Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[The Mikado]

Excellent news. Either Biden slays and calms everyone down, or he sucks and we replace him at the convention.

He isn't going to be replaced, but I really doubt he craters. Even 50% of his SOTU performance would be solid. If he can repeat this, he's going to roll over Trump.

I strongly suspect Biden will do very well in the debate.

But if he looks old and confused and flops, I think there will be heavy pressure on him to step aside.

You know as well as I do that the most likely outcome is somewhere in the mushy middle of "everyone thought the debate was depressing and no one really scored any major points." Much like the 2020 debates.

[The Mikado]

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

George W. Bush's campaign in 2004 claimed that John Kerry was "The best debater since Cicero."

[The Mikado]

Both bozos will back out if Kennedy's let it. Even if Kennedy sucks, both parties are bipartisan in their efforts to never let a third candidate participate.

Actually, Trump's already said he's fine with it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/trump-debates-rfk-jr.html

So I guess there's a scenario where we get a repeat of the 1980 Reagan-Anderson Debate.

I don't think there's a chance in hell this happens. Biden obviously doesn't WANT RFK Jr on the stage but he wants this way way less as a Trump RFK debate is 100% upside for Trump. He'll be there if it's a three way for the first debate.

[The Mikado]

What the heck? That seems like a bad choice to me. That's like winning the toss and choosing to pick what goal you defend first rather than who gets the ball first. Sure hope they have a good reason for it.

It is weird, though I could imagine on a day with like 45 MPH winds picking goal side being the right call. Maybe there's some sort of equivalent thing for Presidential debates.

[The Mikado]

I expect Biden to do ok and Trump hold his on. So in the end it being a wash.

That's the most likely scenario.

I see it like rolling a six sided die where 1 is a Biden catastrophe, 6 is a Trump catastrophe, and 2, 3, 4, or 5 are washes. Do I expect a wash? Absolutely, I'm giving it a two thirds chance. Is it still important? Absolutely. It could hit the 1 or 6.