United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Cassius]

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

The main thing making me think that Corbyn starts as the underdog is the very poor track record of even popular local MPs running for re-election as independents (or effectively as such if they had a party label which was just a vehicle for their campaign) after falling out with/being deselected/expelled by the party they were originally elected for (as was alluded to by the mention of Frank Field). In fact, the only such MPs I can think of in the post-war era who were actually re-elected were Eddie Milne in Blyth Valley and Dick Taverne in Lincoln (and he'd won a by-election the year before), both in February 1974 (if I'm missing any, please do let me know!).

Labour’s S.O. Davies won re-election as an independent in Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 after getting deselected on the grounds of age and his numerous run-ins with the Wilson government. Also in Wales, Peter Law was able to transition from holding Blaenau Gwent in the Assembly as a Labour AM to winning the same seat at Westminster in 2005 as an independent, whilst John Marek managed to hang on in his Wrexham Assembly seat for one further term in 2003 after getting deselected by Labour.

[TheTide]

Three of the Tory contingent in Northamptonshire (Heaton-Harris, Leadsom and Ellis) have all announced their retirements in pretty quick succession. The Truss government had a lot of East Anglia MPs in it. It's kind of nice to see such county and regional solidarity.

[Storr]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

For what it's worth, wikipedia now has the number of Conservative retirements at 81, with Leadsom being the latest one added.

[MABA 2020]

Shocked at Gove leaving, they'll miss him

[Filuwaúrdjan]

S.O. Davies was very much 'Independent' Labour though, and was in his last years as an MP (he died two years later in 1972). On those occasions when he was well enough to attend the Commons, he sat right next to the Labour benches and generally followed the Labour whip in divisions (it is known that he was informally given a copy). In one of those odd details so typical of British politics, the Chief Whip of the time, Bob Mellish, would later do exactly the same thing as an 'Independent' Labour Peer in the 1980s and 90s. Manny Shinwell (whose parliamentary career overlapped with Davies's for all but a few years at both ends) also did in his last four years, come to think of it.

[Estrella]

Not quite The Sun 1997, but Daily Mail realizing that Tories are so hopeless (and they should curry favour with the next government) that they are becoming kinda sorta maybe neutral for the campaign really is something.

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1794109174055383078

[Harlow]

Just came across this on YouTube.
Evidently Labour does seem to know very well what it's doing.

I have to hand it to them, the "pork markets" cameo made me laugh.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It's fascinating how Labour can run the 'are you better off than you were 14 years ago' line when 2010 was the middle of the GFC.

I suspect a lot of the general populace don't even remember that much about 2010 and the GFC anymore and they instead remember a general nostalgic view of pre-Brexit politics lol. Voters certainly do have very short memories (especially considering some now-voters were only 4(!) at the time)

Just browsing through the comments on social media, quite a lot of people do bring up things like long NHS waiting times and the disappearance of Head Start as things that have noticeably and materially impacted them in a negative way.

So maybe people do indeed forget the high unemployment but they certainly remember the social programs that New Labour implemented and the Conservatives gutted.

[WD]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/DachshundColin/status/1793973478758195310

I wonder where to next on the National Metaphor Tour.  Given the oncoming devastating landslide about to engulf him… perhaps Aberfan?

[OSR stands with Israel]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Seems like you are getting your wish:

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

[Pericles]

We're already on reset 1.0 of this campaign, how many will we get before it's over?

[Lumine]

I see Sunak's in a mad dash to vindicate Theresa May as a competent campaigner by comparison.

[MABA 2020]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

The first smart decision he's made this campaign

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

In a Canada 1993 style landslide, what seats/areas could we expect the Tories to hold and possibly Reform to gain?

The current Tory campaign is the most febrile campaign I’ve ever seen. Like I thought the double digit seat predictions were way off, but wow. This is just pathetic.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

[TheTide]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

From this, it sounds as if he's about to resign. Not saying it will happen, but there's no doubt a lot of unhappy voices within the party who might have had a word with him or at least with those within his inner circle.

https://twitter.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653

There's already been the talk about letters and the Gove announcement can't have helped matters. Could it be that Gove has taken down (intentionally or otherwise) another Prime Minister?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Already too late for that. Parliament was prorogued today (official Dissolution is next week).

[TheTide]

Already too late for that. Parliament was prorogued today (official Dissolution is next week).

As party leader I was more thinking. I'm not sure how it would play out other than presumably being an almighty headache for Brady et al.

[adma]

Boy, I get this vibe from Rishi Sunak's campaign thus far

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbLDH3Os8HU

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

From this, it sounds as if he's about to resign. Not saying it will happen, but there's no doubt a lot of unhappy voices within the party who might have had a word with him or at least with those within his inner circle.

https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653

There's already been the talk about letters and the Gove announcement can't have helped matters. Could it be that Gove has taken down (intentionally or otherwise) another Prime Minister?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Happy 4th of July (UK)

Funny enough, the 250th anniversary will have a World Cup game in Philadelphia. Imagine if it was England vs the US.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975180143775920

Those numbers. Can't breach 10% amongst under 40's (they got 24% amongst that age group in 1997)

It's extinction level.

My god, 70+ Britons are some real sickos.

[Flyersfan232]

https://youtu.be/TGmTSomnfAM?si=O1RMKlrZ7z6JFVuh

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1794256122527813738