Fox: Biden +2 H2H, +1 vs field

[HisGrace]

Is it me or do the tracking polls seem less intense this time? As in there's more lag. So we could finally be seeing the effects from the indictment late.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1803559808781467737

[Mehmentum]

In November Biden was down 6 and 3rd parties were taking 21% of the vote.  Now they're taking 14% (7% less), and he's up 1 (7 points better).  There's a good argument that 3rd party voters are coming home to Biden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

In November Biden was down 6 and 3rd parties were taking 21% of the vote.  Now they're taking 14% (7% less), and he's up 1 (7 points better).  There's a good argument that 3rd party voters are coming home to Biden.

Buh Buh but MUH ANN SELZER IS QUEEN /s

[wbrocks67]

Individual candidate trends are interesting. Percentages starting with the oldest Fox poll.

Biden: 35, 37, 38, 38, 40, 43.
Trump: 41, 41, 41, 43, 43, 42.
Kennedy: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10.

Biden gradual rise. Trump flat. Kennedy gradual decline.

This fulfills my theory in that the closer we get, the more Biden consolidates and 3rd parties continue to drop. Trump meanwhile is constantly stock around the same % because most of his die-hards have always been with him.

[wbrocks67]

Actually I take it back, this DOES line up with Fox's state polling, b/c they also have Trump at 27% with black voters here. At least they are consistent lol

[wbrocks67]

Could someone post the demographic crosstabs? I'm wondering if nonwhite voters are starting to come back to the Democrats. Nate Cohn said that most of the movement away from Trump due to his felony conviction would be among young, nonwhite voters who were Trump-curious

I don't have time to do that right now, but the crosstabs are here for anyone who wants to dig them out:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-14-17-2024_National_Cross-Tabs_June-19-Release.pdf

No. Trump still does well with minorities. Biden leads because of strength with whites.

But the 2020 voter gap has all but disappeared. Biden’s 95-4 with his 2020 voters compared to 96-3 for Trump.

I'm not sure how mathematically this can be true at the same time Trump gets 27% of the black vote. You'd have to have Trump basically winning black 2020 non voters. Or Biden somehow winning a ton of white 2020 non voters

[Pericles]

Digging into the poll results, 68% of voters rate the 'future of American democracy' as extremely important to their vote. That is higher than any other issue, including the economy.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Actually I take it back, this DOES line up with Fox's state polling, b/c they also have Trump at 27% with black voters here. At least they are consistent lol

The problem with black voters imo may not necessarily be margin but rather turnout, while these polls may not signal that Trump is gonna get 20-30% of the black vote they could signal depressed turnout among the group.

Still though if this poll is anything to go by he can clearly make it up with other groups.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good poll for Biden.

That said, he'd probably still lose with a 2 pt. margin in the NPV. However, that makes it more easy to gain another 1-2 pts. and he's back in the game. I'd like to see more battleground states polls here. Fox News' pollster is one of the better. Even ranked A on 538.

[Rand]

J O E M E N T U M

[axiomsofdominion]

Good poll for Biden.

That said, he'd probably still lose with a 2 pt. margin in the NPV. However, that makes it more easy to gain another 1-2 pts. and he's back in the game. I'd like to see more battleground states polls here. Fox News' pollster is one of the better. Even ranked A on 538.

Clinton lost by a 5 digit number of votes in the three key states. Seeing as Biden's coalition appears to be a bit more EC friendly, and Clinton only won by 2.1%, Biden would probably win on a 2% margin IMO.

[wbrocks67]

For their part, the Fox poll writers did admit that their poll has underestimated Biden w/ black voters in the past:

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1803786750923289068

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, the conviction hurts Trump, when we vote it's gonna be felt in the voting booth not necessarily in polls, still waiting on MT S race poll

[HisGrace]

In November Biden was down 6 and 3rd parties were taking 21% of the vote.  Now they're taking 14% (7% less), and he's up 1 (7 points better).  There's a good argument that 3rd party voters are coming home to Biden.

If Stein and Cornell West are polling 3% each and Kennedy at 10% (none of which are going to happen on election day) and Trump is only polling at 42% that's a terrible result for him. All this talk of a Trump "comeback" is right wing hot air, he hasn't picked up a single new voter in the past four years or this campaign so far.

[Lief 🗽]

The crosstabs in this poll are insane btw. Biden leads rural voters 50-48 and urban voters are tied 38-38.

[wbrocks67]

The crosstabs in this poll are insane btw. Biden leads rural voters 50-48 and urban voters are tied 38-38.

yeah, this poll is insane. Trump only winning white voters by 5 is equally as insane as Trump getting 27% of the black vote

[President Johnson]

The crosstabs in this poll are insane btw. Biden leads rural voters 50-48 and urban voters are tied 38-38.

yeah, this poll is insane. Trump only winning white voters by 5 is equally as insane as Trump getting 27% of the black vote

#RealignmentElection

So the poll should be treated with caution. Usually Fox polls are relatively good, the crosstabs are just insane this time, however. Meh.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

RFK's trend line in the article (https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may) has a perfectly consistent slope: 15-14-13-12-11-10.

RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.

As someone who voted third-party in 2016, I can testify firsthand that the risk of enabling a dangerous result is greater this time and thus it is in my view harder to actually pull that lever. Biden doesn't have the polling advantage Hillary did and Trump isn't some "what do you have to lose?" relatively unknown quantity, instead the events of 1/6 couldn't be clearer, and with no legitimate way to keep running remaining following a 2024 victory, Trump will launch an organized, successful military coup early in his term and establish a monarchy of him and his descendants and/or close allies. He will do anything but preserve democracy or the two term precedent. And the electorate is realizing this reality more and more every day.

Also Kennedy's Anti-Vax position doesn't help.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The crosstabs in this poll are insane btw. Biden leads rural voters 50-48 and urban voters are tied 38-38.

yeah, this poll is insane. Trump only winning white voters by 5 is equally as insane as Trump getting 27% of the black vote

I know this is probably just a weighting or sampling issue, but the conspiratorialist in me wants to believe that white Trump supporters are telling pollsters that they're black Trump supporters just to screw with the crosstabs.

[Tekken_Guy]

RFK's trend line in the article (https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may) has a perfectly consistent slope: 15-14-13-12-11-10.

RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.

As someone who voted third-party in 2016, I can testify firsthand that the risk of enabling a dangerous result is greater this time and thus it is in my view harder to actually pull that lever. Biden doesn't have the polling advantage Hillary did and Trump isn't some "what do you have to lose?" relatively unknown quantity, instead the events of 1/6 couldn't be clearer, and with no legitimate way to keep running remaining following a 2024 victory, Trump will launch an organized, successful military coup early in his term and establish a monarchy of him and his descendants and/or close allies. He will do anything but preserve democracy or the two term precedent. And the electorate is realizing this reality more and more every day.

Also Kennedy's Anti-Vax position doesn't help.

I see zero chance of that being successful. He failed the last time he tried and I don't think there's any way the military will go along with what Trump's doing. Also I think he's only doing it to stay out of prison, and I think Trump's going to just retire at Mar-a-Lago after a second term.

If MAGA actually finds a way to permanently entrench itself in power past Trump's second term I'll leave this forum forever.

[axiomsofdominion]

RFK's trend line in the article (https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may) has a perfectly consistent slope: 15-14-13-12-11-10.

RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.

As someone who voted third-party in 2016, I can testify firsthand that the risk of enabling a dangerous result is greater this time and thus it is in my view harder to actually pull that lever. Biden doesn't have the polling advantage Hillary did and Trump isn't some "what do you have to lose?" relatively unknown quantity, instead the events of 1/6 couldn't be clearer, and with no legitimate way to keep running remaining following a 2024 victory, Trump will launch an organized, successful military coup early in his term and establish a monarchy of him and his descendants and/or close allies. He will do anything but preserve democracy or the two term precedent. And the electorate is realizing this reality more and more every day.

Also Kennedy's Anti-Vax position doesn't help.

I see zero chance of that being successful. He failed the last time he tried and I don't think there's any way the military will go along with what Trump's doing. Also I think he's only doing it to stay out of prison, and I think Trump's going to just retire at Mar-a-Lago after a second term.

If MAGA actually finds a way to permanently entrench itself in power past Trump's second term I'll leave this forum forever.

Be a bit late for anyone to care who posts on some webforum, eh?

[Tekken_Guy]

RFK's trend line in the article (https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may) has a perfectly consistent slope: 15-14-13-12-11-10.

RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.

As someone who voted third-party in 2016, I can testify firsthand that the risk of enabling a dangerous result is greater this time and thus it is in my view harder to actually pull that lever. Biden doesn't have the polling advantage Hillary did and Trump isn't some "what do you have to lose?" relatively unknown quantity, instead the events of 1/6 couldn't be clearer, and with no legitimate way to keep running remaining following a 2024 victory, Trump will launch an organized, successful military coup early in his term and establish a monarchy of him and his descendants and/or close allies. He will do anything but preserve democracy or the two term precedent. And the electorate is realizing this reality more and more every day.

Also Kennedy's Anti-Vax position doesn't help.

I see zero chance of that being successful. He failed the last time he tried and I don't think there's any way the military will go along with what Trump's doing. Also I think he's only doing it to stay out of prison, and I think Trump's going to just retire at Mar-a-Lago after a second term.

If MAGA actually finds a way to permanently entrench itself in power past Trump's second term I'll leave this forum forever.

Be a bit late for anyone to care who posts on some webforum, eh?

What's Trump going to do, shut down TalkElections?

[heatcharger]

What's Trump going to do, shut down TalkElections?

We’re taking a look at that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the best poll for Biden yet aside from the Navigation poll that has Biden up 5