United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1799352632974225571

[oldtimer]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

We could make a nice list of songs from the end of political eras.
Here's Rory Bremner doing a good impersonation of Gordon Brown singing about his sorrows:

[Torrain]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

[morgieb]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

If the Tories are struggling in South Staffordshire of all places....

[Harlow]

Well, time to get this thing going.

I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment.  

People are forgetting how high of a climb this would be for Labour.  In the famous Blair Landslide they gained 146 seats. This prediction would be around that much. Plus for whatever reason right wing parties tend to fall in line and come around more than left wing parties who are overly concerned with “purity” … I happen to like Kier Starmer a lot. But the British public don’t - Labour should win this by default and it’ll be a good showing but polls tighten during a campaign we all know that and the inflation numbers are just enough to put the “but maybe” in the mind of disenchanted Tory voters - so  for sure a likely good night for Labour but the 400’s is unlikely and the poll of polls showing greater than the first Blair Landslide is taking it a little too far IMO.

So a rough idea of where I think this is going…

Labour                     360  (+155)
Conservative           210   (-134)
Liberal Democrat      35   (+20)
SNP                           25   (-18)

Updating my forecast….


Labour                     390  (+185)
Conservative           176   (-169)
Liberal Democrat     42   (+27)
SNP                           27   (-16)
Reform                        3   (+3)

I don’t think Nigel wins a seat, I think it’s just 3 random seats where the Tory vote collapses

If you're getting your forecast from electoral calculus, their algorithm seems to plug in previous "Other" votes as being for Reform. So Rochdale (where Galloway won for the Workers Party in a by-election), Ashfield (where the Ashfield Independents finished strong in 2019), and East Devon (where Independent Claire Wright picked up 40% of the vote in 2019) all (erroneously) show as Reform pick-ups with a strong Reform vote.

If you just randomly decided 3 other seats would go Reform but not Clacton... what's your reasoning?

[Torrain]

If the Tories are struggling in South Staffordshire of all places....

Cabinet ministers are being sent to campaign in Huntingdon. It’s end of days stuff.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1799394769824616736

[CumbrianLefty]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

It would be one of the last few dozen Tory seats to fall in any case, surely. And they might have better pulled off this stunt (the Reform candidate withdrew on Friday afternoon, too late to be replaced) in a more vulnerable seat. Its a despicable thing to do regardless of party btw.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

What is that?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

What is that?

A Dalek from 'Doctor Who.'

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

What is that?

A Dalek from 'Doctor Who.'

No I mean what's the person with the Dalek.

[Torrain]

No I mean what's the person with the Dalek.

Gavin Williamson, former chief whip. Fired by May as Defence Sec for leaking to the press, rehired by Johnson, and then fired as Education Sec for screwing up school exams during COVID. One of the likely survivors, unfortunately.

[Torrain]

The Green Party candidate for Deptford and Lewisham North, ladies and gents (check the dates):


Reported on yesterday, still an endorsed candidate so far.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I wonder if things could possibly have been worse if Truss was still leader.

I have persistently believed that Liz Truss would have dragged my beloved Conservatives to around 26-28% by Other-May Mayday Day. The reason I've never said this out loud is because I normally stick to discussing the American elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder if things could possibly have been worse if Truss was still leader.

I have persistently believed that Liz Truss would have dragged my beloved Conservatives to around 26-28% by Other-May Mayday Day. The reason I've never said this out loud is because I normally stick to discussing the American elections.

It's possible the Tories would have done a bit better under Truss, but the thing is that Labour would have done a Lot better. Remember they were polling in the 50s when she was PM.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

We could make a nice list of songs from the end of political eras.
Here's Rory Bremner doing a good impersonation of Gordon Brown singing about his sorrows:

Sadly the classic Spitting Image bit with all of Thatcher's cabinet ministers, parliament, the queen and then the whole of Britain singing "Go Now" to her has heen copyrighted (would have probably seen use under BoJo and Truss).

[Torrain]

The second worst thing about the attempted reboot (behind it all being a bit crap) was that they used it as an excuse to scrub all evidence of the original show from YouTube. Matt Forde is a menace.

[RBH]

Some constituencies might behave oddly for various reasons. Some of the by-election seats could come under this heading, as could the Green targets, but here are some others (not intended as a full list!):

 (..)

Rotherham (Lab in 2019) The lack of a Tory candidate will certainly cause some oddities, likely meaning unusually high shares for Reform UK, who would have some potential here anyway, and the Yorkshire Party. Labour really ought to be safe, though.

i'm gonna make up a projection that doesn't account for boundary changes or actual demographics

2019 in Rotherham was Lab 41, Con 33, Brexit 17, LD 5, York 3

so 2024 has about 50% of the vote already up in the air.. the candidates are Lab, LD, Ref, Green, Workers, York, and Independent Muslim

14 of that 50 goes to Labour, 28 goes to Reform, LD gets 1 somehow, 4 to Workers, 2 to Green, 1 to York

Then Labour loses about 5% back, 3 to Green, 2 to Workers

So... Lab 50, Ref 28, LD 6, WPGB 6, Green 5, York 4, Ahmad 1. As far as made up projections go, that's one of them. UKIP was finishing 2nd in Rotherham in 12/15 and BNP was over 5% in 05/10/12

Now the constituency I noticed last night because of how many candidates are running is Ealing Southall.

Sharma isn't running. Labour nominated Deirdre Costigan. There's 11 other candidates including 5 independents with multiple Punjabi names (Sangeet Kaur Bhali, Jaginger Singh). Would it be accurate to suspect there was a controversy with the Labour pick and that there'll be a certain amount of localized swing as a result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcgregormt/status/1799516879993639375

[WD]

I’m afraid there is no money.

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799518676472709442

[xelas81]

I’m afraid there is no money.

Permanent Secretary to Rachel Reeves on July 5th.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1799112386273845446

ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 19% (=)
RFM: 16% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 5-6 Jun.
Changes w/ 3-4 Jun.

Still looking good for labour...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/SimonDalling/status/1799134316380709331

And actually, even better:

@ElectionMapsUK @YouGov This👆would give the Conservatives on 48 seats and make the LidDems the official opposition.

Liberals replace Tories as one of the 2 main parties in the 2 party system, 100 years after being replaced themselves by Labour? Imagine emerging from the wilderness after... a century...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476

Insane movement, Labour +4 in this poll

Savanta_UK
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
@Telegraph

📈20pt Labour lead - highest since Jan

🌹Lab 46 (+4)
🌳Con 26 (-2)
➡️Reform 11 (+2)
🔶LD 10 (+1)
🌍Green 3 (-1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 3 (-2)

2,095 UK adults, 5-7 June

(chg 31 May-2 June)