United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[MaxQue]

Wee bit of candidate news:

LBC’s Iain Dale has quit radio to run for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells. 15k majority in 2019, and held by the party since its 1974 creation.

And in Birmingham Northfield (one of Labour’s easiest target seats), the Labour candidate Alex Aiken is standing down over “personal challenges which have arisen recently”.

Dale is fascinating; was chief do staff to David Davis, and a firm Brexiteer but over the recent years has been more of a Tory Wet- for those who listen to his podcast it’s quite funny as he has been a strong critic of the government over immigration (he’s very pro) and various other issues.

The nature of his radio show means he can claim to have a relatively wide ranging interest in policy that isn’t exactly typical for a Tory; he did a lot on British airways poor treatment of staff during covid.

He would be an interesting MP; but I am surprised as it’s signing up for 5 years in opposition.

Didn't he also said that losing in 2005 (in N Norfolk) was the best thing that happened to him?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No Conservative MPs have announced they're standing down since the Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom double whammy on Friday evening. Surely that's not the last of them?

Neil Hudson has failed three different selections for the safest of seats and apparently balked at contesting Tim Farron’s seat (notionally Conservative on boundary changes, but they have no hope this time).

The remaining parachutes are shrinking in number, and the holes in them grow by the day. Either he’ll grab one of these or step back for 2024.

[kyc0705]

Wee bit of candidate news:

LBC’s Iain Dale has quit radio to run for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells. 15k majority in 2019, and held by the party since its 1974 creation.

And in Birmingham Northfield (one of Labour’s easiest target seats), the Labour candidate Alex Aiken is standing down over “personal challenges which have arisen recently”.

Dale is fascinating; was chief do staff to David Davis, and a firm Brexiteer but over the recent years has been more of a Tory Wet- for those who listen to his podcast it’s quite funny as he has been a strong critic of the government over immigration (he’s very pro) and various other issues.

The nature of his radio show means he can claim to have a relatively wide ranging interest in policy that isn’t exactly typical for a Tory; he did a lot on British airways poor treatment of staff during covid.

He would be an interesting MP; but I am surprised as it’s signing up for 5 years in opposition.

Didn't he also said that losing in 2005 (in N Norfolk) was the best thing that happened to him?

It seems quite sudden too, as his LBC podcast with Jacqui Smith had just expanded to a daily format to cover the election.

[Oryxslayer]

Wee bit of candidate news:

LBC’s Iain Dale has quit radio to run for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells. 15k majority in 2019, and held by the party since its 1974 creation.

And in Birmingham Northfield (one of Labour’s easiest target seats), the Labour candidate Alex Aiken is standing down over “personal challenges which have arisen recently”.

Dale is fascinating; was chief of staff to David Davis, and a firm Brexiteer but over the recent years has been more of a Tory Wet- for those who listen to his podcast it’s quite funny as he has been a strong critic of the government over immigration (he’s very pro) and various other issues.

The nature of his radio show means he can claim to have a relatively wide ranging interest in policy that isn’t exactly typical for a Tory; he did a lot on British airways poor treatment of staff during covid.

He would be an interesting MP; but I am surprised as it’s signing up for 5 years in opposition.

I guess the idea is that if he (or really anyone on the frontlines) can hold a seat that's very clearly being targeted for a flip then they will have proved that their personal appeal can stand out. Any such person will have a large amount of personal capital and not many remaining foes who could block them. This is all potentially enhanced in his case, since he is both a local resident and someone would would hypothetically enter with a decent initial following. (not something unique - there are quite a few certain prospective candidates from all parties who would be coming in with prominent profiles if elected)

[brucejoel99]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611

[Pericles]

Tunbridge Wells looks like a difficult seat to hold even if the polls weren't so dire. The LibDems made big gains there in 2019 as it's a well-educated, Remainer seat, so it's more 'Blue Wall' than most of the other seats being talked about.

[Oryxslayer]

Tunbridge Wells looks like a difficult seat to hold even if the polls weren't so dire. The LibDems made big gains there in 2019 as it's a well-educated, Remainer seat, so it's more 'Blue Wall' than most of the other seats being talked about.

It was also one of the few places the Lib-Dems outperformed their benchmarks in the Locals, winning a majority of the council. They have apparently been building up their infrastructure there for a while pre-locals, with an eye on the GE, which is why they outperformed. Make no mistake, it's the type of place I had expected the Lib-Dems to flip when things were laid out last week.


It'll be a decent test I guess of how candidates who are more removed or distinct from the bad party brand. That thing has never really been too much of a factor, in fact high profile people within the party (easy example being Raab) more often seem to lead to negative consolidation against them. But the Conservative Party's brand is so poor that we are going to see some Tories run more as individuals rather than Tories, and statistically there probably will be some success stories where this works.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Almost a week old but you really got to love the memes coming put this election.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1795702461115633730

YouGov poll for Sky News:
Labour: 47 (+3)
Tories: 20 (-2)
Lib Dems: 9 (-)
Reform UK: 12 (-2)
Greens: 7 (+1)
SNP: 3 (-)

Plugging that into Electoral Calculus makes Ed Davey leader of the Opposition. We’ll see if any upcoming MRPs “confirm” that or not.

[Estrella]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611

"PM declares he is a Thatcherite"

His only notable economic proposal is maintaining and expanding already disproportional welfare payments to unproductive population at cost paid by taxpayers. Some Thatcherism, that one.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"PM declares he is a Thatcherite"

His only notable economic proposal is maintaining and expanding already disproportional welfare payments to unproductive population at cost paid by taxpayers. Some Thatcherism, that one.

Given the most enduring legacy of Thatcherism was handing over state assets to private investors with the taxpayer eating the discount and handing over council homes to private buyers at significant discounts borne by local councils and ratepayers, I'd say it's rather fitting to her legacy of robbing peter to pay paul.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1795702461115633730
YouGov poll for Sky News:
Labour: 47 (+3)
Tories: 20 (-2)
Lib Dems: 9 (-)
Reform UK: 12 (-2)
Greens: 7 (+1)
SNP: 3 (-)

Plugging that into Electoral Calculus makes Ed Davey leader of the Opposition. We’ll see if any upcoming MRPs “confirm” that or not.

Interesting. Note the decline in the Reform vote % too

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1795702461115633730
YouGov poll for Sky News:
Labour: 47 (+3)
Tories: 20 (-2)
Lib Dems: 9 (-)
Reform UK: 12 (-2)
Greens: 7 (+1)
SNP: 3 (-)

Plugging that into Electoral Calculus makes Ed Davey leader of the Opposition. We’ll see if any upcoming MRPs “confirm” that or not.

The turnout question is one to watch. This has 56% as being 10/10 certain to vote. As a general rule the eventual turnout it quite a bit lower (around 10-15%) than the 10/10 percentage. Of course this percentage will likely rise during the campaign.

[MillennialModerate]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611

"PM declares he is a Thatcherite"

His only notable economic proposal is maintaining and expanding already disproportional welfare payments to unproductive population at cost paid by taxpayers. Some Thatcherism, that one.

I’m surprised Sunak is on board with this court the right strategy. He’s basically waiving the white flag and trying to limit the damage - which makes sense for the party but I’m wondering why he is, once he’s gone it’s not his problem anymore

[adma]

'Trend is your friend.'

Even if not a single person in the country changed their mind since the election announcement you're still going to get these sorts of variances up or down 2 points. JL is also a few days old; fieldwork ended Saturday. And on balance, the newer polls were polling over the Bank Holiday weekend which had there not been an election, would not have happened (most took a pause in the Bank Holiday earlier this month)

What's worth noting is the variance in party share; a 19% to 28% share for the Tories is effectively one that's worth a third of their potential vote share. Labour's variance of 40% to 47% is closer to 1 in 10.

Reform seem to be quite sticky; given the official starting block for the 2019 election was less traditional, Week 2 polls in 2019 started to see Brexit (starting at a similar position then as now) start to ebb. That's something to look out for in the next few days.

There are 3 reasons why I think Reform is sticky:

1. Since 2005, parties to the right of the Conservatives have gotten a larger share than Goldsmith's Referendum party in 1997, for many voters it won't be the first time to vote that way, UKIP was also sticky in 2015.

2. Reform rose by itself in the opinion polls, it has practically no leader and no organisation, it's a shell. Yet that empty shell still rose without any effort, meaning there's genuine demand.

3. The main issue about Brexit was Brexit, Boris ate that issue and it's votes in 2019. Reform now polling that high without Brexit means it's more complex than just 1 thing.

I'd also wonder about the "age cohort question"; that is, whether it's a parking lot for the UK equivalent of the kinds of young European (particularly male) voters who've been drawn to the "identitarian right", and for thom the Tories are just some stale old thing a la France's Les Républicains...

[CumbrianLefty]

we are going to see some Tories run more as individuals rather than Tories, and statistically there probably will be some success stories where this works.

Lots tried it in 1997 as well, only a few succeeded at all (and they were generally MPs who had some prior reputation for "independence" - those with an 11th hour reinvention almost universally failed)

[afleitch]

we are going to see some Tories run more as individuals rather than Tories, and statistically there probably will be some success stories where this works.

Lots tried it in 1997 as well, only a few succeeded at all (and they were generally MPs who had some prior reputation for "independence" - those with an 11th hour reinvention almost universally failed)

Yes. William Hague's vote held up in 1997 and MP's like Patrick McLoughlin in West Derbyshire for similar reasons.

[Alcibiades]

I'd also wonder about the "age cohort question"; that is, whether it's a parking lot for the UK equivalent of the kinds of young European (particularly male) voters who've been drawn to the "identitarian right", and for thom the Tories are just some stale old thing a la France's Les Républicains...

Those Redfield and Winton crosstabs are a real outlier compared to virtually every other poll, which has shown Reform as having a sharp positive age gradient — as you’d expect from a party by all accounts drawing most of its support from right-wing Tories. Considering R&W’s extensive history of dodgy crosstabs, I’m very much disinclined to believe them against all that other evidence which suggests Reform will poll negligibly with young voters.

[Torrain]

Per the Independent, Lucy Allan is in talks to stand for Reform in The Wrekin, which neighbours her Telford constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Per the Independent, Lucy Allan is in talks to stand for Reform in The Wrekin, which neighbours her Telford constituency.

I doubt that Mark Pritchard would be particularly happy about that.

[TheTide]

Per the Independent, Lucy Allan is in talks to stand for Reform in The Wrekin, which neighbours her Telford constituency.

I doubt that Mark Pritchard would be particularly happy about that.

Ed Miliband was visiting the constituency just yesterday (I think).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Per the Independent, Lucy Allan is in talks to stand for Reform in The Wrekin, which neighbours her Telford constituency.

I doubt that Mark Pritchard would be particularly happy about that.

Ed Miliband was visiting the constituency just yesterday (I think).

Yes, he popped along to see the candidate there after the main visit (with the local press etc) in Telford. Sort of thing you'd normally file as a little cheeky, but who knows these days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1795834420680687806

The optics don't strike me as brilliant here, what do others say?

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1795834420680687806

The optics don't strike me as brilliant here, what do others say?

Now that Gove’s gone, an opportunity to rebrand to a more working class image for Tory vice? 

[beesley]

https://www.facebook.com/Robfordelyn/posts/pfbid0yuhFVcxEvwC1fHV1SC1efhX9TqrKQiaMch3zinqzgaw6tYRYyoviLWzxfvjwVatUl

A defiant post from the disgraced Delyn MP Rob Roberts who is running in the similar but much expanded seat of Clwyd East. It's between him and Claudia Webbe for the worst performing incumbent trophy, methinks.