other than Chorley) would be astonishing

Indeed, does anyone know when the last time this happened was?

iirc Greenock 1970.
Edit: for Labour there were a good bunch in 1945 (such as Churchill's seat of Woodford, and the City of London which they never once contested) but I'm pretty sure they never missed any after.

[Alcibiades]

Edit: for Labour there were a good bunch in 1945 (such as Churchill's seat of Woodford, and the City of London which they never once contested) but I'm pretty sure they never missed any after.

Except for Tatton in 1997, of course.

[Torrain]

I'll be in the UK for the June 12th debate (In Belfast, of all places!). Will be fascinating and surreal, as a longtime observer of UK politics, to be a first hand observer of a UK general election

Oh cool - enjoy Belfast, it’s a far more chilled out city than it was even 10, let alone 20 years ago.

It’ll be particularly interesting mid-election. I was there for a conference during the run up to the 2022 Assembly election, and walking through a city with posters for five different parties was very odd in a UK context. The most multi-polar election environment I’ve been in since Berlin during the 2017 federal election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Edit: for Labour there were a good bunch in 1945 (such as Churchill's seat of Woodford, and the City of London which they never once contested) but I'm pretty sure they never missed any after.

Except for Tatton in 1997, of course.

Oh yes, that time it feels like Tatton had a by-election that coincidentally happened on the same day as the general election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rishi is currently campaigning at the Henley Regatta and being photobombed by Lib Dem rowers. Hilariously out of touch but if the Tories are this worried about Henley publicly... where on earth will they be sending the cabinet? Castle Point?

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/tomhunt1988/status/1797617028771319983
(Right wing Tory MP/candidate for Ipswich)

Hmm, Farage not only standing but taking a swath of (former) Tory MPs with him?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1797629308988768343

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1797629308988768343

if this result came to pass Liberal Democrats would be the official opposition and Sunak would become the first British Prime Minister to lose their own seat at a general election.

[Joe Republic]

Rishi is currently campaigning at the Henley Regatta and being photobombed by Lib Dem rowers. Hilariously out of touch but if the Tories are this worried about Henley publicly... where on earth will they be sending the cabinet? Castle Point?

Between Windermere and Henley, the Liberal Democrat Tactical Naval Assault Strike Force continues its highly effective campaign of terror.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Rishi is currently campaigning at the Henley Regatta and being photobombed by Lib Dem rowers. Hilariously out of touch but if the Tories are this worried about Henley publicly... where on earth will they be sending the cabinet? Castle Point?

I mean, it is very "out of touch" of LDHQ when you consider that the boat was being piloted by none other than the Lib Dem deputy leader. The BBC's coverage admits this. I'll be the first to accept in relief that at least it was not the actual Lib Dem leader.

But seriously - this is just tacky and reminds me of when the freaking Democratic National Committee did a fly-over of the first Republican debate last year to refer to prospective GOP primary voters as "the extreme MAGA base." Both were examples of literal advertising, approved at the very tip of the organogram, disguised as grassroots activism by some hopeless slackers who may or may not even hold party membership.

[Torrain]

Come on, just enjoy it for the bit of frivolous nonsense that it was
https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1797607054305280160

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Big farage announcement in three mins: standing as MP? Wants a tory pact? Grabbed a new defector or two? Launching a premium OnlyFans?

[beesley]

Someone asked me whether the 'rump' of Tory MPs would be representative of the current Tory party. Somebody else can talk about historical precedent (which is not something I should be saying as a recent history postgrad) but I thought of the following points:

-basically no MPs left who *won their seats* off the back of Brexit and its associated 'trends' (Gullis etc.). However the broader point that these MPs who were (correctly or otherwise) painted as playing very much to the kid of seat they were in still losing would also apply to other seats, as most of the marginals of 2015 and 2017 are likely to be lost. And as we said earlier the marginality of the seat doesn't really determine the kind of MP within each party.
-Tory parachute candidates in the recent selections are mostly establishment types, regardless of where they might sit on a left-right scale; until that point there were a lot of local favourite sons (and the occasional daughter) selected, like in Bromsgrove
-there will still be a few big names who would have some power to influence the course of the party no matter how badly the Tories do, in part because the fish would be bigger as the pond got smaller but also because some 'big names' (e.g. Badenoch? Truss?) have relatively 'safe' seats. They don't have to be leadership contenders.
-most Conservative MPs are kinda lame
-opposition is a 'game state' for all Tory MPs, but just as teams react differently to a losing game state in football, who knows what will happen

Someone also asked about where Reform might gain seats and would it be similar to UKIP - I thought it worth mentioning that as well as Reform being quite a bit more suited to taking votes from the Conservatives than Labour (such is the time) it also stands that had Labour had the lead in the polls they have now in 2015, then a lot of UKIP 'targets' like Thurrock, South Thanet and Great Grimsby would have not been as competitive.

[Torrain]

Squeezing in a rather bearish MRP before the Farage news:
https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1797644591048585397

[TheTide]

Tice is speaking before Farage, having been introduced by another Reform 'bigwig' (can't recall his name). He's awfully rambling, kind of the Reform answer to Sunak. Stream quality is awful, at least on Sky News.

[beesley]

Tice has announced that Farage will become leader of Reform UK

[Zinneke]

That may well be the final nail in the Conservative Party coffin.

[oldtimer]

Tice has announced that Farage will become leader of Reform UK

That's it ?