Who will be the Senate challengers in 2026?

[Spectator]

A lot will matter in terms of how many seats Dems lose in 2024. There’s a big difference from being down 49-51 versus 47-53.

North Carolina: there will be a lot of pressure from national Dems on Roy Cooper to run here. I don’t think it’ll be a particularly hard sell either, especially if Trump is President. He has the best poll numbers in the state, plus consistently is the highest Democrat vote-getter. He’ll be 69, but that’s not old for Senate standards. Tillis will probably receive a primary challenge given his apostasies with the base. Possibly from Mark Robinson if he loses this year since those two are openly feuding.

Maine: Not sure. I think national Democrats will want Jared Golden to run to scare Susan Collins into retirement, but Trump winning might just do that anyway. Democrats need someone from the more rural/WWC parts of the state after the Gideon flop. Collins’ deciding to potentially retire would make this an auto-flip, but she also strikes me as someone who wants to be a lifer. Not sure who else besides Golden can beat Collins. Mills would be 79 when she starts a hypothetical term.

Georgia: it’s pretty clear Brian Kemp wants to run, but Trump has publicly floated MTG several times, and she’d destroy the whole ticket if she got the nomination.

Michigan: maybe John James takes a stab at it again, especially if he thinks his House seat would be at risk in a Trump midterm anyway.

Kansas: Depending on the deficit in the Senate post-2024, Dems might need a Hail Mary (or two). Laura Kelly is super popular, and who knows what the situation would be like in a Trump midterm, and with Kris Kobach potentially the GOP gubernatorial nominee.

Texas: Hail Mary #2. Re-run Allred if he keeps it close this year, or go for some hispanic state legislator that is moderate on the right things. Hope the GOP nominates Ken Paxton. Pray.

Iowa: Hail Mary #3. Run Rob Sand since he is the last on the bench and hope for lightning to strike.

Any I’m missing? I’m sure Schumer would try to idiotically coax JBE into the LA race or Beshear into KY, but those are not even Hail Marys anymore; just suicide runs.

[Talleyrand]

In Maine, State Senate President Troy Jackson could be a good choice. A progressive, he consistently wins in Arostook County- Collins' home base.

[Spectator]

Kemp already faced a primary challenge in 2022 supported by Trump yet he easily won the gubernatorial nomination

Trump wasn’t the incumbent President and Kemp wouldn’t be running as an incumbent with Democrats crossing over to vote for him. This Senate primary would be completely different.

[UWS]

Kemp already faced a primary challenge supported by Trump two years ago yet he easily won the gubernatorial nomination

[Tekken_Guy]

AL: Tuberville vs. Saban in a Trump midterm could be closer than usual but it’s highly unlikely to actually flip.

AK: Not sure if Peltola runs here or waits for Murkowski to retire. But this is definitely a top target in a Trump midterm, not so much in a Biden one.

CO: I could see Boebert run here if she decides she’s done with the house after three terms, especially if Trump wins. Could be a good pivot to a lucrative media career. If Biden wins the GOP probably try for a more serious name here.

GA: It’ll be very tough for Kemp to win if Trump is president. Ossoff is not Abrams and turnout dynamics will likely be way more favorable to Dems than 2022 was, plus it may strengthen MAGA efforts to push him out of the race for MTG. It’s possible he passes on the race if Trump wins and instead turns his focus to the presidency in 2028.

IA: I think Sand is more likely to go for governor. Cindy Axne might be the best bet here, and Dems might make a serious shot at this one if Trump wins, though they’ll likely ignore it if Biden holds on.

KS: Laura Kelly or even Sharice Davids in a Trump midterm would definitely put this on the radar.

KY/LA: we should wait to see how Hogan does first before thinking about JBE or Beshear. Trump did win both of these states by less than Biden won Maryland in 2020, though it’s very possible MD is closer than one or both this year.

ME: Golden is definitely the best bet in ME. Jackson would be best suited to replace Golden in the house. Collins probably needs Biden to win if she wants to survive.

MI: Peters should be OK in a Trump midterm but is probably a bigger target in a Biden one. John James might make a third go at it, otherwise someone like Lisa McClain could run.

NH: Possibly Sununu? Definitely more likely to happen if Biden wins. I don’t think this is seriously on the radar with Trump back.

NC: Cooper’s obviously the top pick, but Wiley Nickel is a solid back-up if the former passes over. Tillis may or may not retire, and someone like Robinson (if he loses) could be a problem for the GOP here.

TX: This one will only be on the board with Trump. Especially if someone like Ken Paxton or Ronny Jackson get the nod. Maybe they go with Allred again but Gutierrez or one of the Castros might also take a look at this.

VA: This one’s probably only seriously targeted if Biden wins. Youngkin might go for it, otherwise Miyares or Kiggans maybe?

[Spectator]

Kemp already faced a primary challenge supported by Trump two years ago yet he easily won the gubernatorial nomination

No idea why you decided to delete your original post and then post the exact same thing after i offered my rebuttal, but they would be entirely different dynamics. Kemp would probably have the edge, yes. But Trump as an incumbent President would be more powerful and influential than before, with Democrats not crossing over to bail out Kemp and Raffensperger this time.

[Spectator]

^I forgot Alaska and New Hampshire as the more plausible long-shots. If Peltola survives this year, I think she’d be smarter to wait for 2028 when Murkowski hangs it up. Defeating Sullivan even in a Trump midterm might be too tall of a task. But who knows.

New Hampshire with Sununu I didn’t even consider given him passing on it in 2022 when everyone expected him to run. I have my doubts that he would have beat Hassan in 2022 given how much of a blowout that was, fwiw.

[SnowLabrador]

There won’t be elections in 2026 if Trump wins.

[Spectator]

There won’t be elections in 2026 if Trump wins.

🙄

[GoldenMainer]

In Maine, State Senate President Troy Jackson could be a good choice. A progressive, he consistently wins in Arostook County- Collins' home base.

Jackson and Golden would both be fantastic choices- from the second district and battle-tested in tough elections.

I could see others from the southern part of the state hop in though. Possibly Justin Chenette, who's gay and was elected to the Maine House at 21. Possibly Ryan Fecteau, another former gay state Rep. who served as Speaker of the House. Erin Herbig could be a sleeper pick for higher office too (and is from the second district).

[Tekken_Guy]

In Maine, State Senate President Troy Jackson could be a good choice. A progressive, he consistently wins in Arostook County- Collins' home base.

Jackson and Golden would both be fantastic choices- from the second district and battle-tested in tough elections.

I could see others from the southern part of the state hop in though. Possibly Justin Chenette, who's gay and was elected to the Maine House at 21. Possibly Ryan Fecteau, another former gay state Rep. who served as Speaker of the House. Erin Herbig could be a sleeper pick for higher office too (and is from the second district).

Jackson might go for Golden’s house seat if the latter runs for Senate. Doubt they both run against each other.