6/18 Congressional Primaries Discussion: VA, OK, GA

[Green Line]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

I doubt even Boebert will be in trouble in the GE anytime this decade. Trump+18 is a pretty huge margin and while it is indeed trending leftward pretty fast, it's no GA-06 or TX-07 (in their 2010s iterations, that is).

Even if she never actually loses, underperforming by enough to need the NRCC to bail her out is not a good look. Think Steve King in 2018.

The Boebert obsession needs to stop.