Do you agree that 2022 polls overestimated R due to overestimating turnout of low info R voters?

[David Hume]

It has been assumed that in 2016 and especially 2020 polls underestimated Trump because they failed to capture the low propensity voters who favor Trump, especially in the rustbelt. In 2018, they were accurate since these group didn't turn out as much. And in 2022, they overestimated R since they overestimated the turnout this group. If so, Trump is likely underestimated again in 2024 in states like WI, MI, PA.

This theory may sound reasonable. While it is certainly true that in 2022 this group turned out in a much lower rate than in 2020, I don't find enough evidence o verify that polls overestimated their turnout, to the point that can explain their overall inaccuracy. The polls and exits I checked gave contradictory results.

Moreover, in theory NV should have sizable low info latino voters who would favor R, just like WWC in the rustbelt, who would only turn out in presidential years. However, polls consistently overestimated R.

[iceman]

It has been assumed that in 2016 and especially 2020 polls underestimated Trump because they failed to capture the low propensity voters who favor Trump, especially in the rustbelt. In 2018, they were accurate since these group didn't turn out as much. And in 2022, they overestimated R since they overestimated the turnout this group. If so, Trump is likely underestimated again in 2024 in states like WI, MI, PA.

This theory may sound reasonable. While it is certainly true that in 2022 this group turned out in a much lower rate than in 2020, I don't find enough evidence o verify that polls overestimated their turnout, to the point that can explain their overall inaccuracy. The polls and exits I checked gave contradictory results.

Moreover, in theory NV should have sizable low info latino voters who would favor R, just like WWC in the rustbelt, who would only turn out in presidential years. However, polls consistently overestimated R.

not exactly true, the GOP suppprt was vastly underestimated here in 2020 which was a presidential year.  Some even have Biden leading 7-9% where it only ended up a measly 2%. It’s mostly in midterms where the GOP is hyped in polls only to lose after votes are counted.

[David Hume]

It has been assumed that in 2016 and especially 2020 polls underestimated Trump because they failed to capture the low propensity voters who favor Trump, especially in the rustbelt. In 2018, they were accurate since these group didn't turn out as much. And in 2022, they overestimated R since they overestimated the turnout this group. If so, Trump is likely underestimated again in 2024 in states like WI, MI, PA.

This theory may sound reasonable. While it is certainly true that in 2022 this group turned out in a much lower rate than in 2020, I don't find enough evidence o verify that polls overestimated their turnout, to the point that can explain their overall inaccuracy. The polls and exits I checked gave contradictory results.

Moreover, in theory NV should have sizable low info latino voters who would favor R, just like WWC in the rustbelt, who would only turn out in presidential years. However, polls consistently overestimated R.

not exactly true, the GOP suppprt was vastly underestimated here in 2020 which was a presidential year.  Some even have Biden leading 7-9% where it only ended up a measly 2%. It’s mostly in midterms where the GOP is hyped in polls only to lose after votes are counted.

I was talking about NV.

[iceman]

It has been assumed that in 2016 and especially 2020 polls underestimated Trump because they failed to capture the low propensity voters who favor Trump, especially in the rustbelt. In 2018, they were accurate since these group didn't turn out as much. And in 2022, they overestimated R since they overestimated the turnout this group. If so, Trump is likely underestimated again in 2024 in states like WI, MI, PA.

This theory may sound reasonable. While it is certainly true that in 2022 this group turned out in a much lower rate than in 2020, I don't find enough evidence o verify that polls overestimated their turnout, to the point that can explain their overall inaccuracy. The polls and exits I checked gave contradictory results.

Moreover, in theory NV should have sizable low info latino voters who would favor R, just like WWC in the rustbelt, who would only turn out in presidential years. However, polls consistently overestimated R.

not exactly true, the GOP suppprt was vastly underestimated here in 2020 which was a presidential year.  Some even have Biden leading 7-9% where it only ended up a measly 2%. It’s mostly in midterms where the GOP is hyped in polls only to lose after votes are counted.

I was talking about NV.

I am referring to Nevada

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It has been assumed that in 2016 and especially 2020 polls underestimated Trump because they failed to capture the low propensity voters who favor Trump, especially in the rustbelt. In 2018, they were accurate since these group didn't turn out as much. And in 2022, they overestimated R since they overestimated the turnout this group. If so, Trump is likely underestimated again in 2024 in states like WI, MI, PA.

This theory may sound reasonable. While it is certainly true that in 2022 this group turned out in a much lower rate than in 2020, I don't find enough evidence o verify that polls overestimated their turnout, to the point that can explain their overall inaccuracy. The polls and exits I checked gave contradictory results.

Moreover, in theory NV should have sizable low info latino voters who would favor R, just like WWC in the rustbelt, who would only turn out in presidential years. However, polls consistently overestimated R.

not exactly true, the GOP suppprt was vastly underestimated here in 2020 which was a presidential year.  Some even have Biden leading 7-9% where it only ended up a measly 2%. It’s mostly in midterms where the GOP is hyped in polls only to lose after votes are counted.

I was talking about NV.

NV just has an R polling bias in general. The polls have underestimated Dems there in every race in the last decade and a half. 2020 was an exception, but even then the RCP average was merely accurate and not even Dem biased. The polling error last cycle had nothing to specifically do with 2022, it just exists.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No because its quite well documented that Republicans actually did have a substantial turnout edge in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No because its quite well documented that Republicans actually did have a substantial turnout edge in 2022.

“But muh they weren’t real Republicans”

[David Hume]

No because its quite well documented that Republicans actually did have a substantial turnout edge in 2022.

Not the low propensity R voters. A lot of R who turned out in 2022 voted for Biden in 2020.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Just some food for thought ya'll- If this theory is true, R's are gaining a lot of people who haven't voted republican hardly ever, if at all for president.

[David Hume]

Just some food for thought ya'll- If this theory is true, R's are gaining a lot of people who haven't voted republican hardly ever, if at all for president.

This is not a surprise. In fact, it's much easier for Trump to win non-voters than to persuade Biden voters.