French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Zanas]

01-01   RN
01-02   Modem
01-03   RE
01-04   RN
01-05   RN
02-01   RN
02-02   RN
02-03   RN
02-04   RN
02-05   RN
03-01   PCF
03-02   RN
03-03   LR
04-01   RN
04-02   FI
05-01   PS
05-02   PS
06-01   RN
06-02   RN
06-03   RN
06-04   RN
06-05   RN
06-06   RN
06-07   RN
06-08   RN
06-09   RN
07-01   PS
07-02   PS
07-03   LR
08-01   RN
08-02   RN
08-03   Liot
09-01   PS
09-02   PS
10-01   RN
10-02   RN
10-03   RN
11-01   RN
11-02   RN
11-03   RN
12-01   RE
12-02   FI
12-03   RE
13-01   RN
13-02   RN
13-03   RN
13-04   FI
13-05   FI
13-06   RN
13-07   FI
13-08   RN
13-09   RN
13-10   RN
13-11   RN
13-12   RN
13-13   RN
13-14   RN
13-15   RN
13-16   RN
14-01   LR
14-02   PS
14-03   Hor
14-04   Modem
14-05   Hor
14-06   RE
15-01   LR
15-02   LR
16-01   Hor
16-02   RE
16-03   RN
17-01   RE
17-02   EELV
17-03   PS
17-04   RN
17-05   Hor
18-01   RE
18-02   RN
18-03   RN
19-01   PS
19-02   LR
2A-01   Hor
2A-02   Liot
2B-01   Liot
2B-02   DVD
21-01   RE
21-02   RN
21-03   PS
21-04   RN
21-05   RN
22-01   Modem
22-02   RE
22-03   LR
22-04   FI
22-05   RE
23-01   RN
24-01   RN
24-02   RN
24-03   PS
24-04   EELV
25-01   RN
25-02   EELV
25-03   RN
25-04   RN
25-05   LR
26-01   PS
26-02   RN
26-03   LR
26-04   RN
27-01   RN
27-02   RN
27-03   RN
27-04   PS
27-05   RN
28-01   RE
28-02   LR
28-03   Liot
28-04   Modem
29-01   RE
29-02   FI
29-03   RE
29-04   RE
29-05   RE
29-06   PS
29-07   RE
29-08   Modem
30-01   RN
30-02   RN
30-03   RN
30-04   RN
30-05   RN
30-06   RN
31-01   FI
31-02   FI
31-03   FI
31-04   FI
31-05   Hor
31-06   PS
31-07   FI
31-08   PS
31-09   EELV
31-10   PS
32-01   RE
32-02   PS
33-01   RE
33-02   EELV
33-03   FI
33-04   PS
33-05   RN
33-06   PS
33-07   PS
33-08   RE
33-09   Modem
33-10   RN
33-11   RN
33-12   RN
34-01   EELV
34-02   FI
34-03   PS
34-04   RN
34-05   RN
34-06   RN
34-07   RN
34-08   RN
34-09   RN
35-01   FI
35-02   EELV
35-03   PS
35-04   FI
35-05   RE
35-06   Hor
35-07   LR
35-08   PS
36-01   Hor
36-02   RN
37-01   EELV
37-02   RE
37-03   Hor
37-04   PS
37-05   Modem
38-01   FI
38-02   EELV
38-03   FI
38-04   PS
38-05   EELV
38-06   RN
38-07   LR
38-08   RN
38-09   FI
38-10   RN
39-01   RE
39-02   LR
39-03   LR
40-01   Modem
40-02   RE
40-03   PS
41-01   Modem
41-02   RN
41-03   RN
42-01   PS
42-02   FI
42-03   Modem
42-04   LR
42-05   LR
42-06   LR
43-01   LR
43-02   LR
44-01   PS
44-02   FI
44-03   FI
44-04   EELV
44-05   PS
44-06   RN
44-07   Modem
44-08   FI
44-09   Hor
44-10   RN
45-01   RE
45-02   EELV
45-03   RN
45-04   RN
45-05   RN
45-06   Modem
46-01   LR
46-02   PS
47-01   RN
47-02   RN
47-03   RN
48-01   PS
49-01   Hor
49-02   RE
49-03   LR
49-04   RE
49-05   RE
49-06   RE
49-07   Modem
50-01   LR
50-02   RE
50-03   RE
50-04   PS
51-01   Hor
51-02   RE
51-03   RN
51-04   RN
51-05   RN
52-01   RN
52-02   RN
53-01   PS
53-02   Modem
53-03   RE
54-01   PS
54-02   PS
54-03   RN
54-04   RN
54-05   RN
54-06   RN
55-01   RN
55-02   RN
56-01   Hor
56-02   Modem
56-03   RE
56-04   LR
56-05   EELV
56-06   RE
57-01   RN
57-02   RE
57-03   LR
57-04   RN
57-05   RN
57-06   RN
57-07   RN
57-08   RN
57-09   Hor
58-01   Modem
58-02   RN
59-01   FI
59-02   FI
59-03   RN
59-04   RE
59-05   LR
59-06   RE
59-07   Hor
59-08   FI
59-09   RE
59-10   RE
59-11   PS
59-12   RN
59-13   PS
59-14   RN
59-15   RN
59-16   RN
59-17   RN
59-18   RN
59-19   RN
59-20   RN
59-21   RN
60-01   RN
60-02   RN
60-03   RN
60-04   RE
60-05   RN
60-06   RN
60-07   RN
61-01   PS
61-02   LR
61-03   LR
62-01   RN
62-02   RN
62-03   RN
62-04   RN
62-05   RN
62-06   RN
62-07   RN
62-08   RN
62-09   RN
62-10   RN
62-11   RN
62-12   RN
63-01   FI
63-02   PS
63-03   EELV
63-04   Modem
63-05   PCF
64-01   Modem
64-02   Modem
64-03   RE
64-04   PS
64-05   PS
64-06   RE
65-01   FI
65-02   PS
66-01   RN
66-02   RN
66-03   RN
66-04   RN
67-01   EELV
67-02   FI
67-03   PS
67-04   RE
67-05   RE
67-06   Modem
67-07   LR
67-08   RN
67-09   Hor
68-01   RE
68-02   Modem
68-03   Hor
68-04   RN
68-05   RE
68-06   RN
69-01   FI
69-02   EELV
69-03   EELV
69-04   PS
69-05   Modem
69-06   FI
69-07   FI
69-08   RN
69-09   LR
69-10   RE
69-11   RE
69-12   Modem
69-13   RN
69-14   FI
70-01   RN
70-02   RN
71-01   RE
71-02   LR
71-03   RN
71-04   RN
71-05   RN
72-01   RE
72-02   PS
72-03   RN
72-04   RN
72-05   RE
73-01   Modem
73-02   LR
73-03   LR
73-04   FI
74-01   RE
74-02   RE
74-03   LR
74-04   LR
74-05   Hor
74-06   RE
75-01   RE
75-02   RE
75-03   EELV
75-04   RE
75-05   EELV
75-06   FI
75-07   PS
75-08   EELV
75-09   EELV
75-10   FI
75-11   PS
75-12   RE
75-13   RE
75-14   RE
75-15   FI
75-16   FI
75-17   FI
75-18   FI
76-01   PS
76-02   RE
76-03   PCF
76-04   RN
76-05   PS
76-06   RN
76-07   Hor
76-08   PCF
76-09   RN
76-10   RN
77-01   RN
77-02   Hor
77-03   LR
77-04   RN
77-05   RN
77-06   RN
77-07   RN
77-08   EELV
77-09   PS
77-10   FI
77-11   PS
78-01   RE
78-02   Modem
78-03   RE
78-04   RE
78-05   RE
78-06   RE
78-07   RN
78-08   EELV
78-09   RN
78-10   RE
78-11   FI
78-12   RE
79-01   RE
79-02   EELV
79-03   RE
80-01   FI
80-02   RN
80-03   RN
80-04   RN
80-05   RN
81-01   Hor
81-02   FI
81-03   RN
82-01   RN
82-02   RN
83-01   RN
83-02   RN
83-03   RN
83-04   RN
83-05   RN
83-06   RN
83-07   RN
83-08   RN
84-01   RN
84-02   RN
84-03   RN
84-04   RN
84-05   RN
85-01   Modem
85-02   Hor
85-03   RE
85-04   LR
85-05   Hor
86-01   EELV
86-02   RE
86-03   Modem
86-04   Modem
87-01   FI
87-02   PS
87-03   FI
88-01   LR
88-02   RN
88-03   RE
88-04   RN
89-01   RN
89-02   RN
89-03   RN
90-01   RN
90-02   RN
91-01   FI
91-02   RN
91-03   RN
91-04   RE
91-05   EELV
91-06   PS
91-07   FI
91-08   RN
91-09   EELV
91-10   FI
92-01   PCF
92-02   LR
92-03   LR
92-04   EELV
92-05   RE
92-06   RE
92-07   RE
92-08   RE
92-09   RE
92-10   RE
92-11   FI
92-12   LR
92-13   RE
93-01   FI
93-02   PCF
93-03   FI
93-04   PCF
93-05   FI
93-06   FI
93-07   FI
93-08   PS
93-09   FI
93-10   FI
93-11   FI
93-12   FI
94-01   LR
94-02   FI
94-03   FI
94-04   Modem
94-05   RE
94-06   EELV
94-07   LR
94-08   LR
94-09   PS
94-10   FI
94-11   EELV
95-01   RN
95-02   FI
95-03   PCF
95-04   Hor
95-05   FI
95-06   FI
95-07   PS
95-08   FI
95-09   FI
95-10   FI
97-101   Liot
97-102   PS
97-103   Liot
97-104   PS
97-201   PCF
97-202   PCF
97-203   PS
97-204   FI
97-301   PCF
97-302   PCF
97-401   PS
97-402   PCF
97-403   RN
97-404   PCF
97-405   FI
97-406   PCF
97-407   FI
97-5   Liot
97-601   Liot
97-602   LR
98-601   RE
98-701   RE
98-702   LR
98-703   DVD
98-801   RE
98-802   PCF
98-StBarth   Modem
99-01   RE
99-02   RE
99-03   RE
99-04   RE
99-05   DVC
99-06   RE
99-07   Modem
99-08   LR
99-09   EELV
99-10   RE
99-11   RE

[Zinneke]

It's real rich to see somebody claim France, goodam France is a victim of "economic colonialism". Words have actual meanings, colonialism isn't "foreign consumer good I don't like".

You're right I apologise, the word should not be used for what we're describing here. The word "Cocacolaisation" is probably more apt, hence the wiki article, and while France has it's own share of corporate gangsters, the French Left's view that Anglo-Saxon culture is designed to encroach and dominate in order to create a series of consumerist automatons is not far off the truth....every European city is slowly turning into a clone of the other, with the same 4-5 fast food joints, same museums now popping up designed for instagrammers, same shops etc. the only difference is the landmarks. Because that's what the multinational globalist class want to turn Europe into, a theme park, a giant Disneyland for Americans and Chinese people to explore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, this forum hasn't improved a bit in the last years, has it?

Anyway, here's my constituency-by-constituency prediction, because I spent several nights making it to curb my anxiety and you should as well have a look at it and see what you think.

Totals are :
RN 194
NFP 179 (LFI 71 PS 61 LE-EELV 31 PCF-GDR 16)
ENS 148 (REN 92 Modem 31 Horizons 24 DVC 1)
LR 46 (the non-Ciottist ones, I bunched the LR-RN into RN)
LIOT 8
DVD 2

Result is an ungovernable clusterfukc and another dissolution in a year's time. Every constituency's predicted result in the following posts.

Your prediction is actually quite a bit less ungovernable than the consensus, which would have an absolute majority for RN+LFI and thus make any conceivable majority impossible. Some kind of government that doesn't get NCMed by a grand coalition ranging from LR to PS would be an awkward arrangement but not totally inconceivable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So now that the official candidate lists are out it took me another whole damn day to re-check everything. There were in fact more dropouts than reported by Le Monde yesterday. 3 of those were from the Left to stop the Far-right (2 dropping out in favor of Macronists, 1 in favor of the Right). One was a far-rightist dropping out to support a Macronista against the Left. And finally, most strangely, one from the Right dropped out of the lone Center-Right-XR triangular, making it just Center-XR (despite it being Western Paris where RN cannot win).

In addition, the Macronista in that quadrangular in Rhône somehow dropped back IN, meaning he'll be on the ballot even though he insists he won't campaign. No idea if this guy is a clown or if there was some administrative mixup.

Anyway, at long last, here's the official dropout list:


Triangular -> Duel: 219
Left-Left-Center -> Left-Center: 1
Left-Center-Center -> Left-Center: 1
Left-Center-XR -> Left-Center: 2

Left-Right-XR -> Left-Right: 1

Left-Left-XR -> Left-XR: 3
Left-Center-XR -> Left-XR: 79
Left-Right-XR -> Left-XR: 2

Left-Center-Right -> Center-Right: 1

Left-Center-XR -> Center-XR: 100
Center-Right-XR -> Center-XR: 1

Left-Right-XR -> Right-XR: 27

Right-XR-Div -> Right-Div: 1


Quadrangular -> Triangular: 2
Left-Center-Right-XR -> Left-Right-XR: 2


Quadrangular -> Duel: 1
Left-Left-Center-XR -> Center-XR: 1


Bloc dropouts: 217
Left: 129
Center: 81
Right: 3
Far-right: 4

Bloc consolidations: 5
Left: 4
Center: 1


Consolidations against the Far-Right: 215
Left dropping out: 128 (101 in the Center's favor, 27 in the Right's favor)
Center dropping out: 81 (79 in the Left's favor, 2 ambiguous)
Right dropping out: 3 (2 in the Left's favor, 1 in the Center's favor)
Intra-left consolidations: 3

Other dropouts: 7
Far-Right dropping out: 4 (3 against the Left, 1 against others)
Left dropping out: 1 (against the Right)
Intra-left consolidation: 1
Intra-center consolidation: 1


The official runoff configurations map will be ready tomorrow.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It's no wonder the RN is so strong if this is what people associate the left (mostly LFI) with.

Oh, the French left has a long and proud tradition (going back to the Jacobins, really) of ignoring economic issues in favour of obsessive conspiratorial bullshxt you'd expect from the far right in any normal country. Shades of PCF organizing lynch mobs against immigrants in Vitry or campaigning on the extremely important issue of banning Coca-Cola.

Banning Coca-Cola is a poor example. Coca -Cola is a pretty good example of the economic colonialism that Europe subjects itself to via Macronista-style liberal policies. See also FBM's totall submission to the American GAFAs instead of actually regulating against them properly.

If you were a real pro-EU person you'd be regulating Coca-Cola out of existence and letting Frtiz Cola take over, Estrella. I see like your hero Sikorski you are an agent of foreign interests.

You have an unhealthy obsession with Radosław Sikorski.

[Zinneke]

It's no wonder the RN is so strong if this is what people associate the left (mostly LFI) with.

Oh, the French left has a long and proud tradition (going back to the Jacobins, really) of ignoring economic issues in favour of obsessive conspiratorial bullshxt you'd expect from the far right in any normal country. Shades of PCF organizing lynch mobs against immigrants in Vitry or campaigning on the extremely important issue of banning Coca-Cola.

Banning Coca-Cola is a poor example. Coca -Cola is a pretty good example of the economic colonialism that Europe subjects itself to via Macronista-style liberal policies. See also FBM's totall submission to the American GAFAs instead of actually regulating against them properly.

If you were a real pro-EU person you'd be regulating Coca-Cola out of existence and letting Frtiz Cola take over, Estrella. I see like your hero Sikorski you are an agent of foreign interests.

You have an unhealthy obsession with Radosław Sikorski.

You have an unhealthy obsession with Belgium

[Zinneke]

To all the pro-Likudnik brown nosers of RN on this thread, this is Bardella in 2017 boasting about petitioning for a Palestinian state next to PCF activists in 2017.




Also, Rufin has finally left LFI and stuck the boot into Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his autocratic selfish manners.

https://www.marianne.net/politique/melenchon/ma-place-ne-sera-pas-dans-le-groupe-lfi-ruffin-acte-son-depart-du-parti-de-melenchon

I guess the usual Strasserite apologists will say "now isn't the time, we need to focus on beating the far right" without realising that you cannot beat the far right in a two turn electoral system when you have a deeply unpopular Strasserite in your ranks

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, Ruffin is in a constituency where he needs every vote he can get to survive right now. That includes centrist voters who think Mélenchon is the devil, but also FI loyalists who think he can do no wrong. I have no idea how you square that circle (and this really is a problem for the whole French left) but personally if I was in his shoes I would have kept highlighting my differences with Mélenchon without completely breaking with him until Sunday. Maybe that's too cynical of me though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, here we are at long last. The number of triangulars and quadrangulars dropped by over 70% to go from 311 to 91 (which is still a record in the modern era). In the process, we lost 6 whole categories of races (though we gained a new type of duel with the Right vs Div one in Corsica). So, overall, 19 types of races. Hopefully this makes the map a bit more legible.



Elected: 73
Left: 32
Center: 1
Right: 1
Far-right: 39

Duels: 386
Left vs Left: 4
Left vs Center: 31
Left vs Right: 5
Left vs Far-right: 150
Center vs Right: 2
Center vs Far-right: 138
Right vs Far-right: 52
Right vs Other: 1
Far-right vs Other: 3

Triangulars: 89
Left-Center-Right: 1
Left-Center-XR: 73
Left-Right-XR: 13
Left-XR-XR: 1
Left-XR-Other: 1

Quadrangulars: 2
Left-Center-Right-XR: 2


And by political families:
Left: 36 Elected (including the 4 intra-left runoffs), 277 Running, 237 Out
Center: 1 Elected, 247 Running, 302 Out
Right: 1 Elected, 76 Running, 473 Out
Far-Right: 39 Elected, 433 Running, 78 Out

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AlertesInfos/status/1808879950813917374

[DL]

I hate to say it but whatever the outcome of the election the RN wins:

If they win a majority then they win and they take power and start implementing their ludicrous agenda. The only downside is that they would likely disappoint their supporters and become unpopular and be stuck with a record to defend in 2027.

If they fall short of a majority then someone has to form a government that spans everything from LFI to Macronists - and impossible task. The Assembly was already ungovernable when the Macron block was just short of a majority and all they needed was to peel off some votes from LR or some some of the more moderate left parties. So LePen can sit back and watch the chaos unfold and in 2027 she can say "its me or chaos"

[jaichind]

I hate to say it but whatever the outcome of the election the RN wins:

If they win a majority then they win and they take power and start implementing their ludicrous agenda. The only downside is that they would likely disappoint their supporters and become unpopular and be stuck with a record to defend in 2027.

If they fall short of a majority then someone has to form a government that spans everything from LFI to Macronists - and impossible task. The Assembly was already ungovernable when the Macron block was just short of a majority and all they needed was to peel off some votes from LR or some some of the more moderate left parties. So LePen can sit back and watch the chaos unfold and in 2027 she can say "its me or chaos"

I think for RN to win if it does not win a majority then it has to be RN bloc + LFI to cross 289.  Then they can sit back and watch NFP and ENS try to form a government with LR and LFI in it.  It also means the next election LFI can no longer win the anti-incumbancy anti-status quo vote.

[DL]

I wonder whether in a scenario where RN+LFI have just over a majority, we might see some of the saner LFI deputies defect to allow for the formation of a coalition that excludes RN and LFI

[Epaminondas]

Queer situation in Rhone 8 where the Macronist Dominique Despras filed for the second round at 5pm Tuesday, then 2 hours later announced he was withdrawing. However, since this was after the 6pm deadline, he is officially a candidate, thus he will refuse to provide ballots with his name.

[Antonio the Sixth]

snip

Any chance you could put it in map form? It's hard to make sense of a rough list especially given the bizarre numbering system.

I still want to make my own rough prediction map but the timing is gonna be short as I need to compile first round data first. No promise but I'm hoping to have it by Saturday.

[Epaminondas]

I hate to say it but whatever the outcome of the election the RN wins:

If they win a majority then they win and they take power and start implementing their ludicrous agenda. The only downside is that they would likely disappoint their supporters and become unpopular and be stuck with a record to defend in 2027.

If they fall short of a majority then someone has to form a government that spans everything from LFI to Macronists - and impossible task. The Assembly was already ungovernable when the Macron block was just short of a majority and all they needed was to peel off some votes from LR or some some of the more moderate left parties. So LePen can sit back and watch the chaos unfold and in 2027 she can say "its me or chaos"

This is just lazy punditry, you can easily spin this on its head and say either way RN loses:
- if they win a bare majority then Macron's opposition and infighting will lead to very little being achieved and them losing their status as disruptors
- if they fall short despite everything going their way this time, after defeats in 2017 and 2022, they will no longer be seen as viable by the time 2027 comes around, after LR tacks to anti-immigration and more fringe parties appear.

[Zinneke]

Exactly, the RN parliamentary group won't be very disciplined on evidence, since it has all sorts of different views especially on economic issues. Libertarians and protectionist/dirigistes will fight with each other. Bardella needs a huge majority to be in any way effective which will not happen.

If they lose but still have a plurality people who want some sort of more sane right-populist government, Meloni-style, will wonder why they aren't at least trying to form some sort of government.

It could go either way and I imagine part of Macron's calculation is a co-habitation with RN tiny majority makes him look like the adult in the room.

[Epaminondas]

I count 7 seats where the lack of Ens-NFP cooperation is likely to gift the win to the RN. How much will this matter?

- Alpes-Maritimes 1
- Bouches du Rhones 14
- Finistère 2
- Seine et Marne 1
- Somme 2
- Haute-Vienne 3
- Val d'Oise 1


In Maine et Loire 5, the RN candidate faked a withdrawal before registering at the last second to trick his way into a triangular, but the third LFI candidate prevented this by withdrawing her ballots.

[Hash]

I was out of town for the first round, but here are my belated impressions for anyone interested.

- While the overall national vote share was largely in line with expectations, it's kind of interesting how the actual results in each seats yielded a fair amount of surprises - I guess it makes sense given that this is very much uncharted territory, with the RN breaking all sorts of records.

- The relatively mediocre, lacklustre performance of several incumbents, who were seen as having a strong personal vote and said to be well rooted locally, was quite interesting. Local factors still played a very important role in the results, but this was clearly a more nationalized election than in the past, because of the very high turnout. The higher turnout likely brought out low propensity occasional voters -- the type of voters who have only voted in presidential elections since 2017 -- who hadn't voted in legislative elections in the past, and who therefore care less about local incumbency and local favourites, and vote based on national issues. Whereas in low turnout elections like 2022 a lot of those who bothered voting are more aware of their constituency's local favourites and political idiosyncrasies.

- As an example of a popular local candidate doing surprisingly poorly: André Chassaigne, the PCF deputy for Puy-de-Dôme 5 since 2002 who had clearly built a very strong popular vote, fell from 49% to 37.8% and ended up less than one point ahead of the RN (which had been 30 points behind him in 2022). He should still win in the runoff, but clearly not by the 38 point majority he won by in 2022. For another, even more famous example, François Ruffin, whose Somme constituency has been given very big numbers to the RN for a while now (although it was originally gerrymandered in 2010 as a left-wing vote dump seat of sorts), is trailing the RN by about 7% and his vote fell from 40% to 34% while the RN vote increased from 22.6% to 40.7% since 2022.

- The nationalization of the vote can be seen in the RN doing quite well in areas where it has been doing well nationally, in 2022 and 2024 (EP), but had remained weaker in legislative elections. This in spite of very poor candidate quality (not that it has ever mattered much for the FN/RN), so you have a crazy lady who staged an armed hostage taking in the 90s at a local city hall getting 31% in Mayenne-3. You can also see this with the RN breaking through in Corsica (where it had been strong in recent national elections but still lagged behind in legislative elections) or in more overseas territories, like Mayotte and Réunion.

- As a result of the above, a lot of incumbents on the left (primarily) and the right who were swimming against the current in constituencies with a very high far-right vote in national elections seeing their luck run out - Aisne's 3rd constituency, now one of the RN's strongest constituencies in the entire country, finally fell after having been held by the left since the 1960s, with the local centre-left mavericky incumbent Jean-Louis Bricout being defeated by the first round (he still got an honourable 37.6%, in what was basically a straight fight between him and the RN). Jean-Marc Tellier, the PCF candidate who was the only one to defeat a RN incumbent in 2022 in Pas-de-Calais 3rd (a mining basin constituency), was defeated in the first round, getting just 32.3% to the RN's 52.4%. The right-wing maverick Charles de Courson, who has held Marne-5 since 1993 and has never faced particularly difficult elections except once in 1997, now finds himself a few points behind the RN in a constituency where the far-right is very strong (42.7% vs. 47%). LR incumbents like Fabien di Filippo and Pierre Cordier, in Moselle and Ardennes, are trailing the RN when in 2022 they'd been miles ahead in the first round.

- The NFP's results were in line with expectations. As was expected, the NFP's national result (28.1%) is less than the combined total of the NFP's four main component parties in the EP election (31.6%), but that's more or less the rule of coalitions (less than the sum of its parts). It's quite obvious that a fair number of Glucksmann (PS) voters and EELV voters didn't vote for the NFP - according to the Ifop and Ipsos polls, around 65-70% (or less) of PS and EELV EP voters voted for the NFP candidates, with the bulk of defections favouring macronismo. Strong incumbents and candidates overperformed the EP results. Maybe I'll make a map to figure out more patterns. Brittany, to cite one example, is shaping up to be a real disappointment for the NFP (in part courtesy of pretty awful LFI candidates) compared to expectations.

- Macronista results were generally bad compared to 2022 (though even then, not universally so) and much better compared to the EP elections, which were rock bottom. Compared to the Euros, macronismo gained from PS and LR voters. Several macronista incumbents and strong candidates performed well, in some cases even better (or just as well) than in 2022 - longtime incumbents like Philippe Vigier (who is trailing the RN but with 39% in his Eure-et-Loir constituency which is very brown now, he's still in fairly good position to win reelection), Yannick Favennec in Mayenne (who misses out on a first round victory like in 2022 but is at over 48%) and Thierry Benoit in Ille-et-Vilaine, as well as Sacha Houlié (Poitiers south), Thomas Cazenave (Bordeaux north), Bastien Marchive (Niort), Anne Le Hénanff (Vannes), Éric Bothorel (Lannion-Paimpol), Didier Le Gac (Brest/Saint-Renan), Stéphane Mazars (Aveyron), Sylvain Maillard (Paris centre), Benjamin Haddad (Paris 16e south) or Constance Le Grip (Neuilly-Puteaux), to name a few. Let's wait until the runoff to see how things shape up, and this election will still be a significant net loss for macronismo, but there's a chance it won't quite be the complete wipeout and bloodbath that some macronistas had privately feared it'd be.

- For LR, running significantly fewer candidates than in 2022, the party's vote is now very much - even more than in 2022 - the composite of its incumbents and other candidates with strong local roots (often local mayors and the like). Unsurprisingly, nearly all of them campaigned without the LR logo and on presenting themselves as 'local, independent, reasonable, hardworking [etc.] voices of [region]', with little mention of ideology. Not all LR incumbents did well - some of them will almost certainly fall to the RN in constituencies where even their incumbency can't overwhelm the nationalized nature of this election and the RN onslaught. But several of them did very well already in the first round (often those without macronista opposition and/or de facto macronista endorsements). Non-incumbents who did well are often local mayors (like Joël Bruneau, the mayor of Caen, who is likely to win Calvados-1, and who had no macronista rival), or had no macronista opponents/were supported by macronismo (like the various LR candidates in the Paris region who were supported by macronismo, or parts thereof in the case of Sylvain Berrios in Val-de-Marne). When you look at the map of their vote and how their candidates actually campaigned, it's really a hollowed out shell of a party - which is far from unusual in French history (hi, Radicals).

- I will post my own prediction map quite soon but I fall in line with most analysis: the probability of a RN absolute majority remains non-negligible, but has dropped since pre-R1, the most likely outcome by far is a RN plurality, although the size of the RN plurality now looks to be a bit smaller than what I'd have expected pre-R1, largely because a lot of the triangulaires didn't materialize.

- There remains a lot of uncertainty and the number of constituencies which are tossups is quite high. The biggest uncertainty, which will decide how big the RN plurality is (or if, in the worst case scenario, it gets 289+), is of course the discipline of vote transfers from eliminated/withdrawn candidates to the non-RN candidate(s) in the runoff. In 2022, vote transfers against the RN were pretty catastrophic and in general everyone knows that the so-called 'republican front' against the RN has broken or at least has a ton of cracks in it. A lot of voters won't follow 'indications' from national leaders, and will either break them (by voting RN) or not vote at all/cast invalid votes (the share of invalid votes in the 2017 and 2022 runoffs was quite high). For the RN to get an absolute majority (or a very big plurality), the 'republican front' discipline would need to be extremely bad, kind of like how it was in 2022 in many constituencies. In 2022, the Nupes left performed quite poorly in runoffs and was quite transfer-toxic, and a lot of things indicate that the NFP left in 2024 has the same problem: a lot of polls show that the anti-NFP vote is higher than the anti-RN vote (I don't think these polls are all that useful or predictive of things, but worth keeping in mind). This could very well hurt the NFP not only in left-RN runoffs (as in 2022) but also in left-macronismo runoffs/left-macronismo-RN triangulaires. So there's a good chance that the NFP's final seat count is disappointing, like in 2022, and there's an outside chance that the NFP and macronismo end up quite close in the seat count. On the other hand, the RN could have a much more disappointing night if the fear of a RN majority leads to a much stronger anti-RN vote than in 2022 (which is possible, given how different the two elections are, in terms of turnout and stakes) - I think this scenario is less likely than the continued decrepitude of the republican front discipline.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Good to see you here, Hash.

[Badger]

So, what does this likely mean for the next round?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There doesn't seem to be much competition in the outre-mer circumscriptions, almost all seem to be a massive first round lead for the incumbent. Is this typical?

[jaichind]

OpinionWay


RN 53 NFP 47


ENS 52 RN 48

[jaichind]

26-03   LR

This might be a typo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm frustrated by the lack of polling specifically on vote transfers between Left and Macronist voters against RN (as well as what LR voters are gonna do in these circumstances. Those are the actually useful figures to model runoff outcomes and I'm sure pollsters have estimates of them, but they seem reluctant to show them.