The 2024 cycle's doomer cycle

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes, there is a substantial gap between economic indicators and consumer sentiment and an even bigger gap between economic indicators and Biden's approval on the economy. Biden has decent fundamentals but he is underperforming them because he is an unpopular President and a weak candidate. Yet there's no definitive reason to think that will change. He's only getting older and his approval rating is only getting lower.

Really?

https://twitter.com/gbrew24/status/1801270473822556309

Sunak- His party is losing by 20+ points in the polls right now and may very fall to third place in seats

Trudeau- Down 20 points in the polls

Macron- His party just got wrecked in the EU elections

Scholz- He is third place in the polls , behind even the AFD which is literally a Neo-Nazi Party !


Biden is polling significantly better than they are but that does not change the fact he can do that and still lose comfortably

[Alben Barkley]

It's not just that Biden's polling pretty consistently behind, but also just how high the stakes are that makes me panic. Plus it's just frustrating - it seems like nothing can save Biden at this point. Even if Trump's convicted of a felony, people are just so upset over Gaza that they'll vote for Trump.

I very much doubt Gaza is even a factor for most people when deciding who to vote for.

It may be a factor for two groups: Some strongly pro-Israel, mainly Jewish, voters. And young left-wing/progressive, anti-Israel voters. Somehow Biden has managed to alienate both groups and satisfy nobody. Both of these groups usually lean Democratic (pro-Israel evangelicals excepted). So even if they don’t all switch to Trump in droves, they don’t HAVE to in order to have a major impact, even decide the election if it is close. Everyone keeps acting like everyone can only choose between Biden and Trump, as if third party protest voting/abstaining is not only not an option, but one that HAS NOT ALREADY COST DEMOCRATS MULTIPLE ELECTIONS WITHIN MY LIFETIME!!! I feel like I’m going insane. It’s either me or everyone else. Pretty sure it’s not me because I actually remember this s—t and everyone else keeps acting like it never happened and is not possible. Jesus Christ how are you people on this board and not aware turnout is at least as important as persuasion, probably more?

[wbrocks67]

It's not just that Biden's polling pretty consistently behind, but also just how high the stakes are that makes me panic. Plus it's just frustrating - it seems like nothing can save Biden at this point. Even if Trump's convicted of a felony, people are just so upset over Gaza that they'll vote for Trump.

I very much doubt Gaza is even a factor for most people when deciding who to vote for.

It may be a factor for two groups: Some strongly pro-Israel, mainly Jewish, voters. And young left-wing/progressive, anti-Israel voters. Somehow Biden has managed to alienate both groups and satisfy nobody. Both of these groups usually lean Democratic (pro-Israel evangelicals excepted). So even if they don’t all switch to Trump in droves, they don’t HAVE to in order to have a major impact. Everyone keeps acting like everyone can only choose between Biden and Trump, as if third party protest voting/abstaining is not only not an option, but one that HAS NOT ALREADY COST DEMOCRATS MULTIPLE ELECTIONS WITHIN MY LIFETIME!!! I feel like I’m going insane. It’s either me or everyone else. Pretty sure it’s not me because I actually remember this s—t and everyone else keeps acting like it never happened and is not possible. Jesus Christ how are you people on this board and not aware turnout is at least as important as persuasion, probably more?

Given the recent poll of Jewish voters that shows the same exact result as 2020, no.

[dspNY]

It's not just that Biden's polling pretty consistently behind, but also just how high the stakes are that makes me panic. Plus it's just frustrating - it seems like nothing can save Biden at this point. Even if Trump's convicted of a felony, people are just so upset over Gaza that they'll vote for Trump.

For the umpteenth thousand time...Gaza isn't relevant to the vast majority of voters

[forza nocta]

What strikes me is odd is that Republicans continue to constantly be overconfident every single election, even though the majority of the election cycles in the last 6 years have been awful for them. Democrats continue to bedwet every time, even after they do well. It's wild.

Generic Democrats do well. Joe Biden is not that, he is a very weak candidate

The very weak Joe Biden who earned the most votes in American history in 2020 and is the only person to beat Trump in an election. So weak that the Democratic Party has enjoyed both remarkable unity and electoral success during his term. If that's weak, I'd hate to know what you'd call Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

What strikes me is odd is that Republicans continue to constantly be overconfident every single election, even though the majority of the election cycles in the last 6 years have been awful for them. Democrats continue to bedwet every time, even after they do well. It's wild.

Generic Democrats do well. Joe Biden is not that, he is a very weak candidate

The very weak Joe Biden who earned the most votes in American history in 2020 and is the only person to beat Trump in an election. So weak that the Democratic Party has enjoyed both remarkable unity and electoral success during his term. If that's weak, I'd hate to know what you'd call Trump.

Candidate quality can change, just ask Bill Nelson.

[Sol]

Anyone noticed this pattern here?

1) There is a steady drumbeat of positive developments for Romney: movement in polling, good fundraising, positive economic data, encouraging updates from the campaign. Yet, these things hardly get any discussion on Atlas.

2) A super bad but also arguably unbelievable poll for Romney is released, a la New York Times, Selzer, etc, and it dominates discussions for days.

3) The usual suspects start spamming the forum with doomer troll threads like, "is it too take for Romney to drop out?" or "should the GOP triage Arizona?"

4) Panicked blue avatars hyperventilate, the usual suspects try to calm everyone down.

5) More good news for Romney follows but it just resets things....

....rinse and repeat


Why are Romney supporters expected to be despondent and defeated in spite of his advantages while the people rooting for a failed president never have to be concerned about such a huge liability?

[forza nocta]

What strikes me is odd is that Republicans continue to constantly be overconfident every single election, even though the majority of the election cycles in the last 6 years have been awful for them. Democrats continue to bedwet every time, even after they do well. It's wild.

Generic Democrats do well. Joe Biden is not that, he is a very weak candidate

The very weak Joe Biden who earned the most votes in American history in 2020 and is the only person to beat Trump in an election. So weak that the Democratic Party has enjoyed both remarkable unity and electoral success during his term. If that's weak, I'd hate to know what you'd call Trump.

Candidate quality can change, just ask Bill Nelson.

That was a 6-year gap between elections w/ Bill Nelson, while its been like 3.5 years since Biden took office. And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

[Sol]

And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

"There's no evidence of him being a weak candidate, except the obvious evidence."

Gimme a break on the weak candidate thing. He nearly clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2020 Democratic primary, he underperformed polling and common sense in 2020, and is crashing against a convicted felon and maniac in polling. This is the platonic ideal of a weak candidate!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I genuinely don't know why Democrats doom. Us Trump supporters suffered through the 2016 and 2020 cycle with hope he could pull it off. Biden isn't in a good position but the race is completely within reach. You are better off being optimistic and getting the race wrong than dooming. Sure you might get mocked but you don't waste 5 months of your life each election cycle in stress and worry.

[forza nocta]

And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

"There's no evidence of him being a weak candidate, except the obvious evidence."

Gimme a break on the weak candidate thing. He nearly clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2020 Democratic primary, he underperformed polling and common sense in 2020, and is crashing against a convicted felon and maniac in polling. This is the platonic ideal of a weak candidate!

Well that's one way to phrase all that.

How I see it: Biden decisively won the 2020 Dem primaries, became the first person to beat an incumbent president since 1992 (despite a very polarized environment, not campaigning much, and issues with the left flank), AND is now setting up nicely for a comfortable win in November.

If your only evidence of Biden being a weak candidate is unproven "data" points, then that is very telling.

[Sol]

And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

"There's no evidence of him being a weak candidate, except the obvious evidence."

Gimme a break on the weak candidate thing. He nearly clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2020 Democratic primary, he underperformed polling and common sense in 2020, and is crashing against a convicted felon and maniac in polling. This is the platonic ideal of a weak candidate!

Well that's one way to phrase all that.

How I see it: Biden decisively won the 2020 Dem primaries, became the first person to beat an incumbent president since 1992 (despite a very polarized environment, not campaigning much, and issues with the left flank), AND is now setting up nicely for a comfortable win in November.

If your only evidence of Biden being a weak candidate is unproven "data" points, then that is very telling.

Terms like "weak candidate" are obviously kind of subjective, right? So two people can look at the same information and come away with a different conclusion.

However, I do think it's important to actually consider polls. They're an imperfect measurement, but they're the best gauge we have of where the election actually stands. Ignoring the polls is the kind of thing people do at their peril, as I referenced with my admittedly douchy Mitt Romney post above. And right now the polls are not good, and we have more reason to believe that Trump will underperform in polling than overperform given his past two performances on the ballot. It's prudent and logical to worry, given those data points.

I agree there's still time, and hopefully Biden is able to turn this around -- but we need to actually recognize the world we're living in based on available data, not the world we'd prefer to be living in.

Tl;dr: don't be like this guy

[GAinDC]

I genuinely don't know why Democrats doom. Us Trump supporters suffered through the 2016 and 2020 cycle with hope he could pull it off. Biden isn't in a good position but the race is completely within reach. You are better off being optimistic and getting the race wrong than dooming. Sure you might get mocked but you don't waste 5 months of your life each election cycle in stress and worry.

I totally agree! Very wise

[wbrocks67]

And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

"There's no evidence of him being a weak candidate, except the obvious evidence."

Gimme a break on the weak candidate thing. He nearly clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2020 Democratic primary, he underperformed polling and common sense in 2020, and is crashing against a convicted felon and maniac in polling. This is the platonic ideal of a weak candidate!

Most of this is not true, but ok. Some people truly live in their own delusional world

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And still today, there is no evidence of Biden being a weak candidate outside of muh polls™.

Dems all back him and still enjoy success in elections up and down the ballot. We also didn't see anything abnormal happen to his vote share in the Dem primaries this year.

"There's no evidence of him being a weak candidate, except the obvious evidence."

Gimme a break on the weak candidate thing. He nearly clutched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2020 Democratic primary, he underperformed polling and common sense in 2020, and is crashing against a convicted felon and maniac in polling. This is the platonic ideal of a weak candidate!

Most of this is not true, but ok. Some people truly live in their own delusional world

Maybe "crashing" against Trump is debatable but you have to be delusional to argue he didn't underperform polling in 2020 and that his performance in the first several contests was embarrassing. The Dems had to convince Klob/Buttigieg to drop out to propel him to victory lol

[jred]

It’s a toss-up race that has either side eager to move it out of that classification. So things like the Selzer poll make doomers spiral because they think it’s moved out of toss-up status, but not in their favor

[BlueSwan]

It is not dooming, it is just the cold hard facts. This is 2012 in reverse. National polls are close with a slight Trump edge. Swing state polls clearly favor Trump. AZ/GA/NV look like non-starters for Biden, so he absolutely needs to win WI/MI/PA, where he is trailing slightly and polls have a history of vastly underestimating Trump. Trump was just convicted on 34 felony counts and it didn't even give Biden the usual 14 day bump. Is is very very hard to see what could possibly make voters come to their damn senses. Biden needed a historically broad coalition to JUST edge out Trump in 2020 and he just doesn't have that coalition in 2024. I would LOVE to believe that Biden can win, but it looks really really bad given how steady the polling is.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It's not just that Biden's polling pretty consistently behind, but also just how high the stakes are that makes me panic. Plus it's just frustrating - it seems like nothing can save Biden at this point. Even if Trump's convicted of a felony, people are just so upset over Gaza that they'll vote for Trump.

For the umpteenth thousand time...Gaza isn't relevant to the vast majority of voters

It doesn't have to be. If only has to matter to just enough potential Biden voters in swing states to cost him the election, combined with every other issue that is harming Biden. He won most swing states by the skin of his teeth, he cannot afford to lose any margin to Trump.

[President Johnson]

Yes, there is a substantial gap between economic indicators and consumer sentiment and an even bigger gap between economic indicators and Biden's approval on the economy. Biden has decent fundamentals but he is underperforming them because he is an unpopular President and a weak candidate. Yet there's no definitive reason to think that will change. He's only getting older and his approval rating is only getting lower.

Really?

https://twitter.com/gbrew24/status/1801270473822556309

This is truly insane. You'd wonder how they all got into office via democratic elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes we are very well aware of the Doomers on this website and Trump is gonna make things worse not better. Comparing an Iowa poll to WI and Reynolds won by 30%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, there is a substantial gap between economic indicators and consumer sentiment and an even bigger gap between economic indicators and Biden's approval on the economy. Biden has decent fundamentals but he is underperforming them because he is an unpopular President and a weak candidate. Yet there's no definitive reason to think that will change. He's only getting older and his approval rating is only getting lower.

Really?

https://twitter.com/gbrew24/status/1801270473822556309

This is truly insane. You'd wonder how they all got into office via democratic elections.

Most of them got elected before, or due to, COVID.

The pandemic really changed a lot.