United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[beesley]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

BST = British Summer Time - one hour ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), our standard timezone.

We've been doing daylight savings since 1916.

So, 10 o'clock pm in the UK 🇬🇧 ➡ 11 o'clock pm on the Continent 🇪🇺

And is it correct that the announcement of the results is handled differently in the UK than in other countries? I.e. the interim results won't keep getting tallied up (like in the US) or projected (like in Germany), only the final tally will be published instead. Right?

Yes! The first official result you hear reported from each seat will be the complete result.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though in practice you can get a pretty good idea of how individual seats are looking from a combination of the exit polls and early declarations from other seats; and a very good idea from rumours at the count (because whilst it takes several hours to count all the votes, activists sampling at the count will usually have a decent estimate of the overall result within about an hour of counting starting, even if the smarter ones are keeping it to themselves.)

[Alcibiades]

Traditional meaningless polling day anecdote time: when I voted this morning, my polling station was the busiest I’ve ever seen it or any other, though this was the first time I’ve been to vote during what looked like the pre-work rush (had only ever gone in the afternoon or evening before).

[Mike88]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

BST = British Summer Time - one hour ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), our standard timezone.

We've been doing daylight savings since 1916.

So, 10 o'clock pm in the UK 🇬🇧 ➡ 11 o'clock pm on the Continent 🇪🇺

And is it correct that the announcement of the results is handled differently in the UK than in other countries? I.e. the interim results won't keep getting tallied up (like in the US) or projected (like in Germany), only the final tally will be published instead. Right?

Yes! The first official result you hear reported from each seat will be the complete result.

In Europe, only UK, Ireland and Portugal use BST.

Also, any news on turnout? If it as expected, lower or higher?

[TheTide]

Northern Ireland is, I think, the one part of the UK in which turnout figures can be seen throughout the day.

https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/1808836161017724974

[Punxsutawney Phil]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

BST = British Summer Time - one hour ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), our standard timezone.

We've been doing daylight savings since 1916.

Ah. Thanks for clarifying. I learned something new today.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

(because whilst it takes several hours to count all the votes, activists sampling at the count will usually have a decent estimate of the overall result within about an hour of counting starting, even if the smarter ones are keeping it to themselves.)

One of the best uses of party activists, and such an odd concept to other countries that count much quicker. Much more demanding job in Australia and Ireland though, where they’re expected to keep track of preference flows and exhaustion rates!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Northern Ireland is, I think, the one part of the UK in which turnout figures can be seen throughout the day.

https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/1808836161017724974

Does Britain not even do nationwide turnout reports? I guess its election administration is stuck in the early 19th century just like its constitutional structure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is, surprisingly, a final poll. It's by Number Cruncher Politics (Matt Singh's outfit). They don't poll often (haven't since 2022) but do have a GE track record: they did pretty well in 2019. Numbers are: Lab 41, Con 23, Ref 13, LDem 11, Greens 7, SNP 2.

[Tintrlvr]

Northern Ireland is, I think, the one part of the UK in which turnout figures can be seen throughout the day.

https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/1808836161017724974

Does Britain not even do nationwide turnout reports? I guess its election administration is stuck in the early 19th century just like its constitutional structure.

The British seem to subscribe to the philosophy of less information being better, which has its own merits. (What do on-the-day turnout reports or partial results actually add other than drama, anyway?)

[Sir Mohamed]

This might be the last day of Sunak as PM. Great day for the UK.

My final prediction would be Labour wins 400+ seats and 41% of the vote. Tories get 22% and Reform 15%.

[Logical]

Turnout likely to be lower than 2019. Probably somewhere between 58-63%. Will make counting slightly faster.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout likely to be lower than 2019. Probably somewhere between 58-63%. Will make counting slightly faster.

However, I suspect the first declarations to be a bit slower. Those racing northeast seats grew compared to last decade so their electorates are still likely to be larger than in 2019.

[Mike88]

Turnout likely to be lower than 2019. Probably somewhere between 58-63%. Will make counting slightly faster.

Are postal votes included in this estimate? I read that there will be around 10 million postal ballots in this election.

[Sir Mohamed]

Turnout just around 60%? That's around a usual prez election before 2020.

[Logical]

Turnout likely to be lower than 2019. Probably somewhere between 58-63%. Will make counting slightly faster.

Are postal votes included in this estimate? I read that there will be around 10 million postal ballots in this election.

Yes.

[Roblox]

My prediction, for what it's worth

vote share (Great Britain)
Labour: 40%
Conservatives: 22%
Reform: 15%
Lib Dems: 11%
Greens: 6%
SNP: 3%

Seats
Labour: 443
Conservatives: 100
Lib Dems: 57
Reform: 3
Green: 3
Plaid: 3
Speaker: 1

[soundchaser]

I think Cons in third is probably too much to hope for at this point (although if pollsters have been herding, who knows?), but I'll take Cons under 100, please.

[wbrocks67]

Am I the only one who gets a real 'last minute red wave' influx that we got in 2022 in the last minute polling here that shows Labour dipping? I've heard people are tactical voting, which seems like it could be true, but also feels very 2022-y where some pollsters are hedging their bets a bit.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Northern Ireland is, I think, the one part of the UK in which turnout figures can be seen throughout the day.

https://twitter.com/Saraita101/status/1808836161017724974

Party agents and their representatives are allowed to request the turnout figures from each polling station every hour (though they don't usually bother) but I think that right is limited to them.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Am I the only one who gets a real 'last minute red wave' influx that we got in 2022 in the last minute polling here that shows Labour dipping? I've heard people are tactical voting, which seems like it could be true, but also feels very 2022-y where some pollsters are hedging their bets a bit.

I do have that suspicion. Polling on don't knows throughout the campaign hasn't showed much evidence of them leaning towards the Conservatives, but pundits have consistently expected the polling to start narrowing at every turn. Maybe it finally has and the UK's pollsters are both perceptive and saintly. Maybe there is another explanation.

[Oryxslayer]

Am I the only one who gets a real 'last minute red wave' influx that we got in 2022 in the last minute polling here that shows Labour dipping? I've heard people are tactical voting, which seems like it could be true, but also feels very 2022-y where some pollsters are hedging their bets a bit.

I do have that suspicion. Polling on don't knows throughout the campaign hasn't showed much evidence of them leaning towards the Conservatives, but pundits have consistently expected the polling to start narrowing at every turn. Maybe it finally has and the UK's pollsters are both perceptive and saintly. Maybe there is another explanation.

However, in terms of data, the reasons for the last minute red wave in 2022 is weirdly  data point in favor of the Tories. 2022 was partially because of a bunch of bogus GOP partisan polls, and partially cause the good pollsters had a real self-selection bias for those most energized to participate; GOP partisans especially noticeable among hard-to-reach demographic groups.

I don't think the former is really an issue here, because the big names in polling have boxed out any space for upstarts. Though there has been a surge of questionable MRPs from good outfits in light of YouGov's past successes, which is why I have avoided all those who are trying that format for the first time.

The second though I suspect is very much an issue. However, the loudest groups are to nobodies surprise, Reform UK and send-a-message rather than win-a-seat Green voters. You can spot this enthusiasm by the variations in polling method between outfits. The boring do-your-duty big party foot soldiers who will always show up, albeit there are many more red ones than blue ones this time, are the ones getting less weight than they should.

All this is to say I also suspect things will be a bit off if you saw my prediction, albeit in a way that reinforces the big 2.5 (off 'tactical behavior' if compared vs the polls) and limits the impact of minor challengers to areas with personalities or their own tactical machines. But theres only a few hours to go, and someone somewhere is going to eat a hat...

[YL]

Also, any news on turnout? If it as expected, lower or higher?

Election day turnout rumours in the UK are usually nonsense.

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/oldenoughtosay/status/1808816391077683517

My favorite part of polling day (before the exit poll).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/survation/status/1808888765970096600?s=46