What rust belt state makes you the most nervous right now?

[Tekken_Guy]

What rust belt state makes you the most nervous right now?

[Tekken_Guy]

If I were a Trump supporter I'd say Pennsylvania. If I were a Biden supporter I'd say Michigan. Both of those states depend on turnout. It's important for Biden that college students in Ann Arbor and AAs in Detroit show up, since it's unlikely that Muslims in Dearborn are going to. If not then it'll be more likely to be a Trump win. For Biden it'll depend on Eastern PA. If they show up, he should win it. The main reason Clinton lost it was due to lack of enthusiasm in this part of the state, while Trump had no problem with turnout in Western PA. If the polls are correct that Trump could win Iowa by nearly 20 points, then he should easily win WI.

If Black voters in Detroit don’t show up, it’s hard to see them show up in Philly either so Biden’s likely cooked in PA as well if he loses MI.

Also, if Trump’s won Wisconsin he’s likely won the election unless you think Biden’s in better shape in Arizona than polls suggest, and MI/PA are likely just icing on the cake for him.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan given that it doesn't have an incumbent Senator.

Reverse senate coattails don’t exist. By that logic we should write off Arizona for Trump because of how horrible Kari Lake is doing.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

I think Detroit’s suburbs and the Grand Rapids area will have a similar effect for Biden in Michigan as Philly’s in PA.

Also don’t see MI voting to the right of WI. Much harder for Trump to close a 150k vote gap in MI than a 20k one in WI.

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan. I think the burbs of Philly will help Biden in PA and Abortion will help Biden in WI.

I think Detroit’s suburbs and the Grand Rapids area will have a similar effect for Biden in Michigan as Philly’s in PA.

Also don’t see MI voting to the right of WI. Much harder for Trump to close a 150k vote gap in MI than a 20k one in WI.

I agree with others on the forum that turnout in Dearborn could make or break Biden in MI.

I disagree. The Arab vote is far too small to decide the state unless the race is within 0.5%, and I can’t see Trump making those gains and not having flipped the other two states since the other demographics he can gain with (WWC, urban blacks, young voters) are also pretty prominent in WI/PA.