Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Blue3]

Putin: Ukraine should not exist because it was created by communists, it belongs to the Russian Empire

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1495834628887879683?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1495832718856400906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495835976702251008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1495832401305612297?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1495836605071904771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...








So, should Ukraine exist?

[Blue3]

Sirens of war have started in Kyev



Also, PLEASE update the thread title. This isn't about tensions or Poland-Belarus. That's why I tried to start a separate thread.

[Blue3]

Not proven.

Russia had forces in Transnistria.

[Blue3]

My only worry is if Russia interprets Poland becoming sanctuary for retreating Ukrainian forces counts as an "act of aggression," and it goes to war with Poland thinking NATO couldn't be invoked.

[Blue3]

This is a great, short speech from the UN ambassador from Kenya, last night:
https://youtu.be/ZxZlaiuicYM




Meanwhile, Russian TV is playing videos of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, praising Putin
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1496191658387517443


Just like Trump was again: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-again-praises-putin-moments-before-russia-launches-invasion-of-ukraine-042841605.html



Another reminder, if Trump was President now, we'd probably no longer even be in NATO
https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1496499234786451467




As for the protesters, Russia has arrested at least 1700 of them so far
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/russia-arrests-anti-war-protesters_n_6217dc4be4b0f800ce1e2516

[Blue3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1497100193283686402

Ukraine has launched a ballistic missile into an airbase in Russia. 🇺🇦💪

They should launch one into Putin’s office with him in it.

Just remember that if Ukraine attacks Moscow or any Russian city, even legitimate targets, that will silence the protesters and mark them as traitors. Then they'll have their "rally around the flag" effect.

[Blue3]

Call IT support, the simulation broke again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonutOperator/status/1497114514713714688

Taliban came to power by opposing Russia, and then came back to power by creating a peace agreement with the US.

[Blue3]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

[Blue3]

Pope Francis makes unusually move of walking directly to the Russian embassy and demanding peace
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pope-francis-russian-embassy-ukraine_n_6218e5aee4b0ef74d72f052f

[Blue3]

Not 100% verified but being shared around, I know at least some is true, and I’m sure all or most of it is:




For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “

It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.

Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country:

1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialised country:

1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world.

[Blue3]

With Kazakhstan denying Putin’s request to aid Russia, we need a meme of Putin in a dress kneeling to Borat saying “help me, Kazakhstan, you’re my only hope”

[Blue3]

Ukraine has killed off the Chechen general

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497640933625577473?s=21

[Blue3]

Ukraine has killed off the Chechen general

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497640933625577473?s=21

God is great!

Let’s hope they keep it up

[Blue3]

https://twitter.com/MarketRebels/status/1497675529490767881

[Blue3]

Putin fires top general

https://twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1497989705903788036

[Blue3]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

Well this is why the US allied with Pakistan in the Cold War...

[Blue3]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498036010038480900


https://twitter.com/joshualipsky/status/1498024933070446602

[Blue3]

Kaliningrad secession talks

[Blue3]

Putin’s “time to go after Scum and Traitors here in Russia” speech is definitely alarming.

But it does also show the consequences against Russia are working in the sense of Putin feeling very much like he might lose it all. Far from his “it’s impossible to hurt us, we laugh at your attempts, we will be fine” earlier speeches.

[Blue3]

Some Ukrainian celebrities have died recently, including ballet star Artyom Datsishin and actor Oksana Shvets
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ukrainian-ballet-star-dies-from-russian-shelling-colleagues-say_n_62348e69e4b009ab92f7a832


Putin has put his top spy, head of the FSB, under house-arrest
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trouble-kremlin-gulag-spy-boss-041049268.html

[Blue3]

https://twitter.com/AnnaMyroniuk/status/1510524144349327360

These people are animals.

They're people. This is what humans have done in basically every war and violent conflict, for all human history and prehistory. It's immoral, but it's very human.All wars are like this. Think Iraq and Afghanistan were squeaky-clean?

[Blue3]

Soldiers in general have always tended to do that kind of stuff in wartime. Not all of them, but enough of them, in basically every war on every side. Some are just better at propaganda and covering their tracks. It’s part of human nature. Inexcusable. But true. Let’s not dehumanize an entire culture/nation/ethnicity as inherently worse.

[Blue3]

If Russia moves against Moldova now, it will be more of a change in strategy for the Ukraine war than greed for Moldova itself. It will mean that Putin will focus more on holding eastern and coastal Ukraine, choking it off. And that means Russia will focus more on just holding those areas and then just do sporadic bombing and incursions into Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine for years to maybe over a decade… until western arms shipments to Ukraine finally dry up, western sanctions against Russia finally end, and then a decade-battered Ukraine with no access to the sea is finally completely annexed by a more war-hardened Russian military. This could very well go until 2035. Moldova probably means a more dangerous and competent long-term strategy. It’s a relatively poor, small, landlocked country by itself.

[Blue3]

What do the residents of Crimea, formerly Ukrainian citizens, think of the 2022 invasion?

I know many were pro-Russian and let Crimea be annexed, relatively quickly and peacefully.

But after being a part of Ukraine for decades, I wonder what they think of all this?

[Blue3]

You know Russia isn’t doing too well when it’s going to Iran to restock its war supplies:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-armed-drones-russia-ukraine-white-house-rcna37777