United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[xelas81]

The thing is if you're the Tories you CANNOT admit this openly. You have to pretend there's still a chance otherwise people will just not vote or vote Reform.

In Australia this is now known as the Zak Kirkup rule. It turns out that conceding an election two weeks before polling day destroys your entire campaign and gives your base no reason to vote for you.

[xelas81]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

He wants to be in NYC for July 4th firework at 9PM EST

[xelas81]

Highlight of the day was a BBC vox pop in Richmond (The Yorkshire one) asking pensioners what they thought about the new quadruple lock- all said they liked it, although with the addition that they wouldn't have been supporting Labour anyway.

I rather think this is the point - the Conservative campaign strategy seems to be shaping up to be:

A) Hold the right flank against Reform.
B) Make sure that unenthusiastic Tory voters who are tempted to abstain show up to vote.

The policies that they’ve released very much seem to be geared towards these two things. I think they’ve pretty much conceded that they’re not going to win back the ‘swing voters’ who voted Conservative in 2019 and 2017, therefore the campaign will have to be about maxing out their share of the 30-odd percent of the electorate who won’t vote Labour under any circumstances (which now seems to skew older than it did historically). Not an election winning strategy (but I think a ‘wet’ campaign that would be applauded by the likes of Andy Street would be far worse), but one that maximises the chances of the Tories ‘only’ losing by a 1997-style margin.

Agreed that Tory goal is not get 1993 PCed.
But their campaign resembles 1993 PC.

[xelas81]

She was the 2019 candidate for Labour, in IDS' seat, which came down to a 1k majority. Decent selection for someone in the NEC's good graces now.

Minor note but surprised that IDS is not retiring.

[xelas81]

It makes sense for new elected Labour MP for Ruralshire West to be very moderate if they want to keep their seat beyond one election.

However to balance it you need Labour MP for Innercity Central to be on the left where hypothetical challenger will be from Labour's left.

[xelas81]

I’m afraid there is no money.

Permanent Secretary to Rachel Reeves on July 5th.

[xelas81]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

[xelas81]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

Seat predictions had Central Suffolk & North Ipswich as potential Labour pickup.

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?search=central+suffolk

[xelas81]

Why would someone who's been an MP since 2005 be dumb enough to do this?

"Tory candidate Philip Davies is latest politician to have bet against himself at election
@MrHarryCole
 reveals, placing an £8,000 bet on losing marginal seat of Shipley."

All of MRPs had Shipley as Labour pickup so I guess he saw the writing on the wall.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/constituencies/E14001472/

[xelas81]

It is hypothetical so take it with grain of salt but interesting survey data that shows significant Green to Labour tactical voting.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49886-one-in-five-voters-say-they-are-voting-tactically-at-the-2024-general-election

Even after losing votes to tactical voting 7% would be all time best results for Greens.

[xelas81]

There are only 11 seats that every constituency-level predictions thinks Tory will hold.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?show=majority-con&2019=con&2024=con
That is smaller than list of seats that every constituency-level predictions thinks Labour or LibDems will gain from Tories.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?show=majority-con&2019=con&2024=lab
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?show=majority-con&2019=con&2024=lib