French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron has dissolved the National Assembly, per BBC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, yeah. It's on.

It's is going to be Interesting.

[Blair]

pourquoi?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

pourquoi?

I don't think this wasn't on anyone's bingo card.

[Storr]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why are we having this rash of rashly called elections?

[Zinneke]

Why are we having this rash of rashly called elections?

You hinted at it yourself in another thread : too clever by half political advisors who think they are outsmarting everyone's expectations

The OG guy to do this is Chirac though.

[Agonized-Statism]

Sacrebleu, what a twist, hon hon hon

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

[oldtimer]

pourquoi?

I think it's to reopen the possibility of cohabitation governments.

The pattern since 2002 is because Presidential and Parliamentary elections happen at almost the same time, the President also had control of Parliament.

This breaks the electoral link between the two, allowing the possibility of the President and PM being of different parties.

It would prevent LePen from holding absolute power.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

Presumably the date of the first round and then the date of the runoff. Months first then days.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The most consequential European Parliament elections yet before the results are even officially announced? Insane move.

[Storr]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

Presumably the date of the first round and then the date of the runoff. Months first then days.

Those dates confirmed, according to Politico EU:

"French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament on Sunday, following his party’s crushing defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European election.

The first round will take place on June 30. The second will be on July 7."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

Presumably the date of the first round and then the date of the runoff. Months first then days.

It's not particularly legible, so I would alter it (and probably note the year as well).

[Antonio the Sixth]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

The election dates, June 30th and July 7th.

Yes, that's right. Just three weeks of campaigning.

[Former President tack50]

Why are we having this rash of rashly called elections?

Maybe everyone saw Sanchez last year and are trying to copy him?

[Zinneke]

He's maybe read a bit of electoral history - when has an incumbent PM actually won the Presidency in recent history? Every time they were undermined for being the "junior" usurper vs the statesmanlike President, yet carrying the can for all the social problems.

RN will disintegrate once they are in power at any level.

Why are we having this rash of rashly called elections?

Maybe everyone saw Sanchez last year and are trying to copy him?

He is far more unpopular than Sanchez.

[Flats the Flounder]

So French PM Bardella probably? Uh oh

[Oryxslayer]

Either will end up being a total success, or a total failure, no in between. And the results should not be the sole way one evaluates the outcome. Unleashing voter anger now and not later may end up benefiting Macron's successor in 2027, but we would only be able to hypothetically know that with hindsight.

[Logical]

Three weeks to nominate candidates, campaign and vote is insane.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

[Skye]

why

[President Johnson]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

[Hash]

Unless my understanding of the code électoral is wrong, there's no legal way for there to be a first round on June 30:

Article L157
Les déclarations de candidatures doivent être déposées, en double exemplaire, à la préfecture au plus tard à 18 heures le quatrième vendredi précédant le jour du scrutin.
(Declarations of candidacy must be submitted, in duplicate, to the prefecture no later than 6 p.m. on the fourth Friday preceding polling day.)

In 2022, for a June 12 first round, the candidacy deadline was May 20. Moreover, there's a two week (rather than one week) gap between both rounds in the expat constituencies, which would require a first round in the expat seats on June 22-23.

The candidacy deadline for a June 30 first round would have been... June 7.

[Cassius]

Maybe he just wants to use a crushing defeat as an excuse to resign and piss off into the consulting/book tour/speech making world for a bit, before resurfacing in some EU role a few years down the line.