Swing states - Biden internal polling (unnamed pollster) - Trump +1

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1807890979544093043?t=NMgNSnPlh6RhROlYmsUXyQ&a...

[Progressive Pessimist]

This still isn't  good...

[King Brandon I]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

[King Brandon I]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

[Eraserhead]

So we're at the point where they are leaking their own internal polls that have them losing to show that there supposedly wasn't any movement after the debate? Alright then.

[RBH]

the margin between Biden and Trump in 2020 in those 7 states was only 1% if you round up

Biden won 15.4M votes and 49.6% in those 7 states
Trump won 15.1M votes and 48.8% in the same 7 states

so let's not throw dishes at brick walls over this

[King Brandon I]

the margin between Biden and Trump in 2020 in those 7 states was only 1% if you round up

Biden won 15.4M votes and 49.6% in those 7 states
Trump won 15.1M votes and 48.8% in the same 7 states

so let's not throw dishes at brick walls over this

That’s what I’m saying here, still think they should have done it state to state

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

If you actually think an internal published after the same candidate bombed a debate is reliable and not desperation I don't know what to tell you.

[kwabbit]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

If you actually think an internal published after the same candidate bombed a debate is reliable and not desperation I don't know what to tell you.

Guy whose job is to say that his polling doesn't show Biden is DOA: "My polling doesn't show Biden is DOA"

MR. DARK BRANDON: 2 7 0 - 2 6 8  M A P

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

If you actually think an internal published after the same candidate bombed a debate is reliable and not desperation I don't know what to tell you.

Guy whose job is to say that his polling doesn't show Biden is DOA: "My polling doesn't show Biden is DOA"

MR. DARK BRANDON: 2 7 0 - 2 6 8  M A P

I actually think it is a realistic map because I don't dismiss the crosstabs off hand like SOME people /s. But ita just the timing and the fact it's an internal, it's not reliable.

[King Brandon I]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

If you actually think an internal published after the same candidate bombed a debate is reliable and not desperation I don't know what to tell you.

Guy whose job is to say that his polling doesn't show Biden is DOA: "My polling doesn't show Biden is DOA"

MR. DARK BRANDON: 2 7 0 - 2 6 8  M A P

MB I was Just speculating here on what could happen based on how these states voted in 2020. Would like to know Where this is from though, I was under the impression that these where directly from the campaign (same way the ones that said the race was closer did) but I could be wrong.

[RBH]

the data in internal polling can't be McLaughlin Polling levels of BS for some obvious reasons

it's a lot easier to just question what doesn't get released since no campaign releases all of their polling anyways

[kwabbit]

This still isn't  good...

Given how these states vote an average of T+1 across all 7 could mean a Biden victory.

It's internal polling dude! He's cooked.

I think this is campaign polling, not a push one and T+1 across all 7 states could mean smth like this.

If you actually think an internal published after the same candidate bombed a debate is reliable and not desperation I don't know what to tell you.

Guy whose job is to say that his polling doesn't show Biden is DOA: "My polling doesn't show Biden is DOA"

MR. DARK BRANDON: 2 7 0 - 2 6 8  M A P

MB I was Just speculating here on what could happen based on how these states voted in 2020. Would like to know Where this is from though, I was under the impression that these where directly from the campaign (same way the ones that said the race was closer did) but I could be wrong.

I believe it's referring to Geoff Garin tweeting that polling hasn't changed significantly. The problem is that he would never say that it's changed a lot, and his definition of significantly very well might be 3 point movement against Biden, which isn't necessarily a lot but would be construed as catastrophic.

[ajc0918]

We haven't seen many high-quality pollsters release yet but I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers were correct.

[RBH]

if Rs have favorable internals, they could probably leak them to a reporter and get it reported quickly

[Mehmentum]

As a rule of thumb, if a campaign is citing internal polling in which they are down, that is a very bad sign.

[axiomsofdominion]

This is Hart Research for people who don't know.

They do polls for NBC and CNBC and some others.

They had Trump up 1 or 2 in April and March.

This polling is fine but not ideal unless they are straight up lying.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So the good news... is an internal of the incumbent president where he is down? And specifically an unnamed internal/pollster?

[wbrocks67]

Guess I was wrong in assuming they should leak any internal bc no one would believe it anyway lol

Internals are internals, so who really knows, but what I will say is Jen O'Malley Dillon's internals in 2020 were much more closer to reality than public polling. Whether that's accurate now is anyones guess

[CookieDamage]

GA and NC are included which are borderline lean R states at this point. So Trump +1 is not that great for Trump, not good for Biden either. But this result implies that the other states are possibly Dem leaning, like MI, WI, and PA.

[DaleCooper]

This still isn't  good...

Trump +1 in those states with North Carolina and Georgia included probably is pretty good for Biden. I don't believe it, though. Any leaked polls from the Biden campaign cannot be trusted.

[philly09]

I assume this is the poll the Geoff had conducted. If not, he'll probably release it today.
https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/1807145754831847850

[BlueSwan]

As a rule of thumb, if a campaign is citing internal polling in which they are down, that is a very bad sign.

Exactly, because this means that these are the BEST polls that they got.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

That 270-268 Biden map is the nightmare map that keeps me up at night.