2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: South Carolina

[BoiseBoy]

I was able to create this newest map in DRA thanks to the SC Senate's interactive map which highlights precincts and cuts when you zoom in.



It's pretty least change from the current map overall. SC-01 shifts 3.3 points to the right (it would be Trump +9.3). SC-02 shifts 0.2 points to the left. SC-04 shifts 1.8 points to the left.

[Tekken_Guy]

I was able to create this newest map in DRA thanks to the SC Senate's interactive map which highlights precincts and cuts when you zoom in.



It's pretty least change from the current map overall. SC-01 shifts 3.3 points to the right (it would be Trump +9.3). SC-02 shifts 0.2 points to the left. SC-04 shifts 1.8 points to the left.

They did seem to shore up SC-02 a bit from the alternative house proposal.

[BoiseBoy]

I was able to create this newest map in DRA thanks to the SC Senate's interactive map which highlights precincts and cuts when you zoom in.



It's pretty least change from the current map overall. SC-01 shifts 3.3 points to the right (it would be Trump +9.3). SC-02 shifts 0.2 points to the left. SC-04 shifts 1.8 points to the left.

They did seem to shore up SC-02 a bit from the alternative house proposal.

I was looking at the wrong plan. These are the two that were posted today:
https://scsenate.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=7a18850aaacf4be1a1b482b0377bb2bf

https://scsenate.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=d665cd0a95014301befca1b001bc9eac

[Tekken_Guy]

I was able to create this newest map in DRA thanks to the SC Senate's interactive map which highlights precincts and cuts when you zoom in.



It's pretty least change from the current map overall. SC-01 shifts 3.3 points to the right (it would be Trump +9.3). SC-02 shifts 0.2 points to the left. SC-04 shifts 1.8 points to the left.

They did seem to shore up SC-02 a bit from the alternative house proposal.

I was looking at the wrong plan. These are the two that were posted today:
https://scsenate.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=7a18850aaacf4be1a1b482b0377bb2bf

https://scsenate.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=d665cd0a95014301befca1b001bc9eac

Well that first plan is dead in the water.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

From what I'm hearing, the House alternative plan is the favorite right now. Redistricting committee voted to adopt it on party lines.

The senate redistricting bill has been amended to match the House plan.

Will SC-01 hold for the whole decade with that map? What about SC-02?

They both should barring a D wave or a GOP collapse nationally

What about trends?

Still both should generally hold, SC-01 especially with Mace.

Mace could very well be going statewide this decade and the seat might open up. And Joe Cunningham was a strong incumbent who outperformed Biden and Harrison in his seat and could win it back at some point.

And Joe Wilson is old and could very possibly retire soon.

I have a feeling Wilson is gonna die in that seat with his son Alan winning the special election to replace him

Joe Wilson's just 74. Does he have any health problems of note?

74 is old, and he’s been in politics since 1985. He’ll likely have a safe seat for as long as he wants it and I see no reason he hold on another 5-15 years 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what I'm hearing, the House alternative plan is the favorite right now. Redistricting committee voted to adopt it on party lines.

The senate redistricting bill has been amended to match the House plan.

Will SC-01 hold for the whole decade with that map? What about SC-02?

They both should barring a D wave or a GOP collapse nationally

What about trends?

Still both should generally hold, SC-01 especially with Mace.

Mace could very well be going statewide this decade and the seat might open up. And Joe Cunningham was a strong incumbent who outperformed Biden and Harrison in his seat and could win it back at some point.

And Joe Wilson is old and could very possibly retire soon.

I have a feeling Wilson is gonna die in that seat with his son Alan winning the special election to replace him

Joe Wilson's just 74. Does he have any health problems of note?

74 is old, and he’s been in politics since 1985. He’ll likely have a safe seat for as long as he wants it and I see no reason he hold on another 5-15 years 

I dunno if 74 is really "old" for a politician anymore.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1486434116153315338?s=20

Senate Amendment 1 passes House.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1486434116153315338?s=20
Senate Amendment 1 passes House.

Kinda surprising they only shored up Mace a little bit when SC-02 could be troublesome down the line.

[Roll Roons]

Safe 6-1 in 2022, but SC-01 and SC-02 could very possibly be in trouble down the road.

[Tekken_Guy]

Safe 6-1 in 2022, but SC-01 and SC-02 could very possibly be in trouble down the road.

Joe Cunningham comeback bid imminent?

[BoiseBoy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

[Tekken_Guy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

[BoiseBoy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

[Tekken_Guy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

That’s what I meant. A 2026 midterm may be the perfect time for Joe Cunningham to make a comeback. Or a 2025 special if Tim Scott is POTUS/VP/ in the Cabinet and Mace replaces him in the Senate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

That’s what I meant. A 2026 midterm may be the perfect time for Joe Cunningham to make a comeback. Or a 2025 special if Tim Scott is POTUS/VP/ in the Cabinet and Mace replaces him in the Senate.

SC-02 has a lot of blood red rural white areas. Yea the Aiken and Lexington areas are trending blue, but they’ll have to do it faster then the rural regions turning red/redder. I don’t see it flipping soon, much as I want Wilson out

[Tekken_Guy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

That’s what I meant. A 2026 midterm may be the perfect time for Joe Cunningham to make a comeback. Or a 2025 special if Tim Scott is POTUS/VP/ in the Cabinet and Mace replaces him in the Senate.

SC-02 has a lot of blood red rural white areas. Yea the Aiken and Lexington areas are trending blue, but they’ll have to do it faster then the rural regions turning red/redder. I don’t see it flipping soon, much as I want Wilson out

The rural areas don’t seem to be moving any way politically. Trends in Richland, Lexington, and Aiken will keep the district moving leftward.

And SC-01 had hardly any rurals and it’s only a couple points redder than its current incarnation.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

That’s what I meant. A 2026 midterm may be the perfect time for Joe Cunningham to make a comeback. Or a 2025 special if Tim Scott is POTUS/VP/ in the Cabinet and Mace replaces him in the Senate.

SC-02 has a lot of blood red rural white areas. Yea the Aiken and Lexington areas are trending blue, but they’ll have to do it faster then the rural regions turning red/redder. I don’t see it flipping soon, much as I want Wilson out

The rural areas don’t seem to be moving any way politically. Trends in Richland, Lexington, and Aiken will keep the district moving leftward.

And SC-01 had hardly any rurals and it’s only a couple points redder than its current incarnation.

I was just talking about SC-02, and a decent portion of both Aiken and Lexington are very rural places. SC-01 is an entirely different story and I would not be shocked at all if it becomes a swing seat in a few years. It still doesn’t surprise me they didn’t shore it up though, doing so would require a radically different congressional map

[Tekken_Guy]

McMaster has signed off on the new map. South Carolina is finished.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1486724342901719041?s=21

Dummymander potential?

Not in 2022 or 2024. A 2026 GOP midterm however could be interesting. SC-02 actually got marginally bluer in the new map and SC-01 only moved about two points to the right.

That’s what I meant. A 2026 midterm may be the perfect time for Joe Cunningham to make a comeback. Or a 2025 special if Tim Scott is POTUS/VP/ in the Cabinet and Mace replaces him in the Senate.

SC-02 has a lot of blood red rural white areas. Yea the Aiken and Lexington areas are trending blue, but they’ll have to do it faster then the rural regions turning red/redder. I don’t see it flipping soon, much as I want Wilson out

The rural areas don’t seem to be moving any way politically. Trends in Richland, Lexington, and Aiken will keep the district moving leftward.

And SC-01 had hardly any rurals and it’s only a couple points redder than its current incarnation.

I was just talking about SC-02, and a decent portion of both Aiken and Lexington are very rural places. SC-01 is an entirely different story and I would not be shocked at all if it becomes a swing seat in a few years. It still doesn’t surprise me they didn’t shore it up though, doing so would require a radically different congressional map

They slightly shored her up but they couldn’t go as far as OK or UT did because of geography and the VRA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas when looking at bog-standard status quo map:


"Is this a dummymander?"

[Tintrlvr]

Well, it's over, but nothing to stop us for continuing to draw maps! This would have been my fair SC map, which I think would result in another black Democrat being elected from Columbia (though it's not possible to make the district plurality black) and leaves the Charleston seat competitive.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c9b00632-efad-409d-9733-285cfca8d50f

[Tekken_Guy]

Atlas when looking at bog-standard status quo map:


"Is this a dummymander?"

Is there any reason to believe it won’t be a dummymander?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas when looking at bog-standard status quo map:


"Is this a dummymander?"

Is there any reason to believe it won’t be a dummymander?

...the only remotely competitive district is shored up by a few points. That's just not a dummymander. By no reasonable person's definition would that be a dummymander. On what planet do you live in??

[Tekken_Guy]

Atlas when looking at bog-standard status quo map:


"Is this a dummymander?"

Is there any reason to believe it won’t be a dummymander?

...the only remotely competitive district is shored up by a few points. That's just not a dummymander. By no reasonable person's definition would that be a dummymander. On what planet do you live in??

I’m referring to it becoming a dummymander later in the decade, not being one now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas when looking at bog-standard status quo map:


"Is this a dummymander?"

Is there any reason to believe it won’t be a dummymander?

...the only remotely competitive district is shored up by a few points. That's just not a dummymander. By no reasonable person's definition would that be a dummymander. On what planet do you live in??

I’m referring to it becoming a dummymander later in the decade, not being one now.

I mean, anything can happen in a decade, but that's not what a dummymander means. A dummymander is a map that's counterproductive to the party that enacted it based on what we actually know, not on speculations about future trends.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1522638618065620995

South Carolina decided to do some settlement on state house maps. I guess it just has to be out of not wanting to fight the case. Seems plenty winnable to me.

 55 looks sorta bad on the old map with Horry but the new 52 is basically what Ever's did in Wisconsin.