What rust belt state makes you the most nervous right now?

[Tekken_Guy]

What rust belt state makes you the most nervous right now?

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan given that it doesn't have an incumbent Senator.

[They not like us]

Wisconsin always seems to cock things up at any given opportunity.

[Christian Man]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pennsylvania because it's less white than WI but was closer in 2020 than MI. It's also the most religious

[Tekken_Guy]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

If Black voters in Detroit don’t show up, it’s hard to see them show up in Philly either so Biden’s likely cooked in PA as well if he loses MI.

Also, if Trump’s won Wisconsin he’s likely won the election unless you think Biden’s in better shape in Arizona than polls suggest, and MI/PA are likely just icing on the cake for him.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan given that it doesn't have an incumbent Senator.

Reverse senate coattails don’t exist. By that logic we should write off Arizona for Trump because of how horrible Kari Lake is doing.

[Mr. Smith]

Michigan given that it doesn't have an incumbent Senator.

Reverse senate coattails don’t exist. By that logic we should write off Arizona for Trump because of how horrible Kari Lake is doing.

Wisconsin 2016 doesn't agree.

[Christian Man]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

If Black voters in Detroit don’t show up, it’s hard to see them show up in Philly either so Biden’s likely cooked in PA as well if he loses MI.

Also, if Trump’s won Wisconsin he’s likely won the election unless you think Biden’s in better shape in Arizona than polls suggest, and MI/PA are likely just icing on the cake for him.

I'm not writing out Arizona, but the abortion referendum might bring out some new/infrequent voters which is likely to help Biden.

[Christian Man]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

If Black voters in Detroit don’t show up, it’s hard to see them show up in Philly either so Biden’s likely cooked in PA as well if he loses MI.

Also, if Trump’s won Wisconsin he’s likely won the election unless you think Biden’s in better shape in Arizona than polls suggest, and MI/PA are likely just icing on the cake for him.

And you have a great point about Philly. I was thinking broadly of its suburbs, but turnout in Philly is crucial as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None because the polls aren't votes, we did fine in 22 when the votes came in

[Obama24]

Interesting...

I looked up Google analytics for the term, "Trump"

In the past 24 hours, the biggest area that has searched that term is Wisconsin. For the past week, it was #2 only behind DC as the area where most were searching the term from.

A search for "Donald Trump" yielded the same result - except that Wisconsin is the #1 area of those results for the past 7 days. In the past 7 days, also, the second area that searched "Donald Trump" the most was Michigan. 3rd was DC, fourth was PA.

In contrast, 'Joe Biden' was searched for most in Delaware followed by DC, with Wisconsin in third place, PA in fourth, and WV in 5th.

search term 'Biden' for the past 7 days was most searched for in DC, followed by Delaware,  followed by Arizona, followed by PA, followed by Wisconsin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pennsylvania, only because if Trump flips it and Georgia he wins.

Though Wisconsin, politically, is the one I am the least certain about, always.

[dspNY]

Wisconsin, because Michigan and Pennsylvania were solidly Democratic in the last midterm. Wisconsin reelected Ron Johnson by a point despite losing the governor's race. Wisconsin was also the closest of the big three in 2020

[dw93]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

I think Detroit’s suburbs and the Grand Rapids area will have a similar effect for Biden in Michigan as Philly’s in PA.

Also don’t see MI voting to the right of WI. Much harder for Trump to close a 150k vote gap in MI than a 20k one in WI.

[dw93]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

I think Detroit’s suburbs and the Grand Rapids area will have a similar effect for Biden in Michigan as Philly’s in PA.

Also don’t see MI voting to the right of WI. Much harder for Trump to close a 150k vote gap in MI than a 20k one in WI.

I agree with others on the forum that turnout in Dearborn could make or break Biden in MI.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

I think Detroit’s suburbs and the Grand Rapids area will have a similar effect for Biden in Michigan as Philly’s in PA.

Also don’t see MI voting to the right of WI. Much harder for Trump to close a 150k vote gap in MI than a 20k one in WI.

I agree with others on the forum that turnout in Dearborn could make or break Biden in MI.

I disagree. The Arab vote is far too small to decide the state unless the race is within 0.5%, and I can’t see Trump making those gains and not having flipped the other two states since the other demographics he can gain with (WWC, urban blacks, young voters) are also pretty prominent in WI/PA.

[holtridge]

Michigan

[PeteB]

"Most nervous" is a strong expression, but I think that the most uncertain results will be in Wisconsin.  Both sides have a legitimate shot there.

The other two are much harder for Republicans.  Michigan wouldn't even be discussed if it wasn't for Gaza and, while Biden has problems in that area, I don't see Trump appealing much to Arab Americans.  PA is leaning 2-3% to the Democrats and turning that will require some major event.

So, the final answer - Wisconsin.
  

[Schiff for Senate]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

That is way off the mark. IA will not vote for Trump by nearly that much. Rurals have mostly maxed out and there's little more room for improvement for GOP margins, and places like Dallas County are growing rapidly and zooming leftward.

I will be positively shocked if Trump wins IA by even 15 points, let alone 20.

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin because between "white voters are remaining loyal Biden patriots" and "black voters are shifting Republican", I much less believe the former than the latter, so that's why I believe Michigan and PA could be more reliable than Wisconsin in the end.