United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rather silly behaviour, though quite different to the main story, so to speak. Still, an essentially immediate suspension is an interesting and inevitably contrast.

[Talleyrand]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

LD gain.

They were on 11% in 2019, so that seems highly implausible.

[YL]

Betting on your own seat is not against any party's rules I think.

I suspect it's illegal. In principle it's not very different from a sportsperson betting on their own side to lose, which is definitely dodgy.

It's also rather stupid.

[oldtimer]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

LD gain.

They were on 11% in 2019, so that seems highly implausible.

Well the predicted large Labour vote has to go somewhere.

[CumbrianLefty]

Betting on your own seat is not against any party's rules I think.

I suspect it's illegal. In principle it's not very different from a sportsperson betting on their own side to lose, which is definitely dodgy.

It's also rather stupid.

Betting against yourself is totally plonkerish behaviour, yes.

Lillee and Marsh are still notorious 43 years on for a reason.

[Skye]

Survation has a poll of Islington North that has Corbyn trailing the Labour candidate by 14%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1805648887002042368

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Betting against yourself is totally plonkerish behaviour, yes.

It's just disrespectful to the Party, both nationally and locally.

[TheTide]

Betting on your own seat is not against any party's rules I think.

I suspect it's illegal. In principle it's not very different from a sportsperson betting on their own side to lose, which is definitely dodgy.

It's also rather stupid.

Betting against yourself is totally plonkerish behaviour, yes.

Lillee and Marsh are still notorious 43 years on for a reason.

There is a cynical calculation in such actions of course. Either you get the outcome you want or you get a financial reward if you don't.

[YL]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

LD gain.

They were on 11% in 2019, so that seems highly implausible.

Well the predicted large Labour vote has to go somewhere.

It's way too late for the Lib Dems (or anyone else not already targeting it) to organise a campaign there. Tory hold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Betting against yourself is totally plonkerish behaviour, yes.

It's just disrespectful to the Party, both nationally and locally.

I has assumed that he bet on him winning, which would be a silly stunt, but yeah that's real dickish stuff (and if he wanted easy money all he would have do is wait a few weeks to be gifted MP salary and benefits?)

Craig's seat is also Dan Poulter's seat - the only Tory "gain" on election night? Although there is the off chance he does a Neale Hanvey and gets in anyway for a surely incredibly embarrassing tenure.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Survation has a poll of Islington North that has Corbyn trailing the Labour candidate by 14%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1805648887002042368

Glad to get a poll from there. I would’ve had Corbyn leading, but leaning against him now with that margin.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will be quite honest here, was not expecting that at all. I was aware of Owen Jones and pals sounding ever more animated about the need for more helpers and support there - but had simply assumed it was to a significant degree expectations management, and JC was at the very least neck and neck.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The usual caveats about constituency polling need to be noted, of course. Given those, well, that's a large enough gap to suggest that Nargund is presently ahead, but not large enough to say much more.

[Compuzled_One]

Survation has a poll of Islington North that has Corbyn trailing the Labour candidate by 14%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1805648887002042368

Yeah, I think it's safe to call this a Labour lockdown with that type of margin.

R-E-S-and-T in peace Corbyn, Jeremy! Doo doo doo do do da da, doo doo doo do do da da.

[oldtimer]

Sticking with gambling as a theme:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

"Cabinet minister claimed he won £2,000 on election bets"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sticking with gambling as a theme:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

"Cabinet minister claimed he won £2,000 on election bets"

The Tories should just completely shut up about gambling. Right now.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Car crash at Rishi's (not Rishi himself though):

https://www.thesun.ie/news/13248352/car-smashes-chequers-rishi-sunak/

What a metaphor for the campaign.

The driver is apparently hurt, but alive and is suspected of drunk driving.

POLICE have sealed off Rishi Sunak’s luxury country manor after a car crashed into the main gate with a 44-year-old man arrested on suspicion of drink driving.

A white Volkswagen Scirocco smashed through bollards before careering through the entrance of 16th century mansion Chequers.

Pictures showed the roof and driver’s door of the white ‘90s coupe torn off near Ellesborough, Bucks.

Thames Valley Police confirmed that the driver, a 44-year-old man from Buckinghamshire, suffered serious injuries and has been taken to hospital, where he remains.

The man was arrested on suspicion of criminal damage and drink-driving.

[beesley]

I had started to think Corbyn was going to lose for some time actually. It seems as if the poll has detected a relatively sizeable number of people who were unaware of Corbyn's suspension, also as expected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even if not totally accurate, this Islington North effort puts the claimed "scientific projections based on canvass returns" from a certain other ex-Labour independent into perspective doesn't it.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Even if not totally accurate, this Islington North effort puts the claimed "scientific projections based on canvass returns" from a certain other ex-Labour independent into perspective doesn't it.

Just add a bar chart based on that and he could be a Lib Dem (not that they’d accept him, of course).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Even if not totally accurate, this Islington North effort puts the claimed "scientific projections based on canvass returns" from a certain other ex-Labour independent into perspective doesn't it.

Shaheen is obviously not winning, but when co-workers brought up the election last week, a mostly disengaged cynic from Stella Creasy’s constituency spontaneously namechecked her. Wouldn’t be shocked to see her crack (low) double digits.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

So Vote Compass (one of those who do you align with style quizzes, predominately based in Australia and Canada) has done a quiz from the UK.

I got the following:

https://votecompass.uk/result?i=04615316e0dc0b93048a2d7b9c0d8d&r=34IMvYEN78vEnOZQIfxeN&l=en&n=en

Liberal Democrat 67%
Labour 59%
Conservative & Green 49%
Reform UK 37%

More or less exactly as I expected going in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To-day's polls I believe are: JL Partners Lab 41, Con 25, Ref 15, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3, Savanta Lab 42, Con 21, Ref 14, LDem 10, Green 5, SNP 3, YouGov Lab 37, Con 19, Ref 18, LDem 13, Green 6, SNP 3.

Savanta also have a poll of Wales: Lab 49, Con 19, Plaid 12, Ref 12, LDem 5, Green 3

[Blair]

I had started to think Corbyn was going to lose for some time actually. It seems as if the poll has detected a relatively sizeable number of people who were unaware of Corbyn's suspension, also as expected.

Yeah a problem for JC is he doesn’t have an alternative parties vote to rely on; a lot of people will either vote Labour because they always vote Labour, or because they didn’t realise he had been suspended.

[Duke of York]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

Seat predictions had Central Suffolk & North Ipswich as potential Labour pickup.

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/?search=central+suffolk

won't be happening now.