RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.
As someone who voted third-party in 2016, I can testify firsthand that the risk of enabling a dangerous result is greater this time and thus it is in my view harder to actually pull that lever. Biden doesn't have the polling advantage Hillary did and Trump isn't some "what do you have to lose?" relatively unknown quantity, instead the events of 1/6 couldn't be clearer, and with no legitimate way to keep running remaining following a 2024 victory, Trump will launch an organized, successful military coup early in his term and establish a monarchy of him and his descendants and/or close allies. He will do anything but preserve democracy or the two term precedent. And the electorate is realizing this reality more and more every day.
Also Kennedy's Anti-Vax position doesn't help.
I see zero chance of that being successful. He failed the last time he tried and I don't think there's any way the military will go along with what Trump's doing. Also I think he's only doing it to stay out of prison, and I think Trump's going to just retire at Mar-a-Lago after a second term.
If MAGA actually finds a way to permanently entrench itself in power past Trump's second term I'll leave this forum forever.
