United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[DL]

When will the results be annouced? What time were the results annouced back in 2019?

Exit Poll comes out at 5 PM ET

First actual results will come out about 90 mins after that.

Nice! Thanks!

If Starmer wins, how soon does he become PM and move into #10?

Things move very fast in the UK. Typically the winner of the election meets the King literally the day after the election and takes power instantly

[Blair]

Our TV debates don’t seem too bad now

[YL]

They go for something very 'questionable' even on the turnout.

Honestly, I just don't *get* that site any more. It's like they just plugged the Rutherglen by-election numbers into a swingometer and called it a day.

It's not a swingometer, because that wouldn't show Stirling & Strathallan suddenly becoming Labour's third best seat in Scotland (after Glasgow West and East Renfrewshire). It's because they've incorporated their crazy MRP into their predictions; see also Skipton & Ripon and Pontypridd, among others. It's quite annoying because EC remains the site people tend to use to enter polls into to get seat projections, and you now get the same MRP weirdnesses if you do that.

I think somehow they've allowed too strong a seat level effect in their model, perhaps to try to get the by-election seats and the Green targets right, and so where you get outlying data you get a whole seat predicted to do something very weird.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Our TV debates don’t seem too bad now

I could cry. But I'm on too much Prozac to do so.

At least there will be one election this year with a reassuring outcome...until Reform wins in a landslide in the next election.

[MABA 2020]

Our TV debates don’t seem too bad now

Trying not to think about the terrifying spectre of what will happen in Nov, hey this time next week we'll have the first Labour government of my adult life!

[afleitch]

Our TV debates don’t seem too bad now

Trying not to think about the terrifying spectre of what will happen in Nov, hey this time next week we'll have the first Labour government of my adult life!

Changes of government are rare. I'm nearly 40 and it's only happened twice.

[TheTide]

Our TV debates don’t seem too bad now

Trying not to think about the terrifying spectre of what will happen in Nov, hey this time next week we'll have the first Labour government of my adult life!

Changes of government are rare. I'm nearly 40 and it's only happened twice.

It's rare that it's that rare. In the forty years before then it happened six times.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?search=richmond

Portillo Watch (using this MRP aggregator, fraction is the proportion of winning results, so Hunt only gets one victory in all the MRPs, but Rishi gets ten):


Richmond and Northallerton, Rishi Sunak, PM - 10/12

Godalming and Ash, Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor - 1/12

Braintree, James Cleverly, Home Secretary - 9/12

Hertsmere, Oliver Dowden, Deputy PM - 9/12

Welwyn Hatsfield, Grant Shapps, Defence - 0/12

Cheltenham, Alex Chalk, Justice - 0/12

Melksham and Devizes, Michele Donelane, Science and Industry - 8/12

Louth and Horncastle, Victoria Atkins, Health - 7/12

NE Cambidgeshire, Steve Barclay, DEFRA - 10/12

Portsmouth N, Penny Mordaunt, HoC Leader and Lord President of Council - 1/12

NW Essex, Kemi Badenoch, Business and Trade - 12/12

East Surrey, Claire Coutinho, Energy - 11/12

Central Devon, Mel Stride, Work and Pensions - 2/12

Chichester, Gillian Keegan, Education -  6/12

Forest of Dean, Mark Harper, Transport - 1/12

Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Lucy Frazer, Vulture - 7/12

Basildon and Billericay, Richard Holden, Tory Chairman 6/12

Dumfries and Galloway, Alister Jack, Scotland 4/12

Monmouthshire, David Davies, Wales - 0/12

Caerfyrddin, Simon Hart, Chief Whip - 0/12

Sevenoaks, Laura Trott, Chief Secretary of Treasurer - 12/12

Banbury, Victoria Prentis, AG - 2/12

Salisbury, John Glen, Paymaster General - 6/12

Tatton, Esther Mcvey, "Minister for Common Sense" - 3/12

Tonbridge, Tom Tugendhat, Securities - 11/12

Sutton Coldfield, Andrew Mitchell, Development - 3/12

Plymouth Moor View, Johnny Mercer, Veterans Affairs - 0/12 (EC have this going to Reform for some reason)

Mid Dorset and North Poole, Michael Tomlinson, Illegal Migration - 8/12


Other prominent Tories


Jacob Rees Mogg, NE Somerset and Hanham - 1/12

Liz Truss, SW Norfolk - 7/12

David Davis, Goole and Pocklington - 7/12

Iain Duncan Smith, Chingford Woodfield - 1/12

Peter Bottomley, Worthing West, (Father of the House) - 0/12

Priti Patel, Witham - 9/12

Danny Kruger, East Wiltshire - 11/12

Suella Braveman, Fareham - 10/12

Gavin Williamson; Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - 8/12

Steve Baker, Wycombe, - 0/12

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funniest part is that looking over it is that it... broadly speaking checks out?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Shandy/VK Reform coalition is so funny

[JimJamUK]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrch...

[Germany1994]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrch...

Hm, the numbers for black voters look kinda realistic, but 29 % for the Greens among Pakistani/Bangladeshi people?? Looks kinda doubtful if you ask me.

[afleitch]

The funniest part is that looking over it is that it... broadly speaking checks out?

Need to check the whisky crosstabs 😅

Prosecco absolutely checks out.

[afleitch]

ITN/V finally giving us what we've wanted for decades.

Good to livestream in the early hours.

[Compuzled_One]

ITN/V finally giving us what we've wanted for decades.

Good to livestream in the early hours.

Damn, the '87-'97 music was awesome.

Although, question, how is this different from what it seems like they've done since the 50's?

Edit: Oh, I get it, it's a big mashup of old programmes. Don't know why that wasn't obvious to me.

[pikachu]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrch...

Are there religious splits for Indians?

Also curious if there are any ethnic splits for blacks?

[Mike88]

The ITV 1997 election music wasn't bad either:

2005 was quite dramatic also:

[oldtimer]

The ITV 1997 election music wasn't bad either:

2005 was quite dramatic also:

Nothing beats the 1983 BBC one with the mix of bright 1980's Vector graphics and 70's Rick Wakeman:

Very in your face: Polls! Gains! Swiiiiinnnngs!

[Skye]

Survation with an MRP update:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1806742442429088203

[beesley]

I still like the BBC 2010/15/17 theme, but I guess people felt it too 'corporate' and not 'momentous' enough.

[JimJamUK]

Are there religious splits for Indians?

Also curious if there are any ethnic splits for blacks?

There aren’t any religious splits in this poll for them, but Muslim Indians are strongly Labour (or usually are, not sure this time) and Hindu Indians competitive/Conservative leaning. Sikh are very strongly Labour.

Among blacks, I would guess that Afro-Caribbean voters are more Labour due to history/class, but I’m not certain.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hm, the numbers for black voters look kinda realstistic, but 29 % for the Greens among Pakistani/Bangladeshi people?? Looks kinda doubtful if you ask me.

Yeah, looks a bit like a typically over-engaged YouGov panel. Which is not to say Labour haven't had a real hit amongst this group - they clearly have - but other recent polls have shown over half of Muslim voters still backing the party. And those that don't seem more likely to vote "Gaza Indy" than Green.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There aren’t any religious splits in this poll for them, but Muslim Indians are strongly Labour (or usually are, not sure this time) and Hindu Indians competitive/Conservative leaning. Sikh are very strongly Labour.

There are also class and caste dynamics on top (you aren't supposed to admit the latter, but it's true and quite observable).

Among blacks, I would guess that Afro-Caribbean voters are more Labour due to history/class, but I’m not certain.

More likely to vote full stop.

[YL]

I think somehow they've allowed too strong a seat level effect in their model, perhaps to try to get the by-election seats and the Green targets right, and so where you get outlying data you get a whole seat predicted to do something very weird.

Electoral Calculus update on this:
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1806628150933180456

They still have Reform winning Skipton & Ripon and Labour winning Stirling & Strathallan but not by the sort of margins they did before. They also now have Labour narrowly winning Rother Valley.