Biden takes the lead on the 538 poll average for first time this cycle

[wbrocks67]

Nothing special, it's only by 0.2%. And could easily revert back with another poll, but interesting nonetheless given Trump has held the lead as far back as the average goes.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[axiomsofdominion]

Just posted this in the main thread. Hot Biden Summer.

[Person Man]

And Dems are ahead downballot, too. And the PV winner probably win the House.

[jred]

In addition, WI/MI show Biden leads of 0.5 now and Trump's lead in PA has been cut to 0.2

[The Mikado]

The question becomes can RCP hold onto the Rasmussen poll until another Harvard-Harris or Rasmussen poll comes out to bail them out, because as is the second they drop the poll RCP goes to tied and from tied only a slight breeze is needed for Biden to take the lead there.

[wbrocks67]

The question becomes can RCP hold onto the Rasmussen poll until another Harvard-Harris or Rasmussen poll comes out to bail them out, because as is the second they drop the poll RCP goes to tied and from tied only a slight breeze is needed for Biden to take the lead there.

I feel like we're due for another Harris poll at the speed that they churn them out, so I assume one is likely coming lol

[axiomsofdominion]

The question becomes can RCP hold onto the Rasmussen poll until another Harvard-Harris or Rasmussen poll comes out to bail them out, because as is the second they drop the poll RCP goes to tied and from tied only a slight breeze is needed for Biden to take the lead there.

Forbes and TIPP only end 1 day after Rass as well. That's a solid bonus to the swing.

The question is whether any other pro-Biden poll drops today or tomorrow. Otherwise they might be able to save it.

[Eraserhead]

The question becomes can RCP hold onto the Rasmussen poll until another Harvard-Harris or Rasmussen poll comes out to bail them out, because as is the second they drop the poll RCP goes to tied and from tied only a slight breeze is needed for Biden to take the lead there.

He'll need a an undeniable lead to take it there. They will always find a way to cook the books if it's close.

[Ljube]

Biden also had a larger than normal advantage in this period in 2020, and Hillary had a larger than normal advantage in this period in 2016.

Could this be more than just a coincidence?

[Alben Barkley]

Biden was ahead by 10 points in the average around this time in 2020, and over 8 points by the end. He ended up winning by less than half that and still won the decisive states by less than Trump did in 2016, despite polls showing him comfortably ahead in all of them too, especially Wisconsin which once again had a massive polling error.

If Biden is “ahead” 0.2 now in hack G. Elliott Morris’s average (and he’s actually doing worse in his forecast, which now has them tied which would be a Trump win in the House), he’s down bigly. Even if he actually won the popular vote by 0.2, he’s getting wiped out in the electoral college. There is no world in which he can rely on Wisconsin or the sun belt states to pull through this time if he’s winning by that little, and he has to win at least one. To say nothing of his problems in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where just slightly decreased minority turnout (they don’t have to actually vote for Trump!) as there’s a lot of evidence will happen will seal the deal, to say nothing of the probability that the WWC will just lurch further right.

Celebrating this is actually sad, and just a sign of how FUBAR Biden truly is.

People called me a bloomer in 2020, and now some call me a doomer. Reality is I’ve never been wither. I just call it as I see it based on the best evidence available to me at the time, without letting  my preferences or feelings get in the way. Wbrocks is what a true bloomer looks like.

[King Man]

Biden was ahead by 10 points in the average around this time in 2020, and over 8 points by the end. He ended up winning by less than half that and still won the decisive states by less than Trump did in 2016, despite polls showing him comfortably ahead in all of them too, especially Wisconsin which once again had a massive polling error.

If Biden is “ahead” 0.2 now in hack G. Elliott Morris’s average (and he’s actually doing worse in his forecast, which now has them tied which would be a Trump win in the House), he’s down bigly. Even if he actually won the popular vote by 0.2, he’s getting wiped out in the electoral college. There is no world in which he can rely on Wisconsin or the sun belt states to pull through this time if he’s winning by that little, and he has to win at least one. To say nothing of his problems in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where just slightly decreased minority turnout (they don’t have to actually vote for Trump!) as there’s a lot of evidence will happen will seal the deal, to say nothing of the probability that the WWC will just lurch further right.

Celebrating this is actually sad, and just a sign of how FUBAR Biden truly is.

People called me a bloomer in 2020, and now some call me a doomer. Reality is I’ve never been wither. I just call it as I see it based on the best evidence available to me at the time, without letting  my preferences or feelings get in the way. Wbrocks is what a true bloomer looks like.

Those gains are comming from BLUE states and RED states and Florida(perhaps TEXAS)
not the purple states

[axiomsofdominion]

Biden is at the highest approval in the 538 average since April, just cracking 39% today.

With the upcoming debate and then Trump's sentencing I can't imagine that's gonna stop anytime soon. Depends on what happens with Hezbollah maybe.

[Rand]

I climaxed reading that title.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden was ahead by 10 points in the average around this time in 2020, and over 8 points by the end. He ended up winning by less than half that and still won the decisive states by less than Trump did in 2016, despite polls showing him comfortably ahead in all of them too, especially Wisconsin which once again had a massive polling error.

If Biden is “ahead” 0.2 now in hack G. Elliott Morris’s average (and he’s actually doing worse in his forecast, which now has them tied which would be a Trump win in the House), he’s down bigly. Even if he actually won the popular vote by 0.2, he’s getting wiped out in the electoral college. There is no world in which he can rely on Wisconsin or the sun belt states to pull through this time if he’s winning by that little, and he has to win at least one. To say nothing of his problems in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where just slightly decreased minority turnout (they don’t have to actually vote for Trump!) as there’s a lot of evidence will happen will seal the deal, to say nothing of the probability that the WWC will just lurch further right.

Celebrating this is actually sad, and just a sign of how FUBAR Biden truly is.

People called me a bloomer in 2020, and now some call me a doomer. Reality is I’ve never been wither. I just call it as I see it based on the best evidence available to me at the time, without letting  my preferences or feelings get in the way. Wbrocks is what a true bloomer looks like.

Those gains are comming from BLUE states and RED states and Florida(perhaps TEXAS)
not the purple states

Based on what? 2022? If people think the phenomenon of Florida and New York lurching right while Pennsylvania and Michigan shift left can be relied on to repeat again in a presidential year, they have another thing coming. Reminder that Gary Peters easily won Michigan by double digits in the red wave year of 2014; two years later, Trump won it. 2022 was a perfect storm thanks to catastrophically bad GOP candidates and strong Democratic candidates in races like MI-GOV, PA-GOV and SEN, and AZ-GOV and SEN. (Meanwhile DeSantis was popular and Zeldin was a solid candidate for NY which had its own issues with the Democratic candidates.) You might say Trump is also catastrophically bad but he’a a known quantity by this point who already won all these states at least once and seems to truly be “Teflon Don” as even felony convictions and court findings of sexual abuse can’t stop him. And Biden himself is not a strong candidate at all anymore, in fact one of the most unpopular incumbents to ever seek re-election.

The primary reason for Democratic overperformance in those races in 2022 was Dobbs. That is blatantly obvious when you look at polls and special election results before and after Dobbs. Focusing on almost anything else besides Dobbs, the only proven magic bullet the Dems have in their arsenal, seems like utter madness to me. If Biden wants a prayer of repeating Democratic success from 2022 in these states, that’s what he needs to do. Tudor Dixon was seen as an anti-choice extremist. Everyone in America should see Trump the same way by election day, or else Biden’s campaign has failed.

[DrScholl]

Biden was ahead by 10 points in the average around this time in 2020, and over 8 points by the end. He ended up winning by less than half that and still won the decisive states by less than Trump did in 2016, despite polls showing him comfortably ahead in all of them too, especially Wisconsin which once again had a massive polling error.

If Biden is “ahead” 0.2 now in hack G. Elliott Morris’s average (and he’s actually doing worse in his forecast, which now has them tied which would be a Trump win in the House), he’s down bigly. Even if he actually won the popular vote by 0.2, he’s getting wiped out in the electoral college. There is no world in which he can rely on Wisconsin or the sun belt states to pull through this time if he’s winning by that little, and he has to win at least one. To say nothing of his problems in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where just slightly decreased minority turnout (they don’t have to actually vote for Trump!) as there’s a lot of evidence will happen will seal the deal, to say nothing of the probability that the WWC will just lurch further right.

Celebrating this is actually sad, and just a sign of how FUBAR Biden truly is.

People called me a bloomer in 2020, and now some call me a doomer. Reality is I’ve never been wither. I just call it as I see it based on the best evidence available to me at the time, without letting  my preferences or feelings get in the way. Wbrocks is what a true bloomer looks like.

Trump supporter math and logic is amazing. The averages are far more full of crappy polling than they ever were in 2020. Biden could be up 10 in the average and you'd say the same nonsense. No matter how you spin it losing a lead in a heavily biased average is not good for Trump.

[heatcharger]

Alben Barkley was posting 413 nut maps when Biden was up 10.

[Alben Barkley]

Alben Barkley was posting 413 nut maps when Biden was up 10.

Yup because back then it seemed plausible. Biden was at that time within a normal polling error or less away of actually winning the 413 nut map. He literally led multiple polls in states like Texas and Iowa. And we only had one example at that time (2016) of Trump overperforming polls significantly. It seemed plausible that it was just a fluke and that indeed it was just as likely the polls might underestimate Biden rather than overestimate him, given that there was historically no clear rhyme or reason to who the polls would underestimate. Back then it was the Trump fans who were the poll deniers and I was ridiculing.

None of this is true anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alben Barkley was posting 413 nut maps when Biden was up 10.

Yup because back then it seemed plausible. Biden was at that time within a normal polling error or less away of actually winning the 413 nut map. He literally led multiple polls in states like Texas and Iowa. And we only had one example at that time (2016) of Trump overperforming polls significantly. It seemed plausible that it was just a fluke and that indeed it was just as likely the polls might underestimate Biden rather than overestimate him, given that there was historically no clear rhyme or reason to who the polls would underestimate. Back then it was the Trump fans who were the poll deniers and I was ridiculing.

None of this is true anymore.

Your R nut map was wrong in 22

[emailking]

Trump isn't up 10 though. He's up -0.2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alben Barkley was posting 413 nut maps when Biden was up 10.

Yup because back then it seemed plausible. Biden was at that time within a normal polling error or less away of actually winning the 413 nut map. He literally led multiple polls in states like Texas and Iowa. And we only had one example at that time (2016) of Trump overperforming polls significantly. It seemed plausible that it was just a fluke and that indeed it was just as likely the polls might underestimate Biden rather than overestimate him, given that there was historically no clear rhyme or reason to who the polls would underestimate. Back then it was the Trump fans who were the poll deniers and I was ridiculing.

None of this is true anymore.

Your R nut map was wrong in 22

Lol, lol Fetterman losing plse, users thinks he will lose in 28, Fetterman is the most underrated D out there

[heatcharger]

Alben Barkley was posting 413 nut maps when Biden was up 10.

Yup because back then it seemed plausible. Biden was at that time within a normal polling error or less away of actually winning the 413 nut map. He literally led multiple polls in states like Texas and Iowa. And we only had one example at that time (2016) of Trump overperforming polls significantly. It seemed plausible that it was just a fluke and that indeed it was just as likely the polls might underestimate Biden rather than overestimate him, given that there was historically no clear rhyme or reason to who the polls would underestimate. Back then it was the Trump fans who were the poll deniers and I was ridiculing.

None of this is true anymore.

Your R nut map was wrong in 22

Lol, lol Fetterman losing plse, users thinks he will lose in 28, Fetterman is the most underrated D out there

Users know Fetterman 2028 is inevitable.

[Ancestral Republican]

[wbrocks67]

Biden was ahead by 10 points in the average around this time in 2020, and over 8 points by the end. He ended up winning by less than half that and still won the decisive states by less than Trump did in 2016, despite polls showing him comfortably ahead in all of them too, especially Wisconsin which once again had a massive polling error.

If Biden is “ahead” 0.2 now in hack G. Elliott Morris’s average (and he’s actually doing worse in his forecast, which now has them tied which would be a Trump win in the House), he’s down bigly. Even if he actually won the popular vote by 0.2, he’s getting wiped out in the electoral college. There is no world in which he can rely on Wisconsin or the sun belt states to pull through this time if he’s winning by that little, and he has to win at least one. To say nothing of his problems in Michigan or Pennsylvania, where just slightly decreased minority turnout (they don’t have to actually vote for Trump!) as there’s a lot of evidence will happen will seal the deal, to say nothing of the probability that the WWC will just lurch further right.

Celebrating this is actually sad, and just a sign of how FUBAR Biden truly is.

People called me a bloomer in 2020, and now some call me a doomer. Reality is I’ve never been wither. I just call it as I see it based on the best evidence available to me at the time, without letting  my preferences or feelings get in the way. Wbrocks is what a true bloomer looks like.

[/b]

Dude, you're seriously obsessed with me and it's getting very weird. Please stop.

[axiomsofdominion]

Biden at new peak 0.3% lead, highest ever in the 538 national polling tracker. Apparently from adding that Missouri Emerson poll lmao.

[VALibertarian]

Not surprised to see this, although a little surprised it isn't higher; I guess I had unrealistic expectations my thought was the guilty verdict would catapult Biden to a 1-3 point lead rather quickly, although now I'm adjusting that to maybe by late July? Sooner if Trump tanks in the debate although I'm skeptical how much of an impact it'll have being this far out.

I remain unconvinced of a serious race change, although I can see the argument that this is the start of Bidenmentum to build to a solid lead by election day, or alternatively the argument that this will revert back to MOE tied race. I suppose we'll have to wait another month+ to see the effects of Debate/Sentencing/other events.