Biden takes the lead on the 538 poll average for first time this cycle

[VALibertarian]

Not surprised to see this, although a little surprised it isn't higher; I guess I had unrealistic expectations my thought was the guilty verdict would catapult Biden to a 1-3 point lead rather quickly, although now I'm adjusting that to maybe by late July? Sooner if Trump tanks in the debate although I'm skeptical how much of an impact it'll have being this far out.

I remain unconvinced of a serious race change, although I can see the argument that this is the start of Bidenmentum to build to a solid lead by election day, or alternatively the argument that this will revert back to MOE tied race. I suppose we'll have to wait another month+ to see the effects of Debate/Sentencing/other events.