United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[JimJamUK]

On the one hand, Clegg is a reminder of how things can change during the course of a general election campaign. On the other hand, he is a reminder that major parties can be almost entirely wiped out.  

Although, on the former point, 'Cleggmania' came to virtually nothing in the actual election. 

It did actually result in a much better Lib Dem performance than they were heading for, it’s just that this bump only got them back to their 2005 result (and polling suggested more than this).

[MABA 2020]

On the one hand, Clegg is a reminder of how things can change during the course of a general election campaign. On the other hand, he is a reminder that major parties can be almost entirely wiped out.  

Although, on the former point, 'Cleggmania' came to virtually nothing in the actual election. 

It did actually result in a much better Lib Dem performance than they were heading for, it’s just that this bump only got them back to their 2005 result (and polling suggested more than this).

A disappointment when your hoping to become LOTO

[TheTide]

On the one hand, Clegg is a reminder of how things can change during the course of a general election campaign. On the other hand, he is a reminder that major parties can be almost entirely wiped out.  

Although, on the former point, 'Cleggmania' came to virtually nothing in the actual election. 

It did actually result in a much better Lib Dem performance than they were heading for, it’s just that this bump only got them back to their 2005 result (and polling suggested more than this).

A disappointment when your hoping to become LOTO

I don't think there was ever any realistic prospect of that. IIRC the Lib Dem private polling suggested a seat total somewhere in the 80s, which would probably have been enough to allow them to seriously consider a coalition with Labour. The numbers as they fell made that almost implausible.     

[adma]

I do wonder what the state is of the political operations in some of these safe Conservative seats; it was a particularly unique example but we know Scottish Labour did so poorly in 2015 as some local parties had essentially not really canvassed for a decade, and the MPs had neglected the constituency side.

I am making no comment on his local record but someone like say Oliver Dowden has a 21,000 majority and has had to spend the last 6 years in various Government roles; it's a seat that isn't vulnerable enough to have got special attention in recent years although the recent council results in 2023 were in the yikes category- it flipped to a Labour/Liberal coalition after 20+ years of Tory control.

Re "in recent years": it's worth noting how his constituency was brought to marginality in the '97 Blair landslide--but the ballooning scale of post-Blair Tory majorities probably leave a whole lot of Tories unprepared for being Blaired again.  (And needless to say, that lax state of operations likely pertained in '97 over and over again.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it's a bit of a cycle (and has applied, as we scarcely need reminding) to Labour as well. The trouble is being GE-ready really isn't the same as being ready to fight competitive local elections: that's an entirely different game, utterly different.

[Storr]

The Telegraph… less so.

...what in God's name is that even supposed to mean

This woman's previous editorial was titled "Noisy minorities are being allowed to bully the rest of us into silence". 😬

I thought this might have been a joke at first.

But no: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/25/noisy-minorities-allowed-to-bully-the-us-into-silence/

[Beet]

The Telegraph… less so.

...what in God's name is that even supposed to mean

This woman's previous editorial was titled "Noisy minorities are being allowed to bully the rest of us into silence". 😬

I thought this might have been a joke at first.

But no: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/25/noisy-minorities-allowed-to-bully-the-us-into-silence/

Fascinating woman, fascinating article:
https://www.city-journal.org/article/up-from-liberalism

[Torrain]

Nice resource from Andy Lawton, mapping the state of candidate selection amongst the major nation-wide parties:
https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1797255934353318127

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that Labour has 100% coverage now (barring any almost literally last minute withdrawals)

[Steve from Lambeth]

WPB has 200 candidates? Wow; Galloway was only promising "dozens if not scores" a couple of months ago when every man and his pet labradoodle thought there was going to be an October election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We really do need to increase the parliamentary deposit to account for inflation. £500 is not much of a disincentive now, and it would be funny to see a self-important microparty land itself in financial difficulties because of overambition.

[rob in cal]

Did Starmer really call for less immigration? Is he trying to outflank the Tories, appeal to ancestral Labour voters? Looking to the Denmark model?

[YL]

I think that Labour has 100% coverage now (barring any almost literally last minute withdrawals)

Yes, the reason why it's shown as 97% is that it's out of all 650 seats, i.e. including Chorley and the Northern Ireland seats, where Labour was never going to stand.

I do wonder whether quite a few of these announced Workers Party and SDP candidates will not actually make it to the ballot. £500 isn't an enormous sum for a single candidacy, but 200 deposits add up and I doubt all the candidates will want to pay it themselves. We will see on Friday.

[JimJamUK]

Did Starmer really call for less immigration? Is he trying to outflank the Tories, appeal to ancestral Labour voters? Looking to the Denmark model?

Immigration was sky high last year but is expected to come down quite a bit this year, in part due to government policy. Labour have basically backed these changes, and while squeamish about giving targets (which the Conservatives have repeatedly broken to their detriment) they clearly believe a more ‘normal’ immigration level is preferable.

And FWIW, the Denmark model doesn’t really exist anymore as the government has embraced mass economic migration (the opposite of what the UK is no doing).

[Torrain]

Debates schedule is starting to firm up:

• 3rd June (STV) - Scottish leaders debate
• 4th June (ITV) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate
• 7th June (BBC) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 12th June (Sky News) - townhall-style leaders event
• 13th June (ITV) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 20th June (BBC) - Question Time Leaders Special
• 26th June (BBC) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate

More devolved nation debates to be announced, but looks like most of the national events have been set.

[Coldstream]

Nick Clegg is, per the FT, using his Facebook salary to bankroll the Lib Dem campaign in his former Hallam seat, pumping thousands into the race.

There's something endearingly parochial about a man who has the reach and means to buy US Senators instead throwing cash at a tiny race between two social democrats in Sheffield.

I’ve got a niche prediction that if we lose one seat it’ll be Hallam (Tories voting tactically for the Lib Dem’s like they did in 2015 but didn’t in 17/19) not Bristol Central.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

We really do need to increase the parliamentary deposit to account for inflation. £500 is not much of a disincentive now, and it would be funny to see a self-important microparty land itself in financial difficulties because of overambition.

They should ask for signatures from a certain percentage of the electorate (which would also force the sleepiest and laziest of constituency parties to actually get off their butts).

[LabourJersey]

Debates schedule is starting to firm up:

• 3rd June (STV) - Scottish leaders debate
• 4th June (ITV) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate
• 7th June (BBC) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 12th June (Sky News) - townhall-style leaders event
• 13th June (ITV) - 7 party leader/representatives debate
• 20th June (BBC) - Question Time Leaders Special
• 26th June (BBC) - Starmer vs Sunak head-to-head debate

More devolved nation debates to be announced, but looks like most of the national events have been set.

I'll be in the UK for the June 12th debate (In Belfast, of all places!). Will be fascinating and surreal, as a longtime observer of UK politics, to be a first hand observer of a UK general election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does This YouTube comment summarize well what people are angry about?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Vote Conservatives for more of this:

1. Highest energy bills in Europe.
2. Highest taxes in 70 years.
3. Highest interest rates since 2008.
4. Highest train fares in Europe.
5. Longest waiting lists in NHS history.
6. Raw sewage pumped into rivers and our coastline.
7. Lowest corporate taxes in 50 years.
8. Lowest State Pension in Europe.
9. Highest Immigration both legal and illegal ever.
10. Destroyed the NHS dentist service.
11. Brought the Brexit vote and ruined the country.
12. One failed Prime Minister after another.
13. Worlds shortest in post Prime Minister.
14. More corrupt MP's than any other party in parliament.
15. Europes longest Austerity for the lower paid.
16. Highest Council Tax rates in the World.
17. Reduced our Armed Forces more than any other G8 country.
18. Highest number of MP's that have been arrested for sexual offences.
19. Highest number of MP's that have been sacked for corruption and Fraudulent acts.
20. Voted to allow Bankers to have unlimited bonus's even though the bankers caused the crash of 2008.
21. More libraries closed due to council cuts than any other modern country.
22. Ruined and destroyed the Train services by giving private companies tax payers money as subsidies.
23. Voted against Labours creation of the minimum wage.
24. Water companies failing to produce safe drinking water due to profits going to the rich shareholders normally in other countries.
25. Trebled the National Debt whilst giving Tax cuts to the rich.
26. Promised £350 million per week after Brexit for our NHS.
27. Promised 40 brand new hospitals of which one was built.
28. Had a Liar and a Criminal Prime Minister, which is a G8 first.
29. And a Prime minister who crashed the economy and increased the mortgages of hundreds of thousands of people but was in office less time than a Lettuce is on a supermarket shelf.
30. The biggest increase in Foodbanks with some stupid Tories even bragging that they have more foodbanks in their constituency.
31. Broke all their promises on Net Zero and other Green and enviromental policies.
32. Promising to Level Up the North and South, which just meant absolutely nothing. The North is still far poorer in every sense than the South.

33. Increasing the mega rich  people wealth whilst causing the biggest cost of living crisis the UK has ever seen.
34. And finally, wasted billions of Tax payers money on crony PPE contracts for their friends and other Tory donators many of which made millions and invest it in tax havens.
God bless the Tories. The most evil and corrupt party this country has ever seen. It beggars belief that any working class person would ever vote for these self serving corrupt tories.

[TheTide]

Does This YouTube comment summarize well what people are angry about?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Vote Conservatives for more of this:

1. Highest energy bills in Europe.
2. Highest taxes in 70 years.
3. Highest interest rates since 2008.
4. Highest train fares in Europe.
5. Longest waiting lists in NHS history.
6. Raw sewage pumped into rivers and our coastline.
7. Lowest corporate taxes in 50 years.
8. Lowest State Pension in Europe.
9. Highest Immigration both legal and illegal ever.
10. Destroyed the NHS dentist service.
11. Brought the Brexit vote and ruined the country.
12. One failed Prime Minister after another.
13. Worlds shortest in post Prime Minister.
14. More corrupt MP's than any other party in parliament.
15. Europes longest Austerity for the lower paid.
16. Highest Council Tax rates in the World.
17. Reduced our Armed Forces more than any other G8 country.
18. Highest number of MP's that have been arrested for sexual offences.
19. Highest number of MP's that have been sacked for corruption and Fraudulent acts.
20. Voted to allow Bankers to have unlimited bonus's even though the bankers caused the crash of 2008.
21. More libraries closed due to council cuts than any other modern country.
22. Ruined and destroyed the Train services by giving private companies tax payers money as subsidies.
23. Voted against Labours creation of the minimum wage.
24. Water companies failing to produce safe drinking water due to profits going to the rich shareholders normally in other countries.
25. Trebled the National Debt whilst giving Tax cuts to the rich.
26. Promised £350 million per week after Brexit for our NHS.
27. Promised 40 brand new hospitals of which one was built.
28. Had a Liar and a Criminal Prime Minister, which is a G8 first.
29. And a Prime minister who crashed the economy and increased the mortgages of hundreds of thousands of people but was in office less time than a Lettuce is on a supermarket shelf.
30. The biggest increase in Foodbanks with some stupid Tories even bragging that they have more foodbanks in their constituency.
31. Broke all their promises on Net Zero and other Green and enviromental policies.
32. Promising to Level Up the North and South, which just meant absolutely nothing. The North is still far poorer in every sense than the South.

33. Increasing the mega rich  people wealth whilst causing the biggest cost of living crisis the UK has ever seen.
34. And finally, wasted billions of Tax payers money on crony PPE contracts for their friends and other Tory donators many of which made millions and invest it in tax havens.
God bless the Tories. The most evil and corrupt party this country has ever seen. It beggars belief that any working class person would ever vote for these self serving corrupt tories.

If there's any defense that can made, it's that they probably at least know that corporate taxes are an example of taxes. 

[Dr. Cynic]

The Telegraph… less so.

...what in God's name is that even supposed to mean

This woman's previous editorial was titled "Noisy minorities are being allowed to bully the rest of us into silence". 😬

I thought this might have been a joke at first.

But no: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/25/noisy-minorities-allowed-to-bully-the-us-into-silence/

Fascinating woman, fascinating article:
https://www.city-journal.org/article/up-from-liberalism

Good lord, her face could hold an eight day rain.

[Tintrlvr]

Nick Clegg is, per the FT, using his Facebook salary to bankroll the Lib Dem campaign in his former Hallam seat, pumping thousands into the race.

There's something endearingly parochial about a man who has the reach and means to buy US Senators instead throwing cash at a tiny race between two social democrats in Sheffield.

I’ve got a niche prediction that if we lose one seat it’ll be Hallam (Tories voting tactically for the Lib Dem’s like they did in 2015 but didn’t in 17/19) not Bristol Central.

As I pointed out earlier, the Tories have not yet nominated in Sheffield Hallam, and there’s at least some chance that they don’t run a candidate at all. That might be worse for the Lib Dems in winning over Labour voters but probably still better for the Lib Dems than a Tory paper candidate taking 5-10% of the vote.

[RBH]

does the phrase "shy Tory" apply to their candidate selection process more than their voters and we'll find out that they had 130 candidates who they haven't mentioned before Friday

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yet another potential repeat of Australian history-
In 1973 the (legendarily corrupt) NSW Liberal premier called a snap election 6 months early to take advantage of the oil shock and the Whitlam honeymoon ending. It was at such short notice they didn’t even let the electorate branches know to start nominating. Amongst the rush hour the Health Minister mucked up his nomination papers and lodged them late. He was disqualified from the ballot, his high flying career ended and a DLP rando won the seat by default.

[YL]

Nick Clegg is, per the FT, using his Facebook salary to bankroll the Lib Dem campaign in his former Hallam seat, pumping thousands into the race.

There's something endearingly parochial about a man who has the reach and means to buy US Senators instead throwing cash at a tiny race between two social democrats in Sheffield.

I’ve got a niche prediction that if we lose one seat it’ll be Hallam (Tories voting tactically for the Lib Dem’s like they did in 2015 but didn’t in 17/19) not Bristol Central.

As I pointed out earlier, the Tories have not yet nominated in Sheffield Hallam, and there’s at least some chance that they don’t run a candidate at all. That might be worse for the Lib Dems in winning over Labour voters but probably still better for the Lib Dems than a Tory paper candidate taking 5-10% of the vote.

The Tories failing to nominate a candidate in any GB constituency (other than Chorley) would be astonishing, especially if it were one which was regarded as a more or less safe Conservative seat until about 30 years ago. I know it's been suggested that they might actually have selected quite a few of the missing candidates and just not told anyone about them, but if that's not the case they have a lot of candidates to select very quickly. I think it's more likely that they end up with some embarrassing ones than that they don't actually select.

One problem for Labour in Hallam is the date of the election. Parts of the constituency have quite a high student population, and in the last three elections, all of which have been in semester time, Labour have worked hard to get their votes. I'm confident the student vote was decisive in 2019, and it's possible that it was even in 2017. This election is in university vacation, and while I imagine Labour are trying to set them up with postal votes there's no way the student turnout will be as high.

I doubt the tactical Tory votes for the Lib Dems will be on the same scale as in 2015; the Coalition and Clegg's role in it created very special circumstances then. Also, the Lib Dems had some disappointing results in the recent council elections, though they still comfortably carried the constituency. I'd guess a Labour hold, but I'm not that confident.

If, somehow, there's no Tory candidate, I guess that will help the Lib Dems a little, but I doubt the Tory rump is very Lib Dem friendly. They might vote Reform, except that right now they don't have a candidate either (and I think it's more likely that they genuinely don't find a candidate in time). Maybe they'll end up with the SDP or the Workers Party...