Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I don't know why the Republicans keep doing this. Any time Biden debates without sh**tting himself it seems like a good performance relative to expectations. We also saw this in 2020. Per every poll taken both debates were either plusses for Biden or neutral.

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

I mean those post debate polls also had Hillary winning every debate and Kamala beating Pence. The only time the R won was Pence vs Kaine and even that was somewhat close despite it being a pounding for Kaine.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/TVNewsNow/status/1793786189687726369?t=X89nfkd4tChMm-gJjoxyo...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

They are supposedly going to be seated at a table. In that situation with them being seated so close to each other, even if you "cut someone's mic off", you still might be able to hear them.

I thought Trump insisted on them standing.

Trump agreed to the sitting request. He is old too and probably doesn't want to stand if he doesn't have to.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The first debate in 2020 was horrendous for Trump  and its fresh on people's minds four years later. He really needs to avoid something like that again. I think he was way too comfortable with Chris Wallace during his time in the WH that he didn't expect the usual debate headwinds like he would with a more liberal moderator. The final debate in 2020 was much better for Trump, and hopefully he can replicate something like that again or the 2nd debate with Hillary. Avoid interrupting (cut off mics should help with that), and avoid shouting. People are pretty used to Trump and his mannerisms at this point, so he just needs to stay on the path and that should be enough. It would be really interesting if we see either candidate use Biden's 2020 "Will you shut up man" line.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The first debate in 2020 was horrendous for Trump  and its fresh on people's minds four years later. He really needs to avoid something like that again. I think he was way too comfortable with Chris Wallace during his time in the WH that he didn't expect the usual debate headwinds like he would with a more liberal moderator. The final debate in 2020 was much better for Trump, and hopefully he can replicate something like that again or the 2nd debate with Hillary. Avoid interrupting (cut off mics should help with that), and avoid shouting. People are pretty used to Trump and his mannerisms at this point, so he just needs to stay on the path and that should be enough. It would be really interesting if we see either candidate use Biden's 2020 "Will you shut up man" line.

Fresh in peoples' minds four years later? It was barely fresh on peoples' minds four days later.

Well people obviously don't think about it in a vacuum but when they hear the words "Trump" and "debate" it's still the first thing that comes to mind if that makes sense.