French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I jus don't understand why (beyond wishful thinking) people think that people mad at Macron for being insufficiently left wing economically have shifted to voting for far right parties instead of voting or actual left parties, instead of simply genuinely believing far right narratives and policies.

And how much of Macrons unpopualrity stems from his actual policies, when most leaders of developed countries have comparable approval ratings.

[jaichind]

With the number of candidates LFI will be running it seems that while it is unlikely RN will win a majority RN+LFI will most likely win a negative majority.  This will pretty much mean for anything significant to pass either RN or LFI has to say yes.  Of both oppose something (most likely for different reasons) then it will be no.

[jaichind]

Going through the spreadsheet of candidates, here's the number of candidates for the major blocs per ministry labels:

'Union de la gauche' (NFP): 546
RN: 499 + 63 'Union de l'extrême droite'
Ensemble: 445
Reconquête: 327
LR: 305

There are also 191 DVD, 140 DVG, 215 'divers' (others), 654 'far-left', 23 'far-right', 149 'divers centre', 114 'droite souverainiste' (mostly NDA's DLF crew), 144 ecologists.

Of course anyone who knows about French politics can tell you that the ministry's labels are frustrating but also often quite arbitrary, misleading and sometimes even inaccurate.

I am surprised that RN allowed the Chiotti faction of LR to have 63 seats.  I would think there would be blowback on this within RN as this is missing a chance to expand the RN vote in those 63 seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I jus don't understand why (beyond wishful thinking) people think that people mad at Macron for being insufficiently left wing economically have shifted to voting for far right parties instead of voting or actual left parties, instead of simply genuinely believing far right narratives and policies.

And how much of Macrons unpopualrity stems from his actual policies, when most leaders of developed countries have comparable approval ratings.

Macron is unpopular because the quality of life in France has collapsed, which in turn is (not entirely of course, but to a significant extent) due to the extremist neoliberal policies enacted by Macron over the past 7 years. Whether the average French person actually draws the connection is an open question, but it doesn't change the material reality.

I am surprised that RN allowed the Chiotti faction of LR to have 63 seats.  I would think there would be blowback on this within RN as this is missing a chance to expand the RN vote in those 63 seats.

63 seats is really not that much of a price for the final destruction of the post-Gaullist right as a significant political force, which basically means there's nothing left in the space between RN and Macronismo. Any Ciottist elected under the RN alliance will know they owe their seat to them, and act accordingly. In the end, every dominant party in France ends up drawing satellite parties - that's just how the institutional logic of the Fifth Republic works. We're starting to see what RN's satellites will be.

[lfromnj]

I assume most of the Ciotti seats are in more upscale locations ?

[Agafin]

"Far-right" is the better translation for "extrême droite" I think. No one actually says "extreme right" in English.

Er... what? The term is absolutely used here and generally as a way of distinguishing overt Neo Nazis from everyone else.

Really? I use this website a lot and I can't actually remember the last time someone said "extreme right" (other than this thread) rather than far right, right-wing extremist or just directly say neo-nazis.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meanwhile, despite his own MPs' desperate pleas to please God shut up for the next two weeks, our Glorious Leader jumped into the campaign once again today, going after the Popular Front for... *checks notes* wanting to simplify the procedure for changing your civil gender. A proposal he apparently thinks is "ludicrous". He also said the left was "immigrationist", a word that so far has only ever been used by the far-right.

So yeah, Macron's rhetoric on social issues is now basiclaly indistinguishable from Bardella's. But somehow we should all be supporting him to stop the far-right.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Meanwhile, despite his own MPs' desperate pleas to please God shut up for the next two weeks, our Glorious Leader jumped into the campaign once again today, going after the Popular Front for... *checks notes* wanting to simplify the procedure for changing your civil gender. A proposal he apparently thinks is "ludicrous". He also said the left was "immigrationist", a word that so far has only ever been used by the far-right.

So yeah, Macron's rhetoric on social issues is now basiclaly indistinguishable from Bardella's. But somehow we should all be supporting him to stop the far-right.

No no no, you have to use the terrifyingly expressive word that FBM actually uttered - "ubuesque". I assume most people here will be familiar with Ubu Roi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume most people here will be familiar with Ubu Roi.

Optimistic assumption but yes, that is the word he used.

[Hash]

It's worth noting that Panzergirl (and Panzerdaddy before her) has long tried to expand her political base to include others who may sympathize with the FN/RN but are more reticent to be fully associated and tied to it and its name. As Antonio said, every major political bloc in France has always had satellite parties or movements around them, of people who are close to them or politically in line with them but who for whatever reason want to retain their own personal political identity or are unwilling to be explicitly affiliated and tied to a larger party. There's always been, even before Macron and from both the left and right, an obsession with "candidats d'ouverture" - candidates from other political horizons brought in a sign of political 'openness', signaling some kind of broader base. The RN has been no different.

For her, the precedent is the 'Rassemblement bleu Marine', some sort of alliance she launched in 2012, presented as an alliance of 'patriots' or 'nationals', to gather several candidates who were not from the FN (and didn't want to be explicitly affiliated with it) but supported Panzergirl. The 'RBM' mostly flopped, although it did elect Gilbert Collard (who later joined the FN in 2017 but defected to zemmourismo in 2022), only getting a few relatively minor former members of the major parties and various other names floating in the hard-right galaxy (most notably former Nice mayor Jacques Peyrat, who had quit the FN in the 1990s to join the RPR and be elected mayor of Nice). The only party with some semblance of partisan organization who joined the RBM was the SIEL, a minor party then led by Paul-Marie Coûteaux, a former souverainiste MEP (elected on the Pasqua-Villiers list in 1999 and reelected in alliance with de Villiers' MPF in 2004), who wanted the SIEL to be the umpteenth alliance of souverainistes of both the left and right (the SIEL collapsed a few years later, with Coûteaux falling out of favour with Panzergirl for going too cuckoo and later being couped out of his own party, which eventually drifted out of the RN's sphere of respectability into far-right cuckooland). In a way, the LR-RN alliance serves a similar purpose to the RBM, though with bigger names and higher chances of success: an umbrella under which you have various Panzergirl-sympathetic people who don't feel comfortable being fully associated and labeled with the RN logo, but ultimately will serve her interests and designs while being able to feel better about themselves saying stuff about how it's a 'union of the rights' against the far-left menace and not allying with the far-right.

The LR-RN alliance could also be compared to a similar strategy employed by Panzerdaddy in 1986, who allied with various 'respectable' figures from the conservative right who accepted to campaign on his ideas while keeping up the pretenses of being independent from the FN, an alliance which took the name of... Rassemblement national. These conservative notables came mostly from the CNIP, an old and one-time prominent right-wing party which, since the 1980s, has floated hesitantly between the far-right and the 'mainstream' right, and included Édouard Frédéric-Dupont, a right-wing parliamentarian who served over 40 years in the National Assembly from the 1930s up until 1993.

Le Monde says that only 8 of the LR-RN candidates are dues paying LR members in 2024 (another 8 were dues paying members in 2023) - one of them, which Chiotti has just disowned today for anti-Semitic comments, is the son of Pascal Gannat, who was a Panzerdaddy FN cadre in the 'Pays-de-la-Loire' back in the day...

Besides Chiotti and d'Intorni, the LR-RN candidates include: Thierry Coudert (a former prefect, in Côte-d'Or 3), Michel Hunault (a former UMP/NC deputy defeated in 2012, in Loire-Atlantique 7, which isn't his former seat), Gilles Bourdouleix (mayor of Cholet since 1995 and former three-term UMP/UDI deputy, famous for saying in 2013 that perhaps Hitler hadn't killed enough Roma...), Marie-Hélène Quatreboeufs (LR departmental councillor in Nord), Typhanie Degois (a former macronista deputy, running in her old seat, Savoie-1), Jacques Myard (hard-right former LR deputy, defeated in 2017, running for his old seat in Yvelines against the outgoing macronista president of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet, though he's labeled as DVD by the ministry), Guilhem Carayon (the aforementioned LR Chiotti youth wing ghoul), Brigitte Barèges (hard-right LR mayor of Montauban and former deputy, defeated in 2012, running against Valérie Rabault in Tarn-et-Garonne) and Sébastien Meurant (former LR/zemmourista senator, defeated in 2023).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alright, been poring over the candidates list for way too many hours and here's the map showing candidacies on the left (Outre-Mer excluded because it's a f**king mess):



Errors are likely because I don't hate myself enough to double- and triple-check as I normally do, and because the labels themselves are only ever approximations, but roughly speaking this is the situation. Adding Corsica (which wasn't included in the original agreement but which the left parties turned out to split evenly), we get 230 constituencies for FI, 176 for PS, 93 for EELV and 51 for PCF.

Of those 550 constituencies, the left (excluding far-left outfits like LO or NPA-R) is fully united in 482. Of the 68 Popular Front candidates who are facing some kind of competition on the left, 3 were from PCF, 10 from EELV, 18 from PS, and a full 37 from FI (including 5 constituencies that are FI-FI duels due to Mélenchon's attempted purge).

Another notable factoid, 9 PS-endorsed candidates declined the Popular Front label. This includes Jérôme Guedj, who was vocal enough about it to get a dissident candidacy against him. It also includes 4 lucky ones who were endorsed by the Macron camp.

I am NOT doing a similar map for the right, because again I don't hate myself that much, but if someone wants to take a look, the data is here: https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/19/qui-sont-les-candidats-aux-elections-legislatives-2024-decouvrez-la-liste-circonscription-par-circonscription_6241357_4355770.html

[rob in cal]

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Meanwhile, despite his own MPs' desperate pleas to please God shut up for the next two weeks, our Glorious Leader jumped into the campaign once again today, going after the Popular Front for... *checks notes* wanting to simplify the procedure for changing your civil gender. A proposal he apparently thinks is "ludicrous". He also said the left was "immigrationist", a word that so far has only ever been used by the far-right.

So yeah, Macron's rhetoric on social issues is now basiclaly indistinguishable from Bardella's. But somehow we should all be supporting him to stop the far-right.

Le Pen is probably actually slightly to Macron's left overall.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Meanwhile, despite his own MPs' desperate pleas to please God shut up for the next two weeks, our Glorious Leader jumped into the campaign once again today, going after the Popular Front for... *checks notes* wanting to simplify the procedure for changing your civil gender. A proposal he apparently thinks is "ludicrous". He also said the left was "immigrationist", a word that so far has only ever been used by the far-right.

So yeah, Macron's rhetoric on social issues is now basiclaly indistinguishable from Bardella's. But somehow we should all be supporting him to stop the far-right.

Le Pen is probably actually slightly to Macron's left overall.

Originally I'm sure that was true with economic issues, as the 'Populist Right' had to offer something to attract the working class and 'masses'... But I also just recently read an article about how Bardella agreed to not repeal Macron's labor (and pension?) reforms, which they had originally promised to do, after meeting with French business leaders so honestly it's a bit of a distinction without difference at this point.

[lfromnj]

https://x.com/VLautard/status/1803699066540302775?s=33
NFP losing by 8 against RN but Macron still leading. I stand against the far right for now by still supporting Macron

[Logical]

Ifop poll


RN+UXD : 34%
NFP : 29%
Macronie : 22%
LR+DVD: 6%
Others : 4%
REC : 2%

Turnout : 64%
Under these numbers there would be triangulaires in more than half of the constituencies.

[jaichind]

Turnout : 64%
Under these numbers there would be triangulaires in more than half of the constituencies.

I have to assume that the more 3 way second round races are the better it is for RN

[Agafin]

Turnout : 64%
Under these numbers there would be triangulaires in more than half of the constituencies.

I have to assume that the more 3 way second round races are the better it is for RN

Yeah and unlike previous years, I don't really see candidates dropping put to endorse the stronger anti-RN candidate as they did in 2022 (and before).

[Kamala's side hoe]

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

There was a post in a previous France elections megathread that suggested Brittany’s historically strong Catholicism and/or history industrialization has made it more resistant to the “populist” right, which is generally stronger in less religious, post-industrial areas that haven’t experienced economic revitalization. Too lazy to find it atm.

[Epaminondas]

REN seems to be prepared to come 3rd in almost every triangular contest, yet refusing to drop out due to false equivalences between Left and Extreme Right in order to help the RN and hope the ensuing chaos keeps their voters from straying.

However on these numbers, I can't see how they survive extinction in 2027 when they will be locked out of the second round and roundly loathed by 70% of the population.

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

There was a post in a previous France elections megathread that suggested Brittany’s historically strong Catholicism and/or history industrialization has made it more resistant to the “populist” right, which is generally stronger in less religious, post-industrial areas that haven’t experienced economic revitalization. Too lazy to find it atm.

True for Catholic tradition, not to mention a very large civil service sector, and Brittany remains the second wealthiest province by income after Alsace if memory serves.
Ironic that this is where the Le Pen family traces its roots.

[DL]

Turnout : 64%
Under these numbers there would be triangulaires in more than half of the constituencies.

I have to assume that the more 3 way second round races are the better it is for RN

Yeah and unlike previous years, I don't really see candidates dropping put to endorse the stronger anti-RN candidate as they did in 2022 (and before).

Wouldn't it depend a bit on who the top two candidates were? If the top two are from RN and a reasonable PS type - maybe the third place Ensemble candidate drops out - could be different if its a crackpot from LFI in the top 2.

One thing I don't understand is why they allow these "triangulaires" at all? Why not treat the legislative elections like the Presidential elections and just drop everyone except the top 2 candidates?

[jaichind]

REN seems to be prepared to come 3rd in almost every triangular contest, yet refusing to drop out due to false equivalences between Left and Extreme Right in order to help the RN and hope the ensuing chaos keeps their voters from straying.

However on these numbers, I can't see how they survive extinction in 2027 when they will be locked out of the second round and roundly loathed by 70% of the population.

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

There was a post in a previous France elections megathread that suggested Brittany’s historically strong Catholicism and/or history industrialization has made it more resistant to the “populist” right, which is generally stronger in less religious, post-industrial areas that haven’t experienced economic revitalization. Too lazy to find it atm.

True for Catholic tradition, not to mention a very large civil service sector, and Brittany remains the second wealthiest province by income after Alsace if memory serves.
Ironic that this is where the Le Pen family traces its roots.

I think they are betting on a bunch of RN vs LFI vs ENS second round races and then asking for PS Green and LRA voters to vote for them to stop both RN and LFI

[Epaminondas]

One thing I don't understand is why they allow these "triangulaires" at all? Why not treat the legislative elections like the Presidential elections and just drop everyone except the top 2 candidates?

I think it was set up by Giscard d'Estaing in 1976 as a sop to quell demands for proportional representation in the Assembly, which did not appeal to him. It's not quite as awful as 2-round FPTP, but still pretty bad absent any cordon sanitaire.

Ranked ballot would help to sanitize politics in France.

[jaichind]

Harris interactive poll

[Antonio the Sixth]

The thing I'm most curious about is turnout. 64% would be the highest turnout since 2002, which would be a good sign for democracy if nothing else, but would also significantly lower the threshold for runoff qualification as noted. At that level, it would take about 20% of the valid votes to qualify, vs over 25% last time.

However, do French pollsters have a good track record with gauging turnout? In other countries it's notoriously the hardest thing to poll. Have pollsters tried to estimate turnout in legislative elections before, and how did that go?