French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07 (user search)
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June 30, 2024, 10:10:55 AM
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  French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07 (search mode)
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Author Topic: French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07  (Read 22060 times)
Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,198


« on: June 09, 2024, 03:46:16 PM »

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

He basically said that he had to give a voice to the people again after such a defeat for pro-EU forces. In a vacuum, an honorable sentiment. Less so when it risks bolstering the far-right.

I think he believes that bolstering them a bit in the short term will mean they end up less bolstered in the longer term. And since them being bolstered in the longer term would be especially bad, it is better to bolster them in the short term.
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Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,198


« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2024, 04:53:04 PM »

If RN wins, is it plausible that this could lead to French aid to Ukraine being cut off? Or would Macron's Presidential foreign policy authority extend far enough to enable him to keep it going even if RN had a majority and wanted to stop it?

I am particularly concerned about what could happen if Trump wins in the US combined with France going wobbly. If Trump wins, Europe will need to step up in a big way as US aid is cut off, or else Ukraine could lose, and then who knows what would come next from Russia after that.
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Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,198


« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2024, 03:52:36 PM »

Wow!

What were Macron and his advisers thinking when they called this election...

Well, first of all, I am not sure his advisors were thinking. Macron was thinking his thoughts. But were his advisors really telling him to do this? If not, they should not be blamed for the thinking.

It seems like the only possible way it could be "going according to plan" is if the plan was intentionally to lose because Macron thinks that the best thing (or at any rate the least bad thing of things that are achievable) is for the RN to win and be forced to govern, with the idea that them being in government (with Macron still there to make sure things don't go too far off the rails) will lower their popularity subsequently.

That's obviously a very risky scheme, even if that was actually the plan in the first place.

If that was not the plan, then it isn't going according to plan.
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