French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

Yup, that was the case when DeGaulle resigned in 1969 and his successor Pompidou died in office in 1974.

So does it reset the presidential term as well?

History would suggest yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Either way, it's not happening, so we might want to pay attention to the actual, major developments that are in fact happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Either way, it's not happening, so we might want to pay attention to the actual, major developments that are in fact happening.

And are bloody huge in themselves.

[DL]

The idea that Macron would resign is ludicrous. Even if the RN won a majority…history has shown that these cohabitation periods end in years not for the party of the President but for the party of the PM. Look at how in 1988 Mitterrand was reelected thanks to two years of Chirac being PM and becoming very unpopular

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/legislatives-anticipees-la-dissolution-satisfait-une-majorite-des-francais-selon-un-sondage-20240611

The French are by a large majority of 66% “satisfied” with the dissolution of the National Assembly

Move is most popular among RN supporters, 86% are satisfied. LFI supporters are relatively the least satisfied; 50% are so inclined.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Either way, it's not happening, so we might want to pay attention to the actual, major developments that are in fact happening.

And are bloody huge in themselves.

Yeah, you'd think the final implosion of the Gaullist political tradition in France (for however artificial a construct it always was) would be the subject of more commentary on this forum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Either way, it's not happening, so we might want to pay attention to the actual, major developments that are in fact happening.

And are bloody huge in themselves.

Yeah, you'd think the final implosion of the Gaullist political tradition in France (for however artificial a construct it always was) would be the subject of more commentary on this forum.

A rather sad, shabby, farcical end a few days after the 80th anniversary of the beginning of the liberation of France.

[Hash]

Chiotti has always had very strong fascist characteristics, so this isn't surprising from him, but he seems to have taken this decision on his own without consulting anyone - je n'en ai discuté avec personne, mais c'est la position de mon parti

It's obvious that Chiotti badly miscalculated this and made a huge strategic blunder. He justified his idea in very crass, cynical and opportunist terms - he openly said that LR on its own is too weak, and that he was doing this to save LR's 60ish deputies by offering them a safe reelection in alliance with the RN and to preserve LR's group in the legislature. I'm not even sure if most LR deputies need an alliance with the RN to save their seats - a fair amount are in seats where the RN was not far behind them in 2022, but others are pretty well-rooted incumbents and in general, in 2022, LR enjoyed quite good vote transfers from others (mostly macronismo) in runoffs opposing them to the RN. It's also not at all clear that LR voters want this - Ipsos' poll on the day of the EP elections showed that about 35-40% of LR's electorate actually likes Macron and 76% supported a 'government coalition with the presidential majority and a LR prime minister' (granted, a sizable chunk of LR's electorate does show signs of flirtation with the RN or at least some sympathy for it/its ideas).

Instead of waiting for the perhaps inevitable implosion of the party until after the elections and a potential RN plurality 'hung parliament', Chiotti inexplicably decided to precipitate it for no good reason.

So far the only public endorsements of Chiotti's idea have been from the head of the LR youth wing (a guy named Guilhem Caraymon who looks exactly like you imagine him to be), one MEP-elect (Céline Imart) and one deputy (Christelle D'Intorni, who is a Chiotti loyalist from Alpes-Maritimes who defeated Marine Brenier in 2022). The quasi-entirety of the party bigwigs have completely disowned him and are openly calling for him to resign before they knife him in public - including people like Retailleau and Wauquiez who are pretty right-wing themselves.

Yeah, you'd think the final implosion of the Gaullist political tradition in France (for however artificial a construct it always was) would be the subject of more commentary on this forum.

At the same time, we shouldn't forget that there's a long history of official or discreet alliances between the 'Gaullist right' and the FN/RN, including the infamous Dreux by-election in 1983 or the regional presidents in the 1990s who accepted the FN's votes to be elected. But, yes, this - a 'Gaullist' party leader proposing a nationwide alliance with the RN - is definitely the final death of the Gaullist tradition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it really is telling that even someone like Wauquiez, who already governs his region like a far-right culture warrior in the DeSantis mold, is dumping Ciotti on this. There's still a gulf between being ideologically aligned with RN (on domestic issues) and actually crossing the taboo of an alliance with them. In some way Ciotti is the more honest actor here, but being a honest fascist is hardly cause for celebration.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, between this and several macronistas actively sh*tting on Macron at the moment and begging him not to campaign, it weirdly feels like the left is the more unified political faction at the moment. Of course that might change, and I'm sure tempers will flare up as the horse-trading for divvying up constituencies gets going, but right now that's kinda surreal.

[Hash]

Alpes-Maritimes LR deputy Michèle Tabarot (very right-wing, daughter of an OAS activist) co-signed a column in Le Figaro opposing Chiotti's idea, so he basically has absolutely no one backing him on this, not even hard-right deputies in his own department.

Another master tactician.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Les Republicans just announced they would accept a coalition deal with RN

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1800485883398992317

[Oryxslayer]

Les Republicans just announced they would accept a coalition deal with RN

This has been discussed for a while. IYMI, since then Ciotti has been dragged through metaphorical manure by everyone in the party, even his former allies, for unilaterally deciding to state this. At this point it's more likely he get's binned, or hypothetically things split between his few and the many closer to REM, then it actually happens.

[Logical]

Given the polarization into three poles/fronts, and likely higher turnout we might be seeing a record number of triangulaires this year.

[lfromnj]

I saw on FT that Macron was worried about budget cuts he had to make.

[Arson Plus]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

[Hash]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

They can very easily run as 'independents' - anyone who has studied French politics knows the ubiquity of 'divers droite', 'divers gauche' candidates. Some have already indicated that they'll do so: Vincent Descoeur, LR deputy in Cantal, has quit the party and will run on his own, and the other LR deputy in Cantal, Jean-Yves Bony, has said he'll leave the party if Ciotti is still president in 48 hours, and that he's already removed LR logos from his posters and campaign lit.

I'll spare people the legalese about party affiliation for these elections but parties have very little time to finalize their list of candidates - until Sunday evening at the absolute latest (and then, to later obtain party financing, parties must submit to the interior ministry the list of candidates they have officially nominated). With LR's current sh*)tshow, I'm not sure how the party commission in charge of nominations will manage to work.

I think it's important to point out that the bulk of the LR grandees who have come out guns blazing against Ciotti's unilateral alliance aren't 'closer to Macron' or looking to ally with Macron - if you read their statements, many repeat the party's old position against the 'failed government' and against the 'extremes' (left and right). Those right-wingers who want to ally with or work with Macron have already left or been kicked out, although you still have a few deputies who may be more 'constructive' and open to working with the government, although I'm not sure if any of them at this point would seek reelection under macronista colours (it wouldn't be advisable). Macronismo unilaterally and strategically deciding not to field candidates against certain people they judge close to them is another matter - they've done that in 2017 and 2022, and will do so again - and obviously isn't quite the same as that person welcoming that support and publicizing it.

[President Johnson]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

I wonder whether LR could actually break apart over this dispute? They're already de facto a minority party. The party's right-wing could just join RN while the moderates switch to Macron's camp.

[KaiserDave]

Spreading rumors of his resignation if his bloc performs poorly seems to be an obvious electoral strategy by Macron to get his voters out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

I wonder whether LR could actually break apart over this dispute? They're already de facto a minority party. The party's right-wing could just join RN while the moderates switch to Macron's camp.

That already seems to be happening, given the reactions to Ciotti's announcements. In theory the party hasn't broken apart yet, but if half of its MPs get elected thanks to RN support and the other half get elected thanks to Macronista support, I have no idea how they could possibly survive that. If your party's MPs belong to different electoral coalitions, you don't have a party.

Spreading rumors of his resignation if his bloc performs poorly seems to be an obvious electoral strategy by Macron to get his voters out.

He's doing the opposite, though. He explicitly denied he would resign.

[KaiserDave]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

I wonder whether LR could actually break apart over this dispute? They're already de facto a minority party. The party's right-wing could just join RN while the moderates switch to Macron's camp.

That already seems to be happening, given the reactions to Ciotti's announcements. In theory the party hasn't broken apart yet, but if half of its MPs get elected thanks to RN support and the other half get elected thanks to Macronista support, I have no idea how they could possibly survive that. If your party's MPs belong to different electoral coalitions, you don't have a party.

Spreading rumors of his resignation if his bloc performs poorly seems to be an obvious electoral strategy by Macron to get his voters out.

He's doing the opposite, though. He explicitly denied he would resign.

I didn’t know that, maybe he should consider doing it anyway.

[The Mikado]

What will happen to the MPs from LR who don’t want to be in an alliance with RN? Will they run as independents or will they join/create a party in the Macron bloc?

I wonder whether LR could actually break apart over this dispute? They're already de facto a minority party. The party's right-wing could just join RN while the moderates switch to Macron's camp.

That already seems to be happening, given the reactions to Ciotti's announcements. In theory the party hasn't broken apart yet, but if half of its MPs get elected thanks to RN support and the other half get elected thanks to Macronista support, I have no idea how they could possibly survive that. If your party's MPs belong to different electoral coalitions, you don't have a party.

This makes a ton of sense. As Macron's party drifts right and RN becomes a more domesticated version of far right LRs are squeezed on both fronts and it becomes harder and harder to justify a need for that party's existence.

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t LR still have a relatively strong presence in the far weaker Senate ?

[oldtimer]

The idea that Macron would resign is ludicrous. Even if the RN won a majority…history has shown that these cohabitation periods end in years not for the party of the President but for the party of the PM. Look at how in 1988 Mitterrand was reelected thanks to two years of Chirac being PM and becoming very unpopular

That didn't stop the Socialists from losing the 1995 Presidential election.

[Chickpeas]

Perhaps some in LR will now be tempted to join Horizons.