United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

Blackpool South might be to 2024 as Wirral South was to 1997.

[YL]

If they have thrown the towel on seats with a 20k majority what's left ?

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1803798644862095815

My guess is that this refers to North Shropshire.

[oldtimer]

If they have thrown the towel on seats with a 20k majority what's left ?

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1803798644862095815

My guess is that this refers to North Shropshire.

Perhaps but the press is saying that the Cons HQ are fighting to retain 60-80 seats.

[Yelnoc]

A question from an ignorant American:

If Reform starts to consistently outpoll the Conservatives down the stretch, could we see a significant block of Tories break off and vote Liberal Democrat to try and keep Reform out?

Or is that unlikely to be a factor nationally due to local dynamics? Or, for that matter, am I overestimating the number of Tory voters who would not have Reform as their second choice?

[Lechasseur]

Blackpool South might be to 2024 as Wirral South was to 1997.

What do you mean by this?

[TheTide]

Blackpool South might be to 2024 as Wirral South was to 1997.

What do you mean by this?

By-elections being held just before the respective general elections were called and being indicative of the general election outcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A question from an ignorant American:

If Reform starts to consistently outpoll the Conservatives down the stretch, could we see a significant block of Tories break off and vote Liberal Democrat to try and keep Reform out?

Or is that unlikely to be a factor nationally due to local dynamics? Or, for that matter, am I overestimating the number of Tory voters who would not have Reform as their second choice?

Most voters don't follow the polls and have only a very loose idea of what they say during a campaign.

[Duke of York]

A question from an ignorant American:

If Reform starts to consistently outpoll the Conservatives down the stretch, could we see a significant block of Tories break off and vote Liberal Democrat to try and keep Reform out?

Or is that unlikely to be a factor nationally due to local dynamics? Or, for that matter, am I overestimating the number of Tory voters who would not have Reform as their second choice?

I don;t think you'll be getting many Tories voting Liberal Democrat. I'd love to see them become the official opposition though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/timesscotland/status/1803827445709107276

Does Labour have a deal with the Devil or something?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Does Labour have a deal with the Devil or something?

Isn't there a meme about Keir Starmer keeping a genie locked in his basement?

[oldtimer]

More expected to be named in the Tory Election Gambling Scandal:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1803828868677013720

[TheTide]

It's kind of impressive, given all of this, that most of the Westminster bubble seemed to be taken by surprise on the 22nd of May. The circle of people 'in the know' wasn't as closely knitted as previously thought and there was a major clue on a major betting website.

[oldtimer]

It's kind of impressive, given all of this, that most of the Westminster bubble seemed to be taken by surprise on the 22nd of May. The circle of people 'in the know' wasn't as closely knitted as previously thought and there was a major clue on a major betting website.

I don't think anyone thought that Sunak would gamble with an early election.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1803812553069383879

good gosh. It's looking like a distinct possibility the UK has its own version of the 1993 Canadian election. Those are defeats parties rarely recover from.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/timesscotland/status/1803827445709107276

Does Labour have a deal with the Devil or something?

The SNP?!  Financial impropriety??!!  Truly shocking and totally unexpected.

[beesley]

And just in case you wanted to see which range those seats visited are in!

This also includes Sunak's addition of Suffolk Coastal, Starmer's additions of York Outer and Swindon South, and Davey's addition of Sheffield Hallam. There may be a couple of inaccuracies from the combination of beer and Love Island.

[YL]

This compares the various MRPs and prediction sites:
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

There are some seats which have three different parties predicted as winners: Aylesbury, Basildon & Billiericay, Brecon Radnor & Cwm Tawe, Chelmsford, Chichester, Clacton, Didcot & Wantage, Dumfries & Galloway, ...

[beesley]

I might be completely wrong but Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seems like the sort of seat that tactical voting models can't account for. How do you easily persuade voters in Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen, and even Pontardawe and Ystalyfera, to suddenly vote Lib Dem? (Whether they win by running up the margins in the Powys part of the seat or not). Likewise in Wimbledon as I was discussing with a fellow poster.

[oldtimer]

That was the most dreadfull town hall ever made, it was like they all tried to lose and reminded me of this:

[Storr]

That was the most dreadfull town hall ever made, it was like they all tried to lose and reminded me of this:

The more things change, the more things stay the same: "I should like to point out on behalf of the Liberal Democrats, that although we're all very nice people, we have absolutely no idea how to run a country."

[oldtimer]

That was the most dreadfull town hall ever made, it was like they all tried to lose and reminded me of this:

The more things change, the more things stay the same: "I should like to point out on behalf of the Liberal Democrats, that although we're all very nice people, we have absolutely no idea how to run a country."

Also "Do you want me to pop into Ladbrokes and put a large bet on Labour for you ? "

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Much better canvassing this week - in what should have been more Tory parts of the constituency!

The Conservative “stop the landslide” attack line was already backfiring there, as someone was voting against them on the basis that only the LDs could do such a thing.

The betting was mentioned on the doorstep, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I might be completely wrong but Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seems like the sort of seat that tactical voting models can't account for. How do you easily persuade voters in Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen, and even Pontardawe and Ystalyfera, to suddenly vote Lib Dem? (Whether they win by running up the margins in the Powys part of the seat or not). Likewise in Wimbledon as I was discussing with a fellow poster.

The only thing that is safe to say about that constituency is that the result there will be a mess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, along with the polls already mentioned in thread, we have some from other firms: Techne Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 17, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 2; BMG Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 19, LDem 9, Green 7, SNP 3, More in Common Lab 39, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3. MiC apply a particularly heavy re-weighting method, and just for completeness/comparisons sake the unadjusted figures are Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6.

[Mike88]

So, along with the polls already mentioned in thread, we have some from other firms: Techne Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 17, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 2; BMG Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 19, LDem 9, Green 7, SNP 3, More in Common Lab 39, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3. MiC apply a particularly heavy re-weighting method, and just for completeness/comparisons sake the unadjusted figures are Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6.

The PeoplePolling poll is... Wow!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1803513652906963170

This would be like a 230+ Labour majority. The Tories would probably have fewer than 50 seats, right?