Who is going to win the debate?

[Woody]

who do you think?

[heatcharger]

Biden should get at least 80% in post-debate Atlas polling.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden. Expectations are low for him, the stakes are high, and he has an opportunity to actually counter and to on the offensive at Trump.

Trump has no upsides outside of the fact that he won't lose support over a bad performance. He is historically a crap debater, and it will remain that way.

If it does work to Biden's favor, the question then becomes how much it translates to polls, if at all, and for how long.

[Ljube]

Tough question.

Last time Trump lost because he tried too hard to prove that Biden was cognitively impaired. And he failed.

This time, Biden might try too hard to provoke Trump. And that may fail. If it fails, if Trump keeps his calm, he will emerge victorious.

[JGibson]

Biden will win easily.

[Still Nervous]

I'm going to lose because I'm taking a tolerance break from weed so I'm going to have to watch it sober.

[SnowLabrador]

Clearly Biden. The more important question is: Will it matter at all?

[Redban]

Neither ... with rare exceptions (e.g. first 2012 debate, the 1984 "Reagan KO's Mondale" incident), debates don't leave a clear winner. The Biden stooges will claim Biden won; the Trumpers will claim Trump won. And then we just go on

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Putin wins, by getting a convicted felon sympathetic to his abusive kleptocracy on stage as the nominee and standard-bearer for a major US political party.

[PeteB]

Absent a "senior moment", Biden should easily win.  The better question is whether the debate moves the needle. 

If Biden can nail the "convicted" to Trump, he wins big.  If Biden is off his game and Trump can appear calm and focused and point out real issues and not conspiracy stuff, he may win.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

I fear Biden falling on his face, but if the SOTU is any sign, he should still be able to show up and perform.

I just don't see how trump is going to show up and be able to have coherent answers to the questions with the way he rambles these days. If he wins, it's probably because he fails less than Biden. I just don't see how he comes out looking objectively good on his own.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Is it any wonder I expect Joe Biden to win the debate?

https://twitter.com/Eddies_X/status/1805222308723798117

[Senator Incitatus]

A few counter-vailing factors:
(1) The unpopular incumbent usually gets bodied in the first debate BUT they’re usually facing a fresh challenger.
(2) Expectations for Biden should be rock-bottom BUT have been pumped by Republican talking points for the past few weeks.
(3) Debate polling, for whatever it’s worth, seems to have systematically underestimated Trump.

Ultimately, all that matters is one-liners (for good or bad). I would expect those to favor Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden due to the expectations game and that Trump is actually far more rambling and incoherent than he is now. Does anyone expect any notable policy proposals or criticisms from Trump, or just him raving some more about 2020 being stolen and trumped up charges against him, etc.?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It depends completely on how Trump performs since almost everyone watching it will be tuning in for him specifically. If he doesn't interrupt like the first debate from 2020, and is much more focused on the issues than that should be enough. If he repeats the mistakes from September 2020, then Biden comes out on top.

[wbrocks67]

Neither ... with rare exceptions (e.g. first 2012 debate, the 1984 "Reagan KO's Mondale" incident), debates don't leave a clear winner. The Biden stooges will claim Biden won; the Trumpers will claim Trump won. And then we just go on

This is once again a lie. By all data and evidence, Biden won the first 2020 debate very easily.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I hope the White House pharmacy is stocked on adderall (I say this with no shame) but I don't think I can watch until after.

[MABA 2020]

I don't know, Biden is the one who needs to win more

[President Johnson]

I'd say Biden since expectations are so low and he has a favorable setting.

However, everyone will probably just say their preferred candidate has won.

[oldtimer]

Since I expect Trump to lose to Jake Tapper, Biden's would be the winner.

[Badger]

Expectations are quite low for trump, and he will still fail to meet them. While Trump will once again prove the adage that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and lose none of his voters over it, at least some swing voters will see that Biden is nowhere near the cognitively impaired drooling Alzheimer's patient portrayed in the right wing media and blogosphere. Helping to disprove that myth I think is the one thing that will move the needle at least a tiny bit

[Alben Barkley]

Biden has to either knock it out of the park and put to rest concerns that he’s too old, or have a total meltdown and prove he is indeed too old which might be the only thing that could get him replaced at the convention before it’s too late. Anything in between is a loss as it won’t move the needle and he’s down.

[heatcharger]

Biden has to either knock it out of the park and put to rest concerns that he’s too old, or have a total meltdown and prove he is indeed too old which might be the only thing that could get him replaced at the convention before it’s too late. Anything in between is a loss as it won’t move the needle and he’s down.

Yup, looks like expectations are sky high for Biden. Democrats expect him to kill it tomorrow.

[oldtimer]

Biden has to either knock it out of the park and put to rest concerns that he’s too old, or have a total meltdown and prove he is indeed too old which might be the only thing that could get him replaced at the convention before it’s too late. Anything in between is a loss as it won’t move the needle and he’s down.

Yup, looks like expectations are sky high for Biden. Democrats expect him to kill it tomorrow.

My expectation is that Tapper is going to roll over Trump while Biden will simply try to smile silently in the corner.

[heatcharger]

Biden has to either knock it out of the park and put to rest concerns that he’s too old, or have a total meltdown and prove he is indeed too old which might be the only thing that could get him replaced at the convention before it’s too late. Anything in between is a loss as it won’t move the needle and he’s down.

Yup, looks like expectations are sky high for Biden. Democrats expect him to kill it tomorrow.

My expectation is that Tapper is going to roll over Trump while Biden will simply try to smile silently in the corner.

Tomorrow is obviously a big day for Fake Tapper.