MT S Torchlight R Strategy Sheehy +6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1806842559198626004

[TML]

A reminder that back in 2012 (the last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential election year), the largest polling deficit Tester faced back then was 10 points (one Rasmussen poll in May 2012 showed Rehberg 53 - Tester 43).

[Dave Hedgehog]

Honestly Biden comes off looking better in this poll seeing as how it’s an R internal and he’s only losing by the same amount as last time. Don’t see how this can be spun positively for Tester I’m afraid; he really needs to get dirt-dishing on Sheehy fast.

[TML]

Honestly Biden comes off looking better in this poll seeing as how it’s an R internal and he’s only losing by the same amount as last time. Don’t see how this can be spun positively for Tester I’m afraid; he really needs to get dirt-dishing on Sheehy fast.

I'm not saying this poll should be spun positively for Tester; I'm saying that he has historically faced greater polling deficits than this (with his opponent above 50% to boot in that other poll), so it would be premature to say "Tester is all but certain to lose" at this point. The proper circumstance to panic would be if Tester is trailing in most polls conducted during the last month or two before Election Day (which was the case for Heidi Heitkamp in 2018).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This polls is well within MOE which is 6 pts

[Sir Mohamed]

R internal that needs to be validated by other pollsters. That said, I expect this and OH to flip. Which would give Trump a triecta.

[SnowLabrador]

Tester has not led a poll since February. Even in 2012 he led in the PPP polls, and in 2018 he barely trailed in any polls. This is the most difficult race of Tester's career by far, and I don't see how he wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R internal that needs to be validated by other pollsters. That said, I expect this and OH to flip. Which would give Trump a triecta.

As said it's 6% MOE

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sheehy only at 47% is the only reason this is still a tosdup to me.

Odds are Tester more likely loses than doesn't.  Although I still think it's possible that this is the GOP's only pickup, which would be quite pathetic.

[President Johnson]

Sheehy only at 47% is the only reason this is still a tosdup to me.

Odds are Tester more likely loses than doesn't.  Although I still think it's possible that this is the GOP's only pickup, which would be quite pathetic.

You mean only pickup beyond West Virginia? That one is basically a given.

[ShadowRocket]

I had thought between the two, that Tester was more likely to survive than Brown, but it may be time to change that thinking.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sheehy only at 47% is the only reason this is still a tosdup to me.

Odds are Tester more likely loses than doesn't.  Although I still think it's possible that this is the GOP's only pickup, which would be quite pathetic.

You mean only pickup beyond West Virginia? That one is basically a given.

Yes.