French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Logical]

LMAO
https://twitter.com/Bron_Maher/status/1807706793105101236?t=eH8euyKbyzbfQAfMBVYP...

[Epaminondas]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

Of course, it's an illusion thanks to the Parisian thumb on the scale, and to the RN figure not including the Ciotti crowd...

Precisely. The voting share of NFP outside of Paris is actually dismal, possibly below 20%.

[lfromnj]

Duality of man

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

That.... Isn't true, from the results I've seen so far.

I wish it were, lol. The NFP did about as well as expected, with a less efficient vote it seems...

[lfromnj]

We were discussing a week ago or so about low Muslim turnout. I assume this time around the fear of Le Pen increased their turnout ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes it does seem that whilst the RN slightly underperformed their polling (which is now becoming a bit of a pattern with the populist right, despite all the breathless talk of them being an unstoppable "wave" that is going to sweep across the whole of Europe) their vote was also annoyingly efficient.

And the opposite is true, by and large, for the left wing parties.

Ah well.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes it does seem that whilst the RN slightly underperformed their polling (which is now becoming a bit of a pattern with the populist right, despite all the breathless talk of them being an unstoppable "wave" that is going to sweep across the whole of Europe) their vote was also annoyingly efficient.

And the opposite is true, by and large, for the left wing parties.

Ah well.

I mean this has been a thing about their coalition for a while.

2017 pres round 1, where Le Pen lost by 3%:


2019 EU results where they led by 1%:


Outside of inner IdF, and the cities in general, the votes for FN/RN are always distributed fairly well across the rest of the country. Only now they have 30% rather than 20%, so the map is much more in their favor.

But the dynamic hasn't really changed. They lead in a lot of places but in those places they have often mid-30s to 40%. Which is why the MOE on outcomes in my opinion got very wide last night. There are two things I want so we can get a accurate picture, and thankfully results sites like Le Monde are tracking candidates as they drop out which satisfies one of those desires. The second one is a voting behavior survey, asking each block of voters - ENS+, LR, RN, NFP - what they would do in various runoff scenarios. I doubt we will be getting anything like that with only a few days to go.

[Battista Minola 1616]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

RN aren’t Nazis . Unless of course you believe in the principles of “judge the kid for their father’s sins” . Not very liberal isn’t it

Whatever helps you sleep at night, buddy.

We have had literally Jewish liberal posters on here say they would back Le Pen over Macron let alone the left  so maybe you should think to your self why that is

All of this should really stop, but I just want to point out that this is sort of a strange point to make when speaking to... a Jewish liberal poster.

[Epaminondas]

I'm seeing a few seats with RN third and LR fourth where a possibly coalescing of the far right could leapfrog NFP/Ens to first if they refuse to withdraw.

Have any instructions to stand down been given to candidates who came second?

[Battista Minola 1616]

I'm seeing a few seats with RN third and LR fourth where a possibly coalescing of the far right could leapfrog NFP/Ens to first if they refuse to withdraw.

Have any instructions to stand down been given to candidates who came second?

I don't think so, however in the situation you describe LR might simply indicate to vote tactically for Ensemble to stop the Left. That said, I honestly have no idea whether their remaining electorate overall prefers Macron's party or Le Pen's.

[axiomsofdominion]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

Of course, it's an illusion thanks to the Parisian thumb on the scale, and to the RN figure not including the Ciotti crowd...

Precisely. The voting share of NFP outside of Paris is actually dismal, possibly below 20%.

That's like saying the vote for Dems outside California and New York is dismal.

I guess it is hard for me to evaluate countries with only 1 real city, because in America we have lots of enormous cities. But our left/right split is fully as urban/rural as the one in France. Just seems normal to me.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Supposing the cordon sanitaire holds, how many seats would RN be expected to win?

[Sestak]

     Supposing the cordon sanitaire holds, how many seats would RN be expected to win?

Very wide range of what could be interpreted as “holds”. Based on my cursory look yesterday, a 60% or even 70% transfer each way between the left and Ensemble would give the RN far more seats than a theoretical 100% transfer.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Supposing the cordon sanitaire holds, how many seats would RN be expected to win?

Very wide range of what could be interpreted as “holds”. Based on my cursory look yesterday, a 60% or even 70% transfer each way between the left and Ensemble would give the RN far more seats than a theoretical 100% transfer.

     I guess the definition I have in mind is that all third-place ENS/NFP candidates obediently drop out and their voters redistribute naturally. I ask mainly because I don't know enough about French politics to guess what the redistribution would look like.

[Oryxslayer]

     Supposing the cordon sanitaire holds, how many seats would RN be expected to win?

Very wide range of what could be interpreted as “holds”. Based on my cursory look yesterday, a 60% or even 70% transfer each way between the left and Ensemble would give the RN far more seats than a theoretical 100% transfer.

     I guess the definition I have in mind is that all third-place ENS/NFP candidates obediently drop out and their voters redistribute naturally. I ask mainly because I don't know enough about French politics to guess what the redistribution would look like.

I will note that me, and I think Antonio and maybe some others, are currently doing the slow seat-by-seat analysis to roughly determine what realistic outcomes may look like exactly in various scenarios. I guess if you want something close to a solid number count ATM, in the event voters follow the parties directions to a realistically believable degree than RN still will be the single largest party, but no block would be close to a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At long f**king last, here it is:



Figuring out a comprehensible color scheme with 24 different shades took almost as long as actually filling in the map, and I gave up on including the DTOMs because even with all available sources it's just impossible to classify most candidates in a meaningful category.

A full tally is incoming but I wanted to post this so it's done.

[axiomsofdominion]

I would personally do 3 way races with gray scale, decided seats with RGB or RGBY, and then blend 2 way races with the two colors of the party in the RGB scheme.

But I guess I can't say it would be better without swapping the colors to check.

[Poirot]

"The results of the constituencies of French people living outside France have finally been published by the Ministry of the Interior.

In the 1st constituency  (North America) , Roland Lescure (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 38.84%, against Oussama Laraichi (EELV-NFP) with 36.12%. Jennifer Adam (RN) is notably eliminated with 10.70%.

Ensemble candidates are doing well outside of France.

There is a more detailed result here:
https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-francais/voter-a-l-etranger/resultats-des-elections/article/elections-legislatives-anticipees-resultats-du-1er-tour-pour-les-francais-de-l

It has results in person and by internet by consulate.

For North America. the NFP has a big margin of victory over Ensemble of 6753 votes in Montreal. Montreal represents a third of the North American voters. NFP adds about another 1000 margin votes in Quebec City. About 75 in Moncton, 300 in Vancouver. Ensemble wins by almost 200 votes in Toronto and wins all American cities except New Orleans but few votes(103 NFI, 91 Ensemble) . In the final total Ensemble ends up ahead by more than 2500 votes.

New York is +3181 margin for Ensemble. San Francisco +2173, +1188 Los Angeles, about a thousand margin votes in Miami and Houston, about 500 in Atlanta. Boston, Chicago, Washington.

[windjammer]

At long f**king last, here it is:



Figuring out a comprehensible color scheme with 24 different shades took almost as long as actually filling in the map, and I gave up on including the DTOMs because even with all available sources it's just impossible to classify most candidates in a meaningful category.

A full tally is incoming but I wanted to post this so it's done.

Antonio out of curiosity what is your final prediction ?

Mine : RN finishes first but they don't have a majority and RN + LR either

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio out of curiosity what is your final prediction ?

Mine : RN finishes first but they don't have a majority and RN + LR either

It seems very unlikely that RN will have an absolute majority, yeah. It'd take really abysmal vote transfers not just from Macronists to the left, but from the left to Macronists, which is possible but would surprise me.

I'll eventually work my way toward some rough seat by seat predictions (with lots of tossups since the point is to know where to look). But to do that there's a lot more data I need to collect, starting with the actual candidacies which will be finalized tomorrow.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

This is such a misguided post. I'm probably the Francophone on here who is Mélenchon's harshest critic, I genuinely hold him personally responsible for the dismal state of the French Left, but he is *not* a Communist and his "petty bourgeois" electorate  are not petty bourgeois, even your stereotypical white LFI activists isn't petty bourgeois, they are inner city, high educated but poorly paid and competing for dirt cheap jobs relative to, say, the people that emigrate to America/Canada.

His foreign policy views are obviously atrocious but they are not exclusively to do with anti-Western Communism. It may have escaped you but Europeans are sacrificing their buying power Vs the median American because we pay the American corporate gangster class top dollar for LNG just to fund the forever war with Putin that the usual nutcases like Sikorski were again touting. It's part of an overal sentiment that since the Washington Consensus the EU is being set up to basically be a theme park and consumer market for the dollar, totally deindustrialized and vassalised.

"it's not anti-western communism" (proceeds to regurgitate pro-Putin talking points that absolves Europe of selling out its energy future to Russia)

[Zinneke]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

This is such a misguided post. I'm probably the Francophone on here who is Mélenchon's harshest critic, I genuinely hold him personally responsible for the dismal state of the French Left, but he is *not* a Communist and his "petty bourgeois" electorate  are not petty bourgeois, even your stereotypical white LFI activists isn't petty bourgeois, they are inner city, high educated but poorly paid and competing for dirt cheap jobs relative to, say, the people that emigrate to America/Canada.

His foreign policy views are obviously atrocious but they are not exclusively to do with anti-Western Communism. It may have escaped you but Europeans are sacrificing their buying power Vs the median American because we pay the American corporate gangster class top dollar for LNG just to fund the forever war with Putin that the usual nutcases like Sikorski were again touting. It's part of an overal sentiment that since the Washington Consensus the EU is being set up to basically be a theme park and consumer market for the dollar, totally deindustrialized and vassalised.

"it's not anti-western communism" (proceeds to regurgitate pro-Putin talking points that absolves Europe of selling out its energy future to Russia)

Right I get it, you, and Antonio are basically neo-McCarthyites, ready to point out any traitor who doesn't tow the most extreme black and white line on this conflict.

Meanwhile I am just trying to show why someone in the EU would be fed up of US hegemony in Europe and want a change of course. I'm not particularly in favour of it but I'm trying to provide a sense of perspective. But you and Antonio continue your crusade! You sure don't look like abstract ideologues who have no sense of the issues the working class European has to go through, or even the Ukrainian who sees their own globalist-loving oligarchy party hard in Dubai and Thailand with your ilk while they sacrifice themselves so Sikorski and Glucksmann can receive suitcases of cash from the UAE and Georgia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

This is such a misguided post. I'm probably the Francophone on here who is Mélenchon's harshest critic, I genuinely hold him personally responsible for the dismal state of the French Left, but he is *not* a Communist and his "petty bourgeois" electorate  are not petty bourgeois, even your stereotypical white LFI activists isn't petty bourgeois, they are inner city, high educated but poorly paid and competing for dirt cheap jobs relative to, say, the people that emigrate to America/Canada.

His foreign policy views are obviously atrocious but they are not exclusively to do with anti-Western Communism. It may have escaped you but Europeans are sacrificing their buying power Vs the median American because we pay the American corporate gangster class top dollar for LNG just to fund the forever war with Putin that the usual nutcases like Sikorski were again touting. It's part of an overal sentiment that since the Washington Consensus the EU is being set up to basically be a theme park and consumer market for the dollar, totally deindustrialized and vassalised.

"it's not anti-western communism" (proceeds to regurgitate pro-Putin talking points that absolves Europe of selling out its energy future to Russia)

Right I get it, you, and Antonio the guy who openly boasts about how his US dollar salary is so great in the EU theme park that Americans beg for while gutting us of talent and industry, are basically neo-McCarthyites, ready to point out any traitor who doesn't tow the most extreme black and white line on this conflict.

 Meanwhile I am just trying to show why someone in the EU would be fed up of US hegemony in Europe and want a change of course. I'm not particularly in favour of it but I'm trying to provide a sense of perspective. But you and Antonio continue your crusade! You sure don't look like abstract ideologues who have no sense of the issues the working class European has to go through, or even the Ukrainian who sees their own globalist-loving oligarchy party hard in Dubai and Thailand with your ilk while they sacrifice themselves so Sikorski and Glucksmann can receive suitcases of cash from the UAE and Georgia.

I gave you a second chance but if you spout off random unsubstantiated bullsh*t about my personal life one more time you're never coming off my ignore list again.

[axiomsofdominion]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

This is such a misguided post. I'm probably the Francophone on here who is Mélenchon's harshest critic, I genuinely hold him personally responsible for the dismal state of the French Left, but he is *not* a Communist and his "petty bourgeois" electorate  are not petty bourgeois, even your stereotypical white LFI activists isn't petty bourgeois, they are inner city, high educated but poorly paid and competing for dirt cheap jobs relative to, say, the people that emigrate to America/Canada.

His foreign policy views are obviously atrocious but they are not exclusively to do with anti-Western Communism. It may have escaped you but Europeans are sacrificing their buying power Vs the median American because we pay the American corporate gangster class top dollar for LNG just to fund the forever war with Putin that the usual nutcases like Sikorski were again touting. It's part of an overal sentiment that since the Washington Consensus the EU is being set up to basically be a theme park and consumer market for the dollar, totally deindustrialized and vassalised.

"it's not anti-western communism" (proceeds to regurgitate pro-Putin talking points that absolves Europe of selling out its energy future to Russia)

Right I get it, you, and Antonio the guy who openly boasts about how his US dollar salary is so great in the EU theme park that Americans beg for while gutting us of talent and industry, are basically neo-McCarthyites, ready to point out any traitor who doesn't tow the most extreme black and white line on this conflict.

 Meanwhile I am just trying to show why someone in the EU would be fed up of US hegemony in Europe and want a change of course. I'm not particularly in favour of it but I'm trying to provide a sense of perspective. But you and Antonio continue your crusade! You sure don't look like abstract ideologues who have no sense of the issues the working class European has to go through, or even the Ukrainian who sees their own globalist-loving oligarchy party hard in Dubai and Thailand with your ilk while they sacrifice themselves so Sikorski and Glucksmann can receive suitcases of cash from the UAE and Georgia.

Pretty big difference between toppling US hegemony in Europe and being Russian stooges. Maybe if people separate the two more their arguments would not be taken as pro-Putin.

[buritobr]

French voters in USA + Canada

Ensemble 36363 (39%)
NFP 33822 (36%)
RN 10018 (11%)
LR 4856 (5%)

Miami
Ensemble 1262 (41%)
RN 835 (27%)
NFP 361 (12%)
LR 289 (9%)

Miami attracts the right not only from Latin America


French voters in Latin America
NFP 6952 (36%)
Ensemble (33%)
RN 2553 (13%)

São Paulo
Ensemble 677 (35%)
NFP 611 (32%)
RN 210 (11%)

Rio
NFP 547 (48%)
Ensemble 349 (31%)
RN 94 (8%)

Brasília
NFP 200 (55%)
Ensemble 81 (22%)
RN 45 (12%)

These French voters in Brazil would help us a lot if they get Brazilian citizenship and vote here