Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[lfromnj]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595993-speaker-johnson-unveils-plan-for-ukraine-israel-at-closed-door-gop-meeting/

"Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting"

Looks like some variation of the Ukraine aid bill will get passed in the House.

If it does pass I wonder how much can be due to the Iranian attack forcing the Israel aid bill which Biden said he will only sign with Ukraine.

[lfromnj]

She wants to win her competitive Republican primary which she entered months after claiming she would retire. Politically her decision makes sense, as Republican primary voters in Indiana aren't exactly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Morally? Abandoning her native country in its greatest time of need is for her to live with.

"Indeed, the only Ukrainian-born member of the U.S. House voted against the bill and helping her home country — and three days after a Russian missile attack killed 18 people near where she was raised in Chernihiv region."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1781772166846927201

Morally speaking American citizens should have no dual loyalty towards their native countries. I myself have specifically argued against increasing trade with India because of the weight it has. It makes far more sense to invest into SEA where we can divide and conquer.

[lfromnj]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

[lfromnj]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

That corruption is directly tied to Russia. Like it doesn’t take too much effort to put together that Ukraine having corrupt oligarchs might be related to bordering the biggest corrupt oligarchy country in the world

The corrupt oligarchs actually are far more mixed than you think. Poroshenko is a fairly corrupt oligarch but you can't deny his anti Russian bonafides.  Joining a fairly strong centralized state such as Russia under Putin's rule means that you accept his rule which is something corrupt oligarchs don't want. Putin actually does work with Oligarchs but he also somewhat brought them under control in the early aughts.

[lfromnj]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

edit: I think its still possible for this to happen but a lot of predictions or statements from a lot of atlas users are far too optimistic. Just want to see how this play out.

[lfromnj]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

The 1st Chechen war was Yeltsin

[lfromnj]

A peace conference without even an invitation to one of the combatants is not a serious conference.

[lfromnj]

Who is actually hiring more mercs ?
Seems like a pretty massive failure by the west if it’s Russia. Russia has zero ppp advantage when it comes to merc hiring. A dollar is 90 rubles .