United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Epaminondas]

Striking how the Tory seat total collapses so quickly:
24%: 134
23%: 120
22%: 96
21%: 65
20%: 29
19%: 11
18%: 3

The predictions break down when unreasonable boundaries are crossed. See what happens to the Greens if they reach 20% and above.

[Epaminondas]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

Quoted for posterity:

It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

It seems being a party strategist with your reputation on the line makes you more realistic than Atlas posters, who'd have thought.