United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

Do we get another poll today??

I think Survation have an MRP out later. Surprisingly, perhaps, there haven't been any hasty VI polls in reaction to the Farage announcement (which was over 24 hours ago now).     

[Torrain]

Apparently seat projection says this would mean 40 seats for Labour in Scotland and just 7 for the SNP - sounds like what happened to the Bloc Quebecois in the 2011 Canadian federal election. I say good riddance to all separatist parties!

We've discussed the peril of UNS before, but yeah, if the SNP are anywhere below 30%, they're not in a healthy place. On these numbers, we're roughly lookin at Lib Dems holding 5 seats, Tories on course to win 4-8 seats, Labour on 30-40, and SNP picking up whatever is left.

Genuinely quite exciting, for someone of my political persuasion - while I'm taking everything with a pinch of salt, and trying to manage my expectations, it's good motivation for the fortnight I'll be spending on the campaign trail in the final 14 days of the campaign.

[Torrain]

Do we get another poll today??

Ask, and ye shall receive:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1798058386275401919

[Torrain]

Survation MRP is now out: [link]

• LAB 487
• CON 71
• LD 43
• SNP 26
• RFM 3
• PC 2

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Survation MRP is now out: [link]

• LAB 487
• CON 71
• LD 43
• SNP 26
• RFM 3
• PC 2

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Is the debate viewable at all from outside the UK?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Survation MRP is now out: [link]

• LAB 487
• CON 71
• LD 43
• SNP 26
• RFM 3
• PC 2

The most shocking thing to me is the Greens having zero seats. I’d have them at 2 myself.

I’m still bullish on PC, thinking they can get 3 or 4 seats.

SNP in the mid-20s seems more realistic than single digits imo.

[beesley]

Survation MRP is now out: [link]

• LAB 487
• CON 71
• LD 43
• SNP 26
• RFM 3
• PC 2

A different way of allocating topline figures, it's worth noting. Reform don't lead in any seats according to their MRP, but have (for example) a 25% chance in 12 and so they are given 3 in the topline. In Clacton for example they aren't ahead but in a three way race, similarly in Goole and Pocklington. That's different to how other pollsters have done it. In light of that the Green figure of 0 is more startling.

[JimJamUK]

Genuinely quite exciting, for someone of my political persuasion - while I'm taking everything with a pinch of salt, and trying to manage my expectations, it's good motivation for the fortnight I'll be spending on the campaign trail in the final 14 days of the campaign.

May I ask for which party or seats?

[Germany1994]

Do we get another poll today??

Ask, and ye shall receive:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1798058386275401919

What´s the track record of Savanta?? Are they reliable?? Don´t know all that much about British pollsters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They used to be known as ComRes and it was not unknown for them to be nastily referred to as 'Comedy Results', which may be seen as indicative. A 14pt defeat is, of course, still a massive hammering.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

A different way of allocating topline figures, it's worth noting. Reform don't lead in any seats according to their MRP, but have (for example) a 25% chance in 12 and so they are given 3 in the topline. In Clacton for example they aren't ahead but in a three way race, similarly in Goole and Pocklington. That's different to how other pollsters have done it. In light of that the Green figure of 0 is more startling.

By my count, the Tories are leading in 52 seats, so the topline is giving them a considerable number of additional seats where they are not actually ahead in the literal projected result.

Meanwhile, I count 46 for the Lib Dems, so they are very nearly projected to be ahead in more seats than the Conservatives.

That would be a truly astounding result if it were to come to pass.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Is the debate viewable at all from outside the UK?

Well, answered my own question Apparently ITV has a youtube stream for it:

https://www.youtube.com/live/heP8-evLKvA

[Torrain]

Politely asking broadcasters to stop doing this opening shot where they zoom in on the leaders standing there like carboard cutouts of themselves.


Was bad enough with the Sunak-Truss debate, where they looked like they had been badly composited in.

[TheTide]

Sunak already getting agitated.

[Torrain]

Strike "my dad was a toolmaker, my mother was a nurse" off your Keir Starmer bingo card.

[Torrain]

Keir Starmer makes the audience *audibly laugh* at Sunak's attempt to spin numbers on NHS waiting lists. First time I've seen anyone who wasn't a Labour MP laugh at a Starmer joke.

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1798087249332179084

Sunak ends the exchange with the first round of applause of the night, when he attacks junior doctors for striking.

Second applause of the night is for Starmer's line about his VAT on private schools, being the right thing, but a tough choice.

Third and fourth rounds of applause are for Starmer promising to scrap the non-dom status, and then doing some boilerplate "make them pay their fair share stuff".

[Cassius]

I did enjoy hearing about Starmer’s plan to resolve the strikes in the NHS by resolving them.

[afleitch]

Very poor moderation. Audience are automatons. Might watch something else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tories are trying hard to ensure their hold on pensioners...

[TheTide]

Starmer overall sounding a bit more left-wing than he has, i.e. the firm emphasis on not going back to austerity.

[Torrain]

Audience loved Starmer's "smash the gangs" line on immigration. He's used it in PMQs for almost a year - rare example of a good use of focus-grouping a line in UK pol.

Sunak gets an equally good audience reaction to attacking Starmer for having a line, rather than a plan.

Audience clap Sunak for threatening to leave the ECHR, and then equally enthusiastic over Starmer promising to stay in international institutions. The most Question Time moment of the evening.

[afleitch]

Etchingham: Starmer, do you like cats?
Starmer: Yes and...
Sunak: So you hate dogs.
Starmer: No I don't
Sunak: Why do you hate dogs.
Etchingham: Sunak the same question?
Starmer: Can I answer?
Etchingham: We need to move on.

And I'm saying this as someone who isn't a Starmer fan

[Storr]

Strike "my dad was a toolmaker, my mother was a nurse" off your Keir Starmer bingo card.

It may be corny, but it works when your opponent is a former hedge fund manager and as bad at connecting with the "average" person as Sunak is.

[Torrain]

Strike "my dad was a toolmaker, my mother was a nurse" off your Keir Starmer bingo card.

It may be corny, but it works when your opponent is a former hedge fund manager and as bad at connecting with the "average" person as Sunak is.

Oh, it's a meme among the politically engaged because he's hammering it home, but its definitely necessary.

Whenever you focus-group Starmer, at least one member of the group still assumes he's a member of the gentry who inherited his knighthood.