Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 979397 times)
pppolitics
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« Reply #24550 on: July 19, 2023, 08:42:11 AM »

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pppolitics
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« Reply #24551 on: July 19, 2023, 08:48:50 AM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 08:52:31 AM by pppolitics »

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pppolitics
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« Reply #24552 on: July 19, 2023, 08:50:54 AM »

Ukrainian farmers are ready

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Torie
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« Reply #24553 on: July 19, 2023, 09:28:44 AM »

I don't understand why Putin thinks it benefits him to starve more people to death in the poorest of the poor nations by cutting off Ukrainian grain. It is not as if Ukraine needs the cash, with Biden writing it big checks. It is as if Putin wants Russia to be universally hated by everyone other than Assad, and Kim Jong Un and whatever psycho is running Iran these days. Just bat sh*t crazy it seems to me.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #24554 on: July 19, 2023, 09:54:55 AM »

I don't understand why Putin thinks it benefits him to starve more people to death in the poorest of the poor nations by cutting off Ukrainian grain. It is not as if Ukraine needs the cash, with Biden writing it big checks. It is as if Putin wants Russia to be universally hated by everyone other than Assad, and Kim Jong Un and whatever psycho is running Iran these days. Just bat sh*t crazy it seems to me.

Putin simps will still make excuses for him no matter what.  Including the entire nation of India.  So why not do something horrible that will just make people miserable?  It's what gets him off.
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Storr
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« Reply #24555 on: July 19, 2023, 10:40:47 AM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 10:50:10 AM by Storr »



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Storr
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« Reply #24556 on: July 19, 2023, 11:05:06 AM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 11:09:03 AM by Storr »

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-strikes-ukraines-odesa-port-hellish-attack-official-2023-07-19/

"Russia strikes Ukraine's Odesa port in 'hellish' attack"



Large Russian attack on Odessa.  Most likely retaliation for the Crimea Bridge attack.

Full screen view clip of air defenses starts at 1:26.

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Logical
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« Reply #24557 on: July 19, 2023, 11:17:56 AM »

Around 100 mobilized Russian soldiers are charged for desertion every week.
https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/19/337


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Torie
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« Reply #24558 on: July 19, 2023, 11:36:48 AM »

I guess Putin wants the US navy in the Black Sea.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24559 on: July 19, 2023, 12:41:03 PM »



This comes a day after Ramaphosa's claim that Russia had told them an arrest would mean war, but that Putin still planned to come anyway. I'm a bit surprised they haven't caved (for now).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24560 on: July 19, 2023, 12:43:12 PM »

I don't understand why Putin thinks it benefits him to starve more people to death in the poorest of the poor nations by cutting off Ukrainian grain. It is not as if Ukraine needs the cash, with Biden writing it big checks. It is as if Putin wants Russia to be universally hated by everyone other than Assad, and Kim Jong Un and whatever psycho is running Iran these days. Just bat sh*t crazy it seems to me.

Putin simps will still make excuses for him no matter what.  Including the entire nation of India.  So why not do something horrible that will just make people miserable?  It's what gets him off.

The Indian political class (and probably the median voter, to the extent that they care) is somewhat friendlier to Russia than average, but let's not judge a nation of 1 billion by its blue checks...

Edit: Russia itself is an excellent case in point. Telegram would suggest it is uniformly nationalist, when a large number of its people are just apathetic to a fault.
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Storr
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« Reply #24561 on: July 19, 2023, 01:56:26 PM »

Around 100 mobilized Russian soldiers are charged for desertion every week.
https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/19/337




If they aren't getting paid, it makes sense why so many are deserting:





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Virginiá
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« Reply #24562 on: July 19, 2023, 02:10:36 PM »

More military aid from the US using USAI funds. These will purchased from industry. Notably includes 4 additional NASAMS air defense systems and missiles for it.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3463890/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

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Dereich
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« Reply #24563 on: July 19, 2023, 02:22:17 PM »

I guess Putin wants the US navy in the Black Sea.

Unlikely that Turkey would permit that kind of violation of the Montreux Convention.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24564 on: July 19, 2023, 02:42:00 PM »

I guess Putin wants the US navy in the Black Sea.

Unlikely that Turkey would permit that kind of violation of the Montreux Convention.

Agreed.  If I was the USA my countermove would be to offer re-insurance for shipping insurers.  The reason no commercial ships will leave Ukraine ports now is not any Russian attack on shipping but that no shipping insurance will be willing to insure such commercial shipping.   USA government can now come in to reinsure the shipping insurance companies and dare Russia to attack that commercial shipping.  One clear problem is that this will take an act of Congress and I doubt the GOP in the House will back this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24565 on: July 19, 2023, 03:24:05 PM »

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Die-Sanktionen-sind-gescheitert-article24269752.html

German media: "The sanctions have failed"
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Storr
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« Reply #24566 on: July 19, 2023, 03:32:18 PM »

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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24567 on: July 19, 2023, 03:35:13 PM »

From the article (google translated from German)
Quote
You have to differentiate here too. The middle class definitely feels the sanctions. They vacationed in Europe before the war and bought Western branded goods that are no longer available or only available to a limited extent. The poorer classes, on the other hand, feel positive effects, at least economically. Real wages, that is, even after deducting inflation, are rising significantly. Because war and sanctions have led to a major labor shortage, forcing companies to pay employees better. Economically weak regions also benefit financially from the fact that many men go into the army. Because the military pays very good wages compared to the normal income in these regions.
Fascinating info.
Also this:
Quote
The Russian economy cannot be compared to the Soviet one. Russia is a true market economy. The entrepreneurial spirit, especially of small and medium-sized companies, has made it possible to set up alternative supply chains for many sanctioned supply chains comparatively quickly.
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Storr
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« Reply #24568 on: July 19, 2023, 03:46:22 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 03:52:47 PM by Storr »

I guess Putin wants the US navy in the Black Sea.

Unlikely that Turkey would permit that kind of violation of the Montreux Convention.

Agreed.  If I was the USA my countermove would be to offer re-insurance for shipping insurers.  The reason no commercial ships will leave Ukraine ports now is not any Russian attack on shipping but that no shipping insurance will be willing to insure such commercial shipping.   USA government can now come in to reinsure the shipping insurance companies and dare Russia to attack that commercial shipping.  One clear problem is that this will take an act of Congress and I doubt the GOP in the House will back this.

The White House said today what's in the tweet below. But does "not ready to announce" mean they are currently working on "measures to support the movement of ships to Ukrainian ports"? I'd think they're at least talking with the Turks/Erdogan.  



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Torie
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« Reply #24569 on: July 19, 2023, 04:32:46 PM »

Russia closing the Black Sea to shipping is just not acceptable. If it is closed, it should be closed to all, and Turkey should not let Russian shipping through. Once upon a time, in 1940, the convoy system was invented, while the US was not at war.
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Storr
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« Reply #24570 on: July 19, 2023, 05:13:35 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 05:29:20 PM by Storr »

Russia closing the Black Sea to shipping is just not acceptable. If it is closed, it should be closed to all, and Turkey should not let Russian shipping through. Once upon a time, in 1940, the convoy system was invented, while the US was not at war.

Unfortunately, even if Erdogan wanted to close access to the Mediterranean Sea for Russian merchant ships, the Montreux Convention makes it clear that Turkey can only close the Turkish Straits to merchant shipping of countries at war with Turkey.

SECTION I.
MERCHANT VESSELS.

Article 2.

In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the
Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any formalities, except
as provided in Article 3 below. No taxes or charges other than those authorized by Annex I to the
present Convention shall be levied by the Turkish authorities on these vessels when passing in transit
without calling at a port in the Straits.

In order to facilitate the collection of these taxes or charges merchant vessels passing through the
Straits shall communicate to the officials at the stations referred to in Article 3 their name, nationality,
tonnage, destination and last port of call (provenance).

Pilotage and towage remain optional.

Article 3.

All ships entering the Straits by the Aegean Sea or by the Black Sea shall stop at a sanitary station
near the entrance to the Straits for the purposes of the sanitary control prescribed by Turkish law within
the framework of international sanitary regulations. This control, in the case of ships posse-sing a
clean bill of health or presenting a declaration of health testifying that they do not fall within the scope
of the provisions of the second paragraph of the present Article, shall be carried out by day and by
night with all possible speed, and the vessels in question shall not be required to make any other stop
during their passage through the' Straits.

Vessels which have on board cases of plague, cholera, yellow fever exanthematic typhus or smallpox,
or which have had such cases on board during the previous seven days, and vessels which have left
an infected port within less than five times twenty-four hours shall stop at the sanitary stations
indicated in the preceding paragraph in order to embark such sanitary guards as the Turkish
authorities may direct. No tax or charge shall be levied in respect of these sanitary guard and they
shall be disembarked at a sanitary station on departure from the Straits.

Article 4

In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits subject to the provisions
of Articles 2 and 3.


Pilotage and towage remain optional.

Article 5.

In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war
with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy.

Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit shall be effected by the route
which shall in each case be indicated by the Turkish authorities.

Article 6.

Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war, the provisions
of Article 2 shall nevertheless continue to be applied except that vessels must enter the Straits by day and that their transit must be effected by the route which shall, in each case, be indicated by
the Turkish authorities.

Pilotage may, in this case, be made obligatory, but no charge shall be levied.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24571 on: July 19, 2023, 08:43:17 PM »

Russia closing the Black Sea to shipping is just not acceptable. If it is closed, it should be closed to all, and Turkey should not let Russian shipping through. Once upon a time, in 1940, the convoy system was invented, while the US was not at war.

What International Flags do the Ukrainian Grain Ships currently fly under?

What if they were to be reflagged to US flags, just like during the "Tanker War" phase of the Iran-Iraq War?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will
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Jerseyan
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« Reply #24572 on: July 19, 2023, 10:52:43 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2023, 10:58:45 PM by Jerseyan »

German media: "The sanctions have failed"

It's an interview with an Economist for n-tv.

My German is rough but I did my best to read it. The German Media didn't declare an opinion one way or the other.

Edit: Theres just something so off putting about posting an article in another language and claiming it says something specific.

What your post should say is: Vasily Astrov, Austrian Economist and Russian expert, says sanctions have failed in new interview with German News Station.
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Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24573 on: July 19, 2023, 11:03:18 PM »

German media: "The sanctions have failed"

It's an interview with an Economist for n-tv.

My German is rough but I did my best to read it. The German Media didn't declare an opinion one way or the other.

Edit: Theres just something so off putting about posting an article in another language and claiming it says something specific.

What your post should say is: Vasily Astrov, Austrian Economist and Russian expert, says sanctions have failed in new interview with German News Station.
Left-click for Google Translate is a very useful trick. Because of it I had no problem with the article.
Your German is probably better than mine.
Welcome to the forum, btw.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24574 on: July 20, 2023, 05:11:02 AM »

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/london-blocked-olympic-bosses-hosting-084718734.html

"London blocked by Olympic bosses from hosting Paris 2024 qualifier over Russian stance"

Quote
London has been blocked from hosting the new Olympic Qualifier Series in the build-up to the Paris Games over the position on athletes from Russia and Belarus.

Under British Government rules, competitors from both nations must sign a declaration that they are not state funded and back neither the invasion of Ukraine nor President Vladimir Putin.
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