French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[jaichind]

Looks like RN and allies will be in first place in a bit over 300 seats.  I fail to see how they can win any seats in the second round where they are in second.  I also figure they will lose at least 15% of the seats they are in the first place given anti-RN consolidation.

So my wild guess is they will likely end up with around 250-260 seats.  That is most likely enough to make non-Ciotti LR and allies hold the balance of power.  It will be fun to watch the 3 or 4-way game of chicken between  LFI, non-LFI NFP, ENS, and non-Ciotti LR to try to form a government in that scenerio.

[Mike88]

If France had FPTP, this would be the result:

297 RN+allies
154 NFP+allies
  69 Ensemble+allies
  25 Républicains+allies
    3 Regionalists
    2 Extreme-right
    1 Others
  26 Uncalled

[OSR stands with Israel]

I love how every time the far-right is ahead in a European election you always have the same handful of American cryptofascist creeps who never otherwise engage in European politics suddenly crawl out of their holes to spout off their rehashed talking points with no relation to the actual issues of the campaign. The audacity of acting like you have anything of any import or meaning to add to the conversation is truly something to behold. This is all the engagement you'll get out of me, though, because I'll be out there engaging in actual electoral analysis.

Even Mongoose said he would support Le Pen if he was French, so its just not right wingers saying it. The fact is mass immigration in Europe has failed and the reason I brought up as a Hindu is due to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest

And the reaction to 10/7 further terrifies me. Thankfully I don't live in France though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cease and desist everyone. Please remain on topic.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Officially endorsing RN . Immigration is the 2nd most important issue for France and as a Hindu self preservation is more important than “muh stopping the far right” .

Least shocking development today.

I am supporting them because of their immigration policies not because inspite it. The only reason I didnt support them in round 1 is cause they are socialists on economic policy but now since we are guaranteed socialism anyway, I will base my support on immigration

Have you ever thought "I genuinely don't understand politics [particularly international] very well" and instead of taking outlandish positions like this, staying neutral and working to understand them better?

France needs mass deportations at this point

I'll take that as a "no"....

Does he "understand [particularly international] politics very well" is one question.

Does he understand what his political interests are in another question.

He seems to articulate that he opposes socialism and mass immigration.

Between two parties where one opposes all of his interests, and the other supports some of his interests, the rational choice seems clear.

What is your real point?

Some interests are more rational and/or more moral (not the same thing!) than others. jaichind, for example, wants people on welfare to be deported despite himself living on investment "income". I'm one to talk, though; so do I, and mine is even inherited. I just don't pretend my lifestyle is morally commendable.

[Mike88]

So, with nearly 90% of the first round vote counted, RN has fallen to around 31%, the left is at 26.5% and Macron' centrists at around 20%.

There are 37 directly elected legislators for the RN, 9 for the left and 2 for Macron.

You have to add the allies of these parties. As of now:

34.6% RN+allies, 37 elected
28.4% NFP+allies, 11
21.9% Ensemble+allies, 2
10.5% Républicains+allies, 3

[jaichind]

If France had FPTP, this would be the result:

297 RN+allies
154 NFP+allies
  69 Ensemble+allies
  25 Républicains+allies
    3 Regionalists
    2 Extreme-right
    1 Others
  26 Uncalled

But in a FPTP pre-election alliances and tactical voting will work very differently.

[jaichind]

So, with nearly 90% of the first round vote counted, RN has fallen to around 31%, the left is at 26.5% and Macron' centrists at around 20%.

There are 37 directly elected legislators for the RN, 9 for the left and 2 for Macron.

You have to add the allies of these parties. As of now:

34.6% RN+allies, 37 elected
28.4% NFP+allies, 10
21.9% Ensemble+allies, 2
10.5% Républicains+allies, 3

It seems it was the non-Ciotti LR plus allies that outperformed the pre-election polls.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If France had FPTP, this would be the result:

297 RN+allies
154 NFP+allies
  69 Ensemble+allies
  25 Républicains+allies
    3 Regionalists
    2 Extreme-right
    1 Others
  26 Uncalled

But in a FPTP pre-election alliances and tactical voting will work very differently.

Yes.
Whether that would play to the advantage of Macronistas is another matter...

[Ancestral Republican]

I love how every time the far-right is ahead in a European election you always have the same handful of American cryptofascist creeps who never otherwise engage in European politics suddenly crawl out of their holes to spout off their rehashed talking points with no relation to the actual issues of the campaign. The audacity of acting like you have anything of any import or meaning to add to the conversation is truly something to behold. This is all the engagement you'll get out of me, though, because I'll be out there engaging in actual electoral analysis.

Even Mongoose said he would support Le Pen if he was French, so its just not right wingers saying it. The fact is mass immigration in Europe has failed and the reason I brought up as a Hindu is due to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest

And the reaction to 10/7 further terrifies me. Thankfully I don't live in France though

Your evocation of an unrelated incident in a different country is not exactly helping anyone think you understand what you're talking about.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If France had FPTP, this would be the result:

297 RN+allies
154 NFP+allies
  69 Ensemble+allies
  25 Républicains+allies
    3 Regionalists
    2 Extreme-right
    1 Others
  26 Uncalled

So the one "extreme-right" is presumably NDA but who's the other one? Also, who is the 1 "others", is that some sort of localist party from the overseas departments?

Also also, does anyone have the breakdown of which parties in NFP won outright and which ones made the runoff and aren't dropping out?

[Upper Canada Tory]

Immigration in France & Europe is a serious issue that needs to be solved, but I find it difficult to sympathize with Le Pen's party, given its history. The attempts to expunge and rebrand the party seem to have been motivated by a desire to do well electorally rather than a principled repudiation of the far-right.

[Logical]

One more quadrangular

Val de Marne 1st
Louffok (LFI-NFP) 31.71%
Berrios (LR) 30.21%
Sabourin (RN) 18.26%
Descrozaille (ENS-incumbent) 17.86%

I don't think anyone will be withdrawing here

[buritobr]

The Cote d'Azur was not always a right-wing stronghold. Mitterrand won it in the 1965 presidential election.



In 1974 too


He still won it in 1981


And in 1988


The map started to become different in 1995


In 2007, the Cote d'Azur and the places near the German border became right-wing strongholds


The last left vs right presidential election map until now


2022 president


Today

[wnwnwn]

Is me or the 2023 Nahel Merzouk protests made National Rally more popular?

[lfromnj]

Is me or the 2023 Nahel Merzouk protests made National Rally more popular?

The other thing it did was also really hurt the left as the main opposition to Macron.

[PeteB]

With nearly 95% counted, the elected members in the first round (without allies) are:

RN - 37
Left - 23
Macron - 2

[lfromnj]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=597934.msg9536852#msg9536852

No one reply on this French electoral thread but we can move the immigration discussion about mass deportations to this thread please.

[Minnesota Mike]

Forgive me asking but does anyone have a link to the actual total popular vote by party? I have seen the estimates but at this point i'm interested in seeing the raw numbers.

[Mike88]

Forgive me asking but does anyone have a link to the actual total popular vote by party? I have seen the estimates but at this point i'm interested in seeing the raw numbers.

Here it is: Link, also this one.

Also, 100% counted:

32.6% RN+allies, 38 elected
30.3% NFP+allies, 33
22.7% Ensemble+allies, 2
10.1% Républicains+allies, 3

The final margin between RN and NFP was much closer than what it was forecast at 8pm.

[axiomsofdominion]

It really seems like the RN was overrated. Still not an ideal result of course.

[Christian Man]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13586385/Shops-boarded-amid-fears-left-wing-riots-far-right-National-Rally-WINS-round-snap-French-election-Humiliated-Macron-drops-Le-Pens-party-power-Olympics-declares-Democracy-spoken.html

[Dan the Roman]

It really seems like the RN was overrated. Still not an ideal result of course.

Well yes and no. The RN got blown out in Paris, but it was never going to win any seats there. So the RN did a bit worse regarding percentage margin, but in terms of seats and distribution it was more efficient.

It would as if polls showed a 49-45 Trump lead, with Trump losing NY 56-43 and California 60-39. On election day he wins only 47.7-46.8, but that is largely because he loses NY 64-34 and California 67-31. And that was because of 90%+ white liberal turnout.

To give a specific example, Paris went from 754,000 votes to a million between 2022 and today. However, the NFP gained 138,000. Ensemble 64,000, and other leftwingers another 6,000, none of which had any impact on RN seat totals.

Yes, he under-performed polls, but it had zero impact on the electoral college which looked a lot like projections for a 49-45 result, and didn't even affect House races.

The seat-by-seat results look much more like what one would expect with a 6-7% RN lead. Perhaps even a greater one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've been working hard on an analysis of the results. Unfortunately this election is a mess of historic proportions and it's 3am, so I'm gonna need to pick it up tomorrow, but I should have a bunch of maps in the coming days.

[xelas81]

Bunch of interesting results

Hérault 6th
RN 41%
Other Far Right 27% (incumbent)
NFP-LFI 21%

Essonne 6th
NFP-PS 34% (incumbent)
Dissent Left  25%
RN 21%
Other 15%

Essonne 8th
NPF-LFI 34%
Sovereignist right-33% (incumbent Nicolas Dupont-Aignan)
LR 27%

Mayotte 2nd (Overseas department overwhelmingly Muslim)
RN 34%
LR 28% (incumbent)

Overseas 8th (Israel, Italy, Turkey)
LR-Lukid 36% (Incumbent Meyer Habib)
ENS-Ren 24%

NFP-LFI candidate had 23% but voter turnout of the seat was 22%