NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Brother Jonathan]

Other recent NH news:

Ted Gatsas, holding a D-trending Executive Council District including Manchester and its once deeply Republican suburbs, is retiring and the race to replace him is shaping up quickly. Bob Burns (nominee for NH-02 in 2022), NH GOP Vice Chair and former Board of Education Member Ryan Terrell (who created a stir by Tweeting an announcement on his official Party account), and Terese Grinnell (right-wing nut) are all currently running. 2010 GOP governor nominee and former NH HHS commissioner John Stephen and State Rep. Ross Berry are also possible candidates.

Ultimately this will be a harder seat for Republicans to hold, though I would not say it's impossible if they can get a good candidate. But that's a big if.

[Brother Jonathan]

Make of it what you will (he's one State Rep, albeit the Majority Floor leader) but seems like Joe Sweeney has endorsed (or is at least supporting) Chuck Morse pretty openly.

https://twitter.com/JoeSweeneyNH/status/1777746441085050967

Really not a surprise; both are from Salem and I'm pretty sure they have been close for quite a while.

More significant maybe is that a lot of his former Senate colleagues are backing him. At the very least Sharon Carson, the Senate Majority Leader, endorsed him at a press conference on his (pretty stupid makes Kelly Ayotte look normal on the border) "Fortifying the Granite State Defense Plan." A few other State Senators were present as well but they are listed as "attending in support of the plan," and only Sweeney and Carson have direct quotes in the press statement saying they support Morse.

On a general note, it's basically just living proof of how national and reflexive GOP politics are at this point given that Morse and Ayotte are getting into a fight about immigration, as though either of them will be able to deal with that as Governor in any meaningful way. Morse has an "Amnesty Ayotte" website now and is (again, as expected) tacking to her right. I mean the whole thing is nonsense, this is not an issue that will win the general, but Morse knows he needs some hook, and Ayotte cannot afford to just ignore it. It does seem Morse being so negative is creating some friction, but among voters who knows. He's at least remaining relevant and is shaping Ayotte's campaign, and it does mean it may be somewhat closer than it looked at first.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1803096507681316932

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1803096507681316932

I don't see why this would be a big deal? Lots of people from New Hampshire probably support the Celtics, they're the only NBA team from New England.

[KaiserDave]

Most New Hampshire (and Vermont for that matter) basketball fans are Celtic fans - this is a non-issue.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Yeah, I don't think the Celtics tweet is weird at all - just like how conservatives will support the professional sports teams of the nearest major city, all the while hating the city itself.

That said, Kelly's campaign being focused on fearmongering about Massachusetts is downright hysterical. "We're one election away from turning into the state with the best education, healthcare, and highest standard of living in America!" Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

[NHI]

Yeah, I don't think the Celtics tweet is weird at all - just like how conservatives will support the professional sports teams of the nearest major city, all the while hating the city itself.

That said, Kelly's campaign being focused on fearmongering about Massachusetts is downright hysterical. "We're one election away from turning into the state with the best education, healthcare, and highest standard of living in America!" Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

She is a joke.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, I don't think the Celtics tweet is weird at all - just like how conservatives will support the professional sports teams of the nearest major city, all the while hating the city itself.

That said, Kelly's campaign being focused on fearmongering about Massachusetts is downright hysterical. "We're one election away from turning into the state with the best education, healthcare, and highest standard of living in America!" Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

LMAOOO.

Given the clown car that's emerged in the GOP primary - or at least, how hard right the candidates are pivoting - I'm calling this Likely D, ngl.

I think NH Democrats are tiring of GOP government in the state anyway and crossover support has shrunk even for someone like Sununu - in 2022 NH voters cut his 2020 margin in half (32 points to less than 16 points).

The GOP nominating someone who keeps harping about the ing border (US-Mexico or NH-MA) is probably not gonna help them win any Democrats, either, and they kinda need to do that if they want to win statewide.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

That said, Kelly's campaign being focused on fearmongering about Massachusetts is downright hysterical. "We're one election away from turning into the state with the best education, healthcare, and highest standard of living in America!" Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

This is ultimately why I think this is a Likely D race. Craig has plenty of weaknesses but Ayotte's entire campaign is "dems = massachusetts XD".

The entire NHDP playbook against Sununu was single-issue anti-Trumpism. For four years, the entire Democratic strategy was to play a ten-second "Trump guy through and through" soundbite. Over and over and over again. Even in the pandemic. No talk about education or voting rights or abortion. Entirely about Sununu backing Trump. This failed 5 years ago and will fail now. 

It resulted in the worst campaign I have ever seen a state party run in 2020. This resulted in the Democratic gubernatorial nominee losing his own state senate district (the third-bluest in the state), and the GOP gaining a trifecta. While Democrats soyjakked over Biden winning the state by 8, they gave the Republicans the ability to gerrymander the state to their will.

Thankfully the party has woken up and started emphasizing Dobbs - an actual winning issue that voters care about.

Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

LMAOOO.

To be fair to freethinkingindy this isn't entirely off base. Carpetbagging here has less of an effect the closer to the border you went. The border towns were actually stronger for people like Brown and Sullivan.

Of course, most of these people who care about "not Massing up NH" are also Republicans.

[Dan the Roman]

Yeah, I don't think the Celtics tweet is weird at all - just like how conservatives will support the professional sports teams of the nearest major city, all the while hating the city itself.

That said, Kelly's campaign being focused on fearmongering about Massachusetts is downright hysterical. "We're one election away from turning into the state with the best education, healthcare, and highest standard of living in America!" Also, she's from a suburban part of Nashua like a mile north of the Massachusetts border - that's barely the REAL New Hampshire anyways.

LMAOOO.

Given the clown car that's emerged in the GOP primary - or at least, how hard right the candidates are pivoting - I'm calling this Likely D, ngl.

I think NH Democrats are tiring of GOP government in the state anyway and crossover support has shrunk even for someone like Sununu - in 2022 NH voters cut his 2020 margin in half (32 points to less than 16 points).

The GOP nominating someone who keeps harping about the ing border (US-Mexico or NH-MA) is probably not gonna help them win any Democrats, either, and they kinda need to do that if they want to win statewide.

I feel it's underestimated how existential the income tax issue is for NH small businesses. Large segments of the economy have been built around time and "not being Massachusetts " is still a highly potent among Massachusetts transplants.

I say that as one of them and from a family of them.

The people who left MA in the 1990s, 2000s, even early 2010s don't believe their Massachusetts exists. Hence it is more of a code word for Massachusetts becoming California.

Not saying that has broader appeal. But small town/lakes region + MA border is a viable GOP coalition at the state level. And Dobbs messaging at the state level requiring convincing swing voters that the GOP is more likely to ban abortion locally than Democrats are to try to mess with the tax or education systems. And I can say that with two Biden voting parents, they aren't convinced of that.

Maybe Lean D, but likely strikes me as delusional.