2030 redistricting predictions megathread

[Sol]

In terms of KY-03, it should be noted that KY’s own redistricting guidelines, as adopted in 1991, explicitly requires that “communities of interest” be kept as intact as possible. I think any attempt to redraw KY-03 into multiple R-leaning districts will likely not survive court challenges due to the aforementioned guideline.

In terms of Maryland, someone posted elsewhere on this forum that drawing a 8D-0R map would likely jeopardize Steny Hoyer in a primary.

An underreported story as far as Kentucky goes is that trends for Republicans are actually kind of bad in the Lexington area, enough that they felt obliged to put Frankfurt in KY-01 and got kind of messy in the state leg. maps. If these trends continue (massive "if" here), Republicans might already have to make things fairly ugly in Lexington and may not want to go full throttle on Louisville.

[Sol]

Very cool stuff!

Greeneville which leaves more rurals to crack the Charlotte suburbs with and allows overpopulated NC-04 to become more based in Wake County.

I assume you mean Greensboro; Greenville is a small city out in the eastern part of the state.

Overall I think you're basically right on about NC. The big pain point is definitely the Triangle; even now the Republicans have to concede two vote sinks there and it's booming and moving leftward sufficiently to make that hard in 2030. A snake to Greensboro makes a lot of sense; they could also link the excess to the NE or Fayetteville too. Unlike Charlotte, you can't really crack the extra Democrats in that part of the world since there's relatively few ultra-republican areas in that section of the state.

They split Asheville in the 2010 cycle fwiw. That seat is annoyingly on the edge of being competitive, but is a bit more demographically and politically stagnant so the goons in the NCGA probably don't feel the need.

What would the hypothetical partisanship of a pure south of the canal district be?

Surprisingly not as Republican as I suspected; only 50-48 Trump, though with a massive swing from 2016. You'd still have to rate it lean R.

[Sol]

On the flip side, the Appalachian seats (VA-06 and VA-09) will likely be underpopulated which could help make VA-05 a bit bluer by having those seats take in some of the most Republican eastern part of the district.

Do you know if that corresponds to estimates? The northern part of VA-06 seems like the kind of place that would be seeing strong growth from remote or hybrid work, as well as from DMV overspill.