Hard to say. Probably would have given Trump slight edge as economy was doing well, but hubris might have defeated him as he tends to overplay his hand. Biggest difference is regardless of outcome, would have known winner much sooner and you wouldn't have had red and blue mirages you saw on election night or at least would have disappeared within a few hours and made more sense (i.e. which counties reporting not totally weird results like you saw).
We do know that pollsters in 2020 predicted Biden's share correctly on average, so we can make a guess.
Biden pre-corona: 48-50%
So Trump ought to have done at least 1.5% better than his actual 2020 result.
I guess Biden 49.5 Trump 48.5 , and no change from 2016 apart from Trump winning Nevada.
