Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

From the poll

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is this thread getting quieter a sign that things ain't going great for Russia?

That has certainly been the case in the past.

The front is pretty quiet right now outside of some places in the Donbas and Vovchansk but this thread is mainly quiet because the biggest spam source (jaichind) left after his muting lol

Looks like I might of jinxed it

[Red Velvet]

From the poll

So only Ukraine and Estonia (the Baltics tbh) truly believe in an actual Ukraine War. The others are only insisting on prolonging a war they think it cannot be won because they don’t have to fight it - as polling confirmed European audiences are strongly against sending THEIR military troops to fight in Ukraine.

Even in Poland the combo of Ukraine Loss or Deal Compromise is significantly larger.

Interesting that these countries people also say that THEY aren’t at war with Russia, showing how limited the existing support for Ukraine is. It’s mostly strong but there are clear boundaries that Euros are not willing to pass for Ukraine. Deep down, they mostly don’t care.

Even regarding sending more weapons to Ukraine, you can separate them into distinct batches, considering definite position above +20 net for anything:

1. Support sending more weapons to Ukraine:
- Estonia (+58 net in favor)
- Sweden (+50 net in favor)
- Poland (+48 net in favor)
- UK (+41 net in favor)
- Portugal (+37 net in favor)
- Netherlands (+34 net in favor)

2. Mixed between sending and not sending more weapons to Ukraine:
- Spain (+13 in favor)
- France (+9 in favor)
- Germany (+4 in favor)
- Czechia (+1 in favor)

3. Don’t support sending more weapons to Ukraine:
- Italy (+27 against)
- Greece (+30 against)
- Bulgaria (+39 against)

Regarding these same countries groups prioritizing a Peace Deal between Russia-Ukraine or Supporting Ukraine, you can see the EXACT same order rank, suggesting a correlation between these questions:

- Estonia +49 net in favor of War
- Sweden +33 net in favor of War
- Poland +24 net in favor of War
- UK +22 net in favor of War
- Portugal +14 net in favor of War
- Netherlands +5 net in favor of War

- Spain +1 net in favor of War
- France +6 net in favor of Peace Deal
- Germany +10 net in favor of Peace Deal
- Czechia +13 net in favor of Peace Deal

- Italy +39 net in favor of Peace Deal
- Greece +41 net in favor of Peace Deal
- Bulgaria +44 net in favor of Peace Deal

However, you can see with ALL countries a clear swing towards “support of Peace Deal” from “against sending more weapons”. Which suggests that a significant amount of people - though supporting military weapons to be sent to Ukraine do it under the hopes of helping Ukraine get better leverage when negotiating with Russia and NOT because they want a never-ending war unless Ukraine gets everything.

The trend is that this specific group to change their opinion on sending weapons the longer the war is prolonged and Ukraine / The West demonstrate unwillingness to use their leverage to make a Peace Deal that ends the conflict for good and saves people’s lives. From the most Pro-War to the most Anti-War:

1. Estonia +9 net swing in favor of Peace
2. Sweden +17 net swing in favor of Peace
3. Poland +24 net swing in favor of Peace
4. UK +19 net swing in favor of Peace
5. Portugal +23 net swing in favor of Peace
6. Netherlands +29 net swing in favor of Peace

7. Spain +12 net swing in favor of Peace
8. France +15 net swing in favor of Peace
9. Germany +14 net swing in favor of Peace
10. Czechia +14 net swing in favor of Peace

11. Italy +12 net swing in favor of Peace
12. Greece +11 net swing in favor of Peace
13. Bulgaria +5 net swing in favor of Peace

The LOWEST the swing between these questions, the more STABLE the positioning of the populations is, unlikely to shift much alongside time. It’s interesting that the most Pro-War country (Estonia) and the most Anti-War (Bulgaria) are the ones with the lowest swing as it evidences that those positions are quite consolidated.

However, the support of the other Pro-War nations is the one with the largest swings, evidencing how outside Estonia, the support for Ukraine War tends to be even more shakier than in mostly Anti-War ones. It’s clear where this is all headed towards.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

(Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Donald Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end the war with Russia, warning that any proposal must avoid violating the nation’s sovereignty.

It seems Zelensky accepts that most likely it will be Trump that will be Prez next year and is now trying to lock Trump in in terms of his likely policy on the Russia-Ukraine war.   

Zelensky should study how Japan's Abe handled Trump in late 2016 and early 2017. Trump does not react well to threats but is very vulnerable to flattery.  Zekelsny should start praising Trump and talk about how confident that the current crisis can be contained and resolved under Trump's leadership.

Yeah that would be genius.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is this thread getting quieter a sign that things ain't going great for Russia?

That has certainly been the case in the past.

The front is pretty quiet right now outside of some places in the Donbas and Vovchansk but this thread is mainly quiet because the biggest spam source (jaichind) left after his muting lol

Looks like I might of jinxed it

"might *have*"

[Red Velvet]

Question 1 - Support for sending more weapons to Ukraine (X axis)

Question 2 - Support for War until Ukraine recovers its territories (Y axis)

Based on the population answers to these questions, you can clearly see three different group blobs as I’ve previously mentioned:



And there’s more than 96% direct correlation between the answers to these 2 questions, mathematically showing that they’re indeed linked between all 13 countries as I’ve said before:

[jaichind]

Tucker Carlson announces an interview with Zelensky. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

It would be extremely funny if Zelensky started the interview with “you see it all started in 880 with oleg the wise”

[Woody]

Russians have opened up another front in Kharkov! Sotnytsky Kozachok

https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/50.4208783/35.9197998

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1808649786830008412

[Woody]

"Putin after the meeting with Hungary PM Orban calls withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas, also Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as one of the conditions to end conflict"

https://t.me/tass_agency/258946

[lfromnj]

BBC RU/Meduza estimates 120k Russian dead.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/07/05/a-new-estimate-from-meduza-and-mediazona-shows-the-rate-of-russian-military-deaths-in-ukraine-is-only-growing

[Hindsight was 2020]

BBC RU/Meduza estimates 120k Russian dead.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/07/05/a-new-estimate-from-meduza-and-mediazona-shows-the-rate-of-russian-military-deaths-in-ukraine-is-only-growing

Which doesn’t include the Wagner, mercenary, and DPR/LPR figures

[lfromnj]

BBC RU/Meduza estimates 120k Russian dead.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/07/05/a-new-estimate-from-meduza-and-mediazona-shows-the-rate-of-russian-military-deaths-in-ukraine-is-only-growing

Which doesn’t include the Wagner, mercenary, and DPR/LPR figures

There are other reasons to believe that our estimate based on Probate Registry data might be closer to the true number of deaths: judging by recently-leaked Wagner Group financial documents, our prediction of the total number of soldiers recruited by Yevgeny Prigozhin who were killed was quite accurate. This indicates that the overall mortality estimate obtained by this method should be fairly reliable.

[Hollywood]

BBC RU/Meduza estimates 120k Russian dead.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/07/05/a-new-estimate-from-meduza-and-mediazona-shows-the-rate-of-russian-military-deaths-in-ukraine-is-only-growing

It should be noted that the data is from February 2022 to the middle of 2023.  They give a range of 120,000-140,000 deaths.

However, their data is flawed for a variety of reasons, and they rely on assumptions about probate data that significantly impact their own statistics.  

For example, probate data isn't good for calculating the number of deaths during a war, because many that die in war are presumed 'missing,' as opposed to KIA, for a number of years.  The determination is different between Military Standards and Probate Law. In the US, like in Russia, a missing person is only considered dead after a statutory number of years have passed.  In Russia its five (5) years.  The Russian invasion into Ukraine occurred in 2022. Around 25% of the US Soldiers who died in WW2 are still Missing in Action, which means we still haven't accounted for 80k of 315k soldiers. Around 130,000 Americans were captured, and 11,000 of those men died.  It was impossible to know how many soldiers died after 2.5 years into the war.  Consequently, I don't think that estimating total deaths on the Russian is a simple as assuming that the real number is 70% of what we see in the probate data.  

IMO, Russia has probably lost between 175-225k soldiers including Russo-Ukrainian Separatists and Prisoners.  I would imagine the increased rate in deaths on the author's graph is the result of Russian confirmations of deaths earlier in the conflict in additions to those soldiers that they are immediately declared KIA on a weekly or monthly basis.