Do you think ticket-splitting will happen because of 2019 nostalgia?

[TheMattMan]

I'm curious whether voters want Trump the president without giving him full reign over Congress? Polls are showing again and again that voters are nostalgic for Trump's presidency, but voters don't talk about 2017-18 when Republicans had a trifecta - they talk about 2019 and early 2020, when Democrats controlled the House. People overwhelmingly don't want a national abortion ban or an Obamacare repeal, which will happen under a new trifecta. House Democrats since 2019 have demonstratively proven again and again they can pass bipartisan legislation in strict contrast to the turmoil of House Reps. Most House Dems in swing districts have also repeatedly come out swinging against the AOC's and the Tlaibs of the world.

I'm not talking about the high turnout partisan voters here who will never ticket split. I'm thinking more about the normie low-info voter who may like their own congressman and senator.

What do y'all think?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well I think democrats are more likely to win the house than the presidency to begin with but definitely not the senate .

Currently challengers in senate race have low name recognition so incumbents have pretty big advantages at this stage of the race which will disappear by the final week .

[Steve from Lambeth]

...voters don't talk about 2017-18 when Republicans had a trifecta - they talk about 2019 and early 2020, when Democrats controlled the House.

2019 was arguably the most revolutionary year since 1975.

We had the School Strike for Climate and major protests in Hong Kong, Chile, and Lebanon. The West sponsored a coup in Bolivia and pulled the rug under Maduro in Venezuela.

All issues female - women's football, women's access to Indian holy sites, femicide, and not to mention the smash-hit book Invisible Women - were in the headlines. Iran bore under huge pressure to allow women to attend football matches, to the point where UEFA urged its members not to play matches against Iranian teams. The BBC went on the warpath against pick-up artists and got scores of their videos taken off YouTube. Theresa May spoke to the plight of Western women. We nearly had an all-female spacewalk in April, then we got one in November.

Letwin and Cooper delayed Brexit again and again and again, and spawned Farage and BoJo, and Change UK. Bury FC went under, and Bolton Wanderers almost did; some people said the government should create an Independent Regulator to prevent similar travesties. Notre Dame burned down and a church in Colombo got shot up, combining to produce the most disastrous Holy Week in living memory.

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag, but racist abuse in English football was a huge issue, with the BBC covering every incident, no matter how small. When England thrashed Bulgaria to make EURO 2020, the BBC's headline focused on how the game was marred by racial abuse of black English players.

ISIS was defeated. BTS broke up because they had to do military service in the Republic of Korea, and everybody cried. The Mueller Report fuelled calls for Donald Trump's impeachment, at a time when he was merely hated rather than despised.

There were two Booker Prize winners for the first and still the last time, although some say it was a stitch-up to embellish Margaret Atwood's already hefty CV. People, especially scientists, started thinking that vaping caused popcorn lung. There was a huge heatwave in Europe, outstripping even 2003 and 2006.

Illegal immigration to the UK via lorry was at its peak, with one estimate suggesting that every UK port was letting them in unwittingly - but when 39 Vietnamese migrants died in a lorry in Essex that winter, this route fell out of fashion in favour of small boat crossings, today Rishi Sunak's daemon.

And that's ignoring the other thing that we ended up realising made 2019 special. No wonder people remember it so fondly. If Bill Bryson was living a century from now instead of today, he'd write a book about it.

Do I see anything that happened in 2019 as a driving factor behind people's voting choices in 2024? No. Not unless you're talking about "the state of the economy" as a general, abstract thing, which nobody remembered about 2019 at the time but which is today seen by many people as the America's last good economic year. This will drive up Republican turnout more than anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, because Brown and Tester and Osborn are strong Patriots and it's an illusion that they will lose because Trump wins those states. 

[EastwoodS]

...voters don't talk about 2017-18 when Republicans had a trifecta - they talk about 2019 and early 2020, when Democrats controlled the House.

2019 was arguably the most revolutionary year since 1975.

We had the School Strike for Climate and major protests in Hong Kong, Chile, and Lebanon. The West sponsored a coup in Bolivia and pulled the rug under Maduro in Venezuela.

All issues female - women's football, women's access to Indian holy sites, femicide, and not to mention the smash-hit book Invisible Women - were in the headlines. Iran bore under huge pressure to allow women to attend football matches, to the point where UEFA urged its members not to play matches against Iranian teams. The BBC went on the warpath against pick-up artists and got scores of their videos taken off YouTube. Theresa May spoke to the plight of Western women. We nearly had an all-female spacewalk in April, then we got one in November.

Letwin and Cooper delayed Brexit again and again and again, and spawned Farage and BoJo, and Change UK. Bury FC went under, and Bolton Wanderers almost did; some people said the government should create an Independent Regulator to prevent similar travesties. Notre Dame burned down and a church in Colombo got shot up, combining to produce the most disastrous Holy Week in living memory.

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag, but racist abuse in English football was a huge issue, with the BBC covering every incident, no matter how small. When England thrashed Bulgaria to make EURO 2020, the BBC's headline focused on how the game was marred by racial abuse of black English players.

ISIS was defeated. BTS broke up because they had to do military service in the Republic of Korea, and everybody cried. The Mueller Report fuelled calls for Donald Trump's impeachment, at a time when he was merely hated rather than despised.

There were two Booker Prize winners for the first and still the last time, although some say it was a stitch-up to embellish Margaret Atwood's already hefty CV. People, especially scientists, started thinking that vaping caused popcorn lung. There was a huge heatwave in Europe, outstripping even 2003 and 2006.

Illegal immigration to the UK via lorry was at its peak, with one estimate suggesting that every UK port was letting them in unwittingly - but when 39 Vietnamese migrants died in a lorry in Essex that winter, this route fell out of fashion in favour of small boat crossings, today Rishi Sunak's daemon.

And that's ignoring the other thing that we ended up realising made 2019 special. No wonder people remember it so fondly. If Bill Bryson was living a century from now instead of today, he'd write a book about it.

Do I see anything that happened in 2019 as a driving factor behind people's voting choices in 2024? No. Not unless you're talking about "the state of the economy" as a general, abstract thing, which nobody remembered about 2019 at the time but which is today seen by many people as the America's last good economic year. This will drive up Republican turnout more than anything.

The 2000s through the 2020s are basically just a repeat of the 1950s through the 1970s, but in their own, unique way. The 2010s and 20s social justice movements and unrest comes closest to that of the late 60s.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think Americans think enough about, or were even aware enough, let alone remember which parties were in power, and where, in 2019 for this to be a factor.

[darklordoftech]

...voters don't talk about 2017-18 when Republicans had a trifecta - they talk about 2019 and early 2020, when Democrats controlled the House.

2019 was arguably the most revolutionary year since 1975.

We had the School Strike for Climate and major protests in Hong Kong, Chile, and Lebanon. The West sponsored a coup in Bolivia and pulled the rug under Maduro in Venezuela.

All issues female - women's football, women's access to Indian holy sites, femicide, and not to mention the smash-hit book Invisible Women - were in the headlines. Iran bore under huge pressure to allow women to attend football matches, to the point where UEFA urged its members not to play matches against Iranian teams. The BBC went on the warpath against pick-up artists and got scores of their videos taken off YouTube. Theresa May spoke to the plight of Western women. We nearly had an all-female spacewalk in April, then we got one in November.

Letwin and Cooper delayed Brexit again and again and again, and spawned Farage and BoJo, and Change UK. Bury FC went under, and Bolton Wanderers almost did; some people said the government should create an Independent Regulator to prevent similar travesties. Notre Dame burned down and a church in Colombo got shot up, combining to produce the most disastrous Holy Week in living memory.

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag, but racist abuse in English football was a huge issue, with the BBC covering every incident, no matter how small. When England thrashed Bulgaria to make EURO 2020, the BBC's headline focused on how the game was marred by racial abuse of black English players.

ISIS was defeated. BTS broke up because they had to do military service in the Republic of Korea, and everybody cried. The Mueller Report fuelled calls for Donald Trump's impeachment, at a time when he was merely hated rather than despised.

There were two Booker Prize winners for the first and still the last time, although some say it was a stitch-up to embellish Margaret Atwood's already hefty CV. People, especially scientists, started thinking that vaping caused popcorn lung. There was a huge heatwave in Europe, outstripping even 2003 and 2006.

Illegal immigration to the UK via lorry was at its peak, with one estimate suggesting that every UK port was letting them in unwittingly - but when 39 Vietnamese migrants died in a lorry in Essex that winter, this route fell out of fashion in favour of small boat crossings, today Rishi Sunak's daemon.

And that's ignoring the other thing that we ended up realising made 2019 special. No wonder people remember it so fondly. If Bill Bryson was living a century from now instead of today, he'd write a book about it.

Do I see anything that happened in 2019 as a driving factor behind people's voting choices in 2024? No. Not unless you're talking about "the state of the economy" as a general, abstract thing, which nobody remembered about 2019 at the time but which is today seen by many people as the America's last good economic year. This will drive up Republican turnout more than anything.

The 2000s through the 2020s are basically just a repeat of the 1950s through the 1970s, but in their own, unique way. The 2010s and 20s social justice movements and unrest comes closest to that of the late 60s.

This makes me worry that the 2030s will be a repeat of the 1980s and that we'll have to wait until the 2060s for any movement to the left.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

...voters don't talk about 2017-18 when Republicans had a trifecta - they talk about 2019 and early 2020, when Democrats controlled the House.

2019 was arguably the most revolutionary year since 1975.

We had the School Strike for Climate and major protests in Hong Kong, Chile, and Lebanon. The West sponsored a coup in Bolivia and pulled the rug under Maduro in Venezuela.

All issues female - women's football, women's access to Indian holy sites, femicide, and not to mention the smash-hit book Invisible Women - were in the headlines. Iran bore under huge pressure to allow women to attend football matches, to the point where UEFA urged its members not to play matches against Iranian teams. The BBC went on the warpath against pick-up artists and got scores of their videos taken off YouTube. Theresa May spoke to the plight of Western women. We nearly had an all-female spacewalk in April, then we got one in November.

Letwin and Cooper delayed Brexit again and again and again, and spawned Farage and BoJo, and Change UK. Bury FC went under, and Bolton Wanderers almost did; some people said the government should create an Independent Regulator to prevent similar travesties. Notre Dame burned down and a church in Colombo got shot up, combining to produce the most disastrous Holy Week in living memory.

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag, but racist abuse in English football was a huge issue, with the BBC covering every incident, no matter how small. When England thrashed Bulgaria to make EURO 2020, the BBC's headline focused on how the game was marred by racial abuse of black English players.

ISIS was defeated. BTS broke up because they had to do military service in the Republic of Korea, and everybody cried. The Mueller Report fuelled calls for Donald Trump's impeachment, at a time when he was merely hated rather than despised.

There were two Booker Prize winners for the first and still the last time, although some say it was a stitch-up to embellish Margaret Atwood's already hefty CV. People, especially scientists, started thinking that vaping caused popcorn lung. There was a huge heatwave in Europe, outstripping even 2003 and 2006.

Illegal immigration to the UK via lorry was at its peak, with one estimate suggesting that every UK port was letting them in unwittingly - but when 39 Vietnamese migrants died in a lorry in Essex that winter, this route fell out of fashion in favour of small boat crossings, today Rishi Sunak's daemon.

And that's ignoring the other thing that we ended up realising made 2019 special. No wonder people remember it so fondly. If Bill Bryson was living a century from now instead of today, he'd write a book about it.

Do I see anything that happened in 2019 as a driving factor behind people's voting choices in 2024? No. Not unless you're talking about "the state of the economy" as a general, abstract thing, which nobody remembered about 2019 at the time but which is today seen by many people as the America's last good economic year. This will drive up Republican turnout more than anything.

The 2000s through the 2020s are basically just a repeat of the 1950s through the 1970s, but in their own, unique way. The 2010s and 20s social justice movements and unrest comes closest to that of the late 60s.

1950s to 1970s were a huge expansion of civil rights and liberties in the US.

These days it feels like our liberties are under attack more and more each day, by our own government and corporations, under the guise of national security. Only a few small victories such as gay marriage or drug legalization have been achieved.

I guess economically one could consider the 2 periods to be similar ups and downs though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC, MT, NEB and OH are subject to split ticket because incumbents are fairly popular and Biden is unpopular in those states but the reverse is happening in NC Robinson is outperform Trump because of a two term D administration

[cherry mandarin]

Sure incumbency will do its thing, but by and large people have no special reason to split their tickets this year compared to past years.

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag

What? Everyone knew what it was by 2015.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Black Lives Matter was still a niche social media hashtag

What? Everyone knew what it was by 2015.

In 2019, BLM was something people had to be actively reminded of. In 2020, BLM was the news story for a time and the effects of the most recent wave are still being debated today (and will likely be felt for centuries).

[DaleCooper]

2019 "nostalgia" is nonsense and crap that only a CNN pundit (or perhaps Nate Silver) could fall for. I am doing a little bit of a 180 on ticket-splitting, in that I think we will see a lot more ticket-splitting than we've seen in close to a decade, but I still don't think it'll be as big as the polls say.

The real issue here is that Republicans (not Trump, because there is a difference) are just intolerable and pathetic. I used to ignore the distinction between your average Trump bootlicker Republican candidate and Trump himself. How could anybody vote for Trump but not feel comfortable voting for his people? Holy sh-t, I think I get it now. Trump is basically a big fat strongman who is promising to put money in your pocket, shake things up in Washington, and maybe destroy the whole country along the way. Republicans are promising to destroy the country and turn your life into a miserable nightmare, infested with government and corporate interference. More money for corporations, less money for you. You want to read a book? Do you want your kids to read a book? Better get DeSantis's permission first. Don't want your kids to get shot to death in school? Too bad, they're gonna! If you want to access certain websites, you better upload a picture of your social security card to the internet (and yes, I know Democrats are involved in this too, but Republicans seem to be all-in on it while some Democrats are opposing it). Oh, and while we're at it, Republicans in South Dakota are going to say a bunch of horrible things about American Indians, as if they haven't gotten enough sh-t from the government over the years. Basically, if you're not a complete sack of sh-t, then the GOP is currently doing everything in its power to alienate you in a way that Trump simply isn't. This isn't even a defense of Trump so much as it is just a rant about how dreadful Republicans are, and the things I mentioned are just the things that have been annoying me over the past day or two. You could fill a book with everything awful about the generic Republican candidate in 2024. I honestly can't even say with any certainty that Trump's second presidency would be much worse than a generic Republican.