If your Early 2021 Self saw the polling board today, what would be your guess happened?

[Sir Mohamed]

If yourself from January or February 2021, just after Biden was sworn in, was able to take a look at the polling board today, what would be your guess happened over the last 3+ years? Assume you only saw the polling, not anything else what happened in the meantime. You're also unaware Dems didn't get crushed in 2022 and overperformed polls. You only know that Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees.

Tbh, I would guess we're in a worse recession than 2008 and Biden is blamed for it. Or we're either in an unpopular war or Biden had a major scandal, while Trump somehow moderated/at least became more disciplined. The polling would be a shock since I thought Trump was finally done after January 6.

I think this question shows how absurd this race is, especially when you consider that most of the forum thinks Biden governed fairly well within his possibilities.

[Obama24]

I would guess we were in a similar place economically as 1933 or 1980, or I would think that Biden got us bogged down in a really really unpopular war similar to Korea or Vietnam. My February 2021 self assumed Trump would go away, or be in prison by now and Biden would would've committed to being a voluntary one termer, and we'd have had a competitive primary of someone younger running right now. So the polling would confuse me in several ways.

I hoped then that Trump would go away, Biden would be a transitional one term President and pass the torch to younger Dems, and we'd have two 50ish people running right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Recession

[BlueSwan]

I would assume that COVID-19 gotten really really bad and caused a long lasting recession. Which frankly wouldn't have been unexpected at the beginning of 2021.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wouldn't entirely be surprised.

I knew Biden's honeymoon period would never last.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Major recession; which is odd because we're essentially living in a recession right now with the exception of not meeting the dictionary definition of one. Biden has failed by every metric to calm gas and food prices, and it's painful for the average American.

[dspNY]

The justice system failed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That Trump was never indicted, but obviously no one foresaw inflation or COVID sticking around this long