United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[morgieb]

YouGov have some polling in various demographic groups; see the Twitter thread starting below for details.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1752281504728707076
- the usual ridiculous age divide
- something of an education divide, though note that this seems to be mostly among older voters
- weak gender gap
- little effect of "class" (though of course they mean the dubious ABCDE system)

Caveat: I don't know how well weighted these samples are. Caveat 2: as usual I suspect Reform UK are over-polled (but note how like Tories their supporters look).

So assuming I'm reading this correctly (I might not be) the Tories are 4th amongst under 40's? Wow. How on earth do they expect to win elections going forward?

[morgieb]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

Does he have a shot of winning here?

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

[morgieb]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

If the Tories are struggling in South Staffordshire of all places....

[morgieb]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

In fairness I don't think 60+ seats is at all likely for the Lib Dems.

But I think the reason is that they'll probably win a few three-way (maybe even four-way depending on the seat) contests with percentages in the low 30's (maybe even high 20's), while making no impact in a lot of their non-target seats.

[morgieb]

Penny Mordaunt - "The lesson of the past few years is that Labour will do this and that....."

If Mordaunt actually did become PM they would've imploded just as hard as they did now. Gully doesn't call her the Carry On PM for no reason....

[morgieb]

So it's not completely out of the question the Tories finish 5th? Wowee.

Anyone trying to play a drinking game probably needs to preempt an ambulance.

[morgieb]

So Vote Compass (one of those who do you align with style quizzes, predominately based in Australia and Canada) has done a quiz from the UK.

I got the following:

https://votecompass.uk/result?i=04615316e0dc0b93048a2d7b9c0d8d&r=34IMvYEN78vEnOZQIfxeN&l=en&n=en

[morgieb]

Unusually, three phone polls came out this morning. They are: Survation Lab 41, Con 18, Ref 14, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 2; Ipsos Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 15, LDem 11, Green 7, SNP/Plaid 5; Verian Lab 38, Con 21, Ref 16, LDem 12, Green 8, SNP 3

_{Some notes that may be useful: this Survation poll was UK-wide rather than GB-wide (which is also true of Savanta polling, incidentally), Ipsos used to be MORI and are the oldest players in the polling game, and Verian used to be Kantar, which always used to produce better Con results than average (sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly).}

Other polls out today: More in Common Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3; Norstat Lab 39, Con 23, Ref 15, LDem 12, Green 6, SNP 4, BMG Lab 42, Con 20, Ref 16, LDem 3, Green 6, SNP ?

Tangibly large swing to the tories. Debate bounce combined with a dead cat bounce?

Also different pollsters, the ones which had the Tories and Reform tied haven’t made a statement yet.

The other factor could be Farage overreaching on Ukraine.