United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Epaminondas]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

Quoted for posterity:

It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

It seems being a party strategist with your reputation on the line makes you more realistic than Atlas posters, who'd have thought.

[icc]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

Quoted for posterity:

It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

It seems being a party strategist with your reputation on the line makes you more realistic than Atlas posters, who'd have thought.

Alliance have not made a deal with Sinn Féin, and doing such a thing would be political kryptonite. Sinn Féin have unilaterally decided to stand down in constituencies where they have no chance (including a couple where they routinely fail to break 2%). This will not be reciprocated by Alliance.

[Alcibiades]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

[YL]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

The only one where SF is at all relevant is Belfast South but that one is actually significant. If SF ran there would be at least a chance for the DUP to come up through the middle again as they did in 2017 (especially with the expanded seat as I think the areas of Down it expanded into are solidly unionist).

The area added are quite Unionist but they are not very big. You might think from the name change that they have added great swathes of central County Down, but it is really just the town of Saintfield and a few even smaller places. Some of the other changes help Unionism less and overall the notional DUP vote goes up by less than a percentage point. The 2017 result does show the potential for a DUP win, but I suspect demographic change since then more than cancels out the boundary change.

I do wonder whether with SF not standing and the DUP out of contention as a result, some Alliance supporters who voted for Hanna last time might go back to Alliance. But I don’t see the SDLP losing this time.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

Although I suspect Alliance standing benefits SF in both of those seats.

In any case, SF standing down in Belfast South is to the benefit of the SDLP and it's as much against the Alliance as it's against the DUP.

EDIT: Also worth noting that in 2022, SF transfers in North Down predominantly went SDLP and more went Green than Alliance; in Lagan Valley they favoured SDLP over Alliance about 75-25 and in Belfast East (where the SDLP were already eliminated) around half the SF vote didn't transfer and the remainder went Green before it went Alliance. It doesn't particularly hurt Alliance, but I don't think Naomi Long is going to be piling up the votes in Short Strand.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796468845965910348

[Flyersfan232]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

aren’t alliance defacto unionist (( based on a chat with a Irish nationalist friend in ni who said he sooner vote for the uup then the alliance

Although I suspect Alliance standing benefits SF in both of those seats.

In any case, SF standing down in Belfast South is to the benefit of the SDLP and it's as much against the Alliance as it's against the DUP.

EDIT: Also worth noting that in 2022, SF transfers in North Down predominantly went SDLP and more went Green than Alliance; in Lagan Valley they favoured SDLP over Alliance about 75-25 and in Belfast East (where the SDLP were already eliminated) around half the SF vote didn't transfer and the remainder went Green before it went Alliance. It doesn't particularly hurt Alliance, but I don't think Naomi Long is going to be piling up the votes in Short Strand.

[Torrain]

Will this election pass 2019’s record for independents running purely out of spite for their old party?
https://twitter.com/julianknight15/status/1796500892633702451

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Ray Powell option appears to have prevailed over the S.O. Davies option.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796468845965910348

It would have been too kind of the Tories to simply hand the seat to the Lib Dems.

[beesley]

Periodical update -

Sunak added Milton Keynes North, St Ives, South East Cornwall, Honiton and Sidmouth, and Central Devon.

Starmer added Worcester, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan, and Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West.

Davey added Brecon, Radnor and Cwmtawe, Frome and East Somerset, and Harpenden and Berkhamsted.

If we want to interpret things (not always a good idea) then Starmer is campaigning in the seats he needs for a majority - the particular seat usually being determined by the theme of the day, while Davey is going for a mixture of targets - obviously being involved in fewer races means that he can simply tour his targets rather than be overly specific at this stage.

[Wiswylfen]

Apparently Sir Keir was trying to get an Abdul Hai (who has a heartwarming tale of his experience with injustice on the website he was going to use) selected yesterday—the evidence does point to it. Don't like McSweeney as a rule but, if he did indeed stick his neck out, thank God he managed to stop it.

Remember, though: Faiza Shaheen liked a tweet. Says quite a bit!

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/CallumCMason/status/1796529255641460922

[afleitch]

Worth noting that the Tories at the end of Week 1 find themselves 4 points behind where they were end of Week 1 in 1997.

Labour were of course generally overstated in part because the 'I'm voting Labour' portion of those in Tory/Lib Dem seats ended up voting Lib Dem which wasn't picked up in the polls until the last few days of the campaign.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

🦀

https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1795186272954196368

I’m assuming the MRP would have the Lib Dems and Tories close, but with what approximate number? 50 would seem too low for the Tories, while 100 each seems too high. Granted, if it’s getting close to a Canada 1993 style wipeout, 50 could be about right.

https://twitter.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877

8 PM UK time tomorrow. Not sure if it’s the same MRP at the first tweet.

[oldtimer]

Worth noting that the Tories at the end of Week 1 find themselves 4 points behind where they were end of Week 1 in 1997.

Labour were of course generally overstated in part because the 'I'm voting Labour' portion of those in Tory/Lib Dem seats ended up voting Lib Dem which wasn't picked up in the polls until the last few days of the campaign.

The Conservatives started basically at 30 and ended at 30.

Labour started at 50 and ended at 43.

LD started at 12 and ended at 17.

The relative movements where tactical Lib-Lab voting that favoured the LD on net.
People had already made their minds up against the Conservatives, they just decided which anti-Tory candidate was likeliest to win in their local area.

[Torrain]

8 PM UK time tomorrow. Not sure if it’s the same MRP at the first tweet.

Different MRP - Marwan works for Electoral Calculus, whose MRP is supposed to be dropping tonight at 9pm. Calum Weir works for Opinium.

[oldtimer]

8 PM UK time tomorrow. Not sure if it’s the same MRP at the first tweet.

Different MRP - Marwan works for Electoral Calculus, whose MRP is supposed to be dropping tonight at 9pm. Calum Weir works for Opinium.

My guess given the breadth and width of the Labour lead and more limited Lab to Lib support than 1997, that it shows Labour with around 500 seats.

It doesn't feel that Labour will get 60% in Wales or Scotland and they have some trouble in muslim areas, so the Labour leads are more heavily White English this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is really very odd that there are now not one but two incumbent Conservatives running as 'Independent Conservative - Pro S[REDACTED]t'?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

Although I suspect Alliance standing benefits SF in both of those seats.

In any case, SF standing down in Belfast South is to the benefit of the SDLP and it's as much against the Alliance as it's against the DUP.

EDIT: Also worth noting that in 2022, SF transfers in North Down predominantly went SDLP and more went Green than Alliance; in Lagan Valley they favoured SDLP over Alliance about 75-25 and in Belfast East (where the SDLP were already eliminated) around half the SF vote didn't transfer and the remainder went Green before it went Alliance. It doesn't particularly hurt Alliance, but I don't think Naomi Long is going to be piling up the votes in Short Strand.

 aren’t alliance defacto unionist (( based on a chat with a Irish nationalist friend in ni who said he sooner vote for the uup then the alliance

No. Their position is that the constitutional situation of NI isn't the most important thing. Their voters would historically have come more from the unionist community, these days it's a more even split but with a relatively limited presence outside Greater Belfast.

[Torrain]

No. Their position is that the constitutional situation of NI isn't the most important thing. Their voters would historically have come more from the unionist community, these days it's a more even split but with a relatively limited presence outside Greater Belfast.

^Yeah. This expresses itself in different ways, but I can speak anecdotally. The members of my family who helped elect Stephen Farry spoke about their defection to Alliance in a fairly localist manner. Really, it was a bit like a vox pop in one of those seats the Lib Dems won in 2022 or 2023.

They were looking for someone who would focus on the local hospital (health issues in the family make this sort of thing their primary concern) and getting the bins taken out, along with a general frustration at constitutional politics overtaking everything else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More Hume-ist than Hume's old party in some respects.

[oldtimer]

It is really very odd that there are now not one but two incumbent Conservatives running as 'Independent Conservative - Pro S[REDACTED]t'?

Another odd thing is that the Conservatives still haven't found candidates in about 200 seats with 1 week to go, that's about 1/3rd and growing of all seats uncontested by them so far.

That would scramble the opinion polls and maybe tactical voting too, if so many are left empty.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its almost certainly not as many as 200 in reality, and few if any GB seats (the Speaker's excepted) won't have a Tory standing when nominations close a week from now.

[MABA 2020]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies